The ice cream shop that makes money when it's cold
28 Wishes sells ice cream in Los Angeles. Below 70°F, sales fall about 20%. The weather is out of their hands. Rent isn't.
So the owners started putting about $20 a day into Kalshi weather markets, taking the cold side. The days that keep customers away now pay something back.
This is hedging. Big companies have done it for decades, buying protection against bad weather, fuel spikes and rising rates. It used to take a broker, a trading desk, and an order size no corner shop could meet.
Kalshi opens it up. Contracts on weather, fuel prices, inflation, tariffs and regulation, starting at a few dollars. Take a position on the outcome that would hurt you. If it hits, the payout softens it. If it doesn't, the contract expires and the good month was the point.

Pro Swing Trader Daily Brief
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Good morning. US stocks rallied hard on Monday, but Bitcoin spent the day whipsawing around last week's open and ended up only slightly higher. This morning, Fed official Waller said a half-point rate hike may be needed in December if October core inflation comes in hot. October CPI is out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Strategy bought again and MARA is still selling. The numbers are in the dashboard below.
I'm writing at about 4:30 a.m. ET, four hours before CPI.
Updates to Monday's edition
Strategy. The Monday filing is out. Details are in Premium and the dashboard.
Veterans Day. The New York Stock Exchange's holiday list has no Nov 11 entry, so stocks are open Wednesday. SIFMA lists Veterans Day as a recommended bond-market holiday, so the bond market is likely closed. Check before trading.
CPI. I gave Trading Economics' monthly consensus as 0.2%. investingLive's preview has the headline at 0.3%. Details below. The year-on-year numbers I flagged are confirmed missing.
The Qatar meeting. I wrote that Trump would meet Qatar's prime minister at noon. Reports now describe a call, not a meeting.
ETFs. Monday's flow isn't in my one reliable per-fund source yet, so the ETF half of the weekend scorecard stays open.
Monday's plan is graded in Premium, below the paywall.
Monday and overnight
Stocks. The Nasdaq Composite was up about 2.6% at 1:53 p.m. ET Monday and the S&P 500 and Dow were each up more than 2% (FXStreet). I couldn't find the closing numbers. Nvidia fell 4% to 6% at one point after its board said its inquiry into CEO Jensen Huang will examine "all available information," but it recovered some of that overnight. Chip names like AMD rose by double digits.
Asia and Europe. South Korea's Kospi is up about 3.7% and Japan's Nikkei about 2.4%. The Topix rose 1.7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng 0.4%, and Shanghai barely moved. European stocks rose across the board (investingLive). I couldn't find DAX or FTSE levels. Dow futures were up 0.5% ahead of CPI.
Oil and gold. WTI slipped under $83, a low since late August, on hopes for peace with Iran. Brent is near $92. Gold is hovering near $4,100 (FXStreet, APAC wrap).
Iran. After a call with Qatar's prime minister, Trump called renewed strikes "quite unlikely." Iran's Mohsen Rezaei called reports of talks "fake news" and demanded the US accept seven conditions, including lifting the blockade (investingLive).
The Fed. In remarks at about 4:00 a.m. ET, Waller said a half-point hike "may be needed" if October core CPI is about 0.3% or higher, and that he'd support a quarter-point hike in December even if inflation improves (investingLive's paraphrase, not a quote). Fed funds futures had December at about 84% before his remarks, and investingLive says they jumped to 99% after. I found no remarks from Monday's speakers Bowman, Goolsbee or Barkin.
CPI: what to expect
The consensus. Headline up 0.3% on the month against 0.6% in September, and core up 0.2% against 0.3% (investingLive preview). Morgan Stanley expects 0.2% and 0.19%. Bank of America says a 0.2% core "would still effectively lock in a December move."
No year-on-year numbers. The BLS will not publish the usual annual comparisons because October 2025 data is missing from last year's government shutdown. Trading Economics still lists year-on-year rows. Ignore them.
Why it matters. With December hike odds already high, a soft number may not change the Fed's path. A hot core number could make a bigger hike the debate.
Also today: NFIB small-business sentiment (6:00 a.m.), ADP's weekly number (8:15), Logan (9:35), Schmid and Bowman (1:30 p.m.), a 10-year Treasury auction (1:00 p.m.), and Bowman again at 6:30 p.m. I couldn't find today's earnings list.
Crypto news
Strategy filed its Monday 8-K. It bought Bitcoin again, and the details are in the dashboard row and in Premium.
MARA sold 13,597 BTC for about $1.1 billion over six weeks to pay off loans, and says it plans to sell more (The Block, CoinDesk). Trump Media reported a $410 million third-quarter profit driven by crypto gains. SharpLink reported $751 million of net income on unrealized ether gains.
Binance said it would disconnect miners from its mining pool at 07:00 UTC today, 2:00 a.m. ET. The pool found one block in the past week (CoinDesk). I couldn't confirm the shutdown completed or that Binance's withdrawals have reopened.
The thief. Elliptic says about 117,000 NEAR, worth about $430,000, was routed through six memecoins created Nov 5 to 7 and since abandoned. It says the stolen funds never move directly from a buying wallet to a collecting wallet (The Block).
Policy and legal. Coinbase received a full US trust charter from a federal banking regulator. Senator Elizabeth Warren, the incoming chair of the Senate Banking Committee, vowed scrutiny of prediction markets and Trump family crypto ventures. The Ethereum Foundation and Vitalik Buterin were sued over a firing. Coinbase, Kalshi and Payward back the CFTC in a lawsuit over single-stock perpetual futures (The Block, CoinDesk).
Altcoins. SOL is near $85, XRP near $1.08, HYPE near $74 and BNB near $687 (CoinDesk and Decrypt tickers, undated).
ETFs: Monday isn't in yet
TFTC's per-fund table ends at Friday and was last checked at 9:00 p.m. ET Sunday, so Monday's flow isn't in it. A Decrypt homepage summary puts Monday at about a $201 million outflow and calls it a third straight day. I couldn't verify that on the article, so I'm not scoring it. Friday's total and last week's are in the dashboard and in Premium. I couldn't find Ether ETF flows for Monday.
Where Bitcoin stands

Bitcoin is about 0.6% under this week's open and Ether about 1.2% under theirs. Both have recovered from Sunday's lows but not from Monday's early ones, and neither followed stocks higher on Monday.
Market dashboard

BTC | $75,259 (Monday 7 p.m. ET close) · +0.68% · about $74,290 at 4:20 a.m. ET |
BTC Monday range | low $73,636 (3 a.m. hour) · high $75,477 (10 a.m. hour) |
ETH | $2,132 (Monday close) · +0.32% · about $2,100 at 4:20 a.m. ET |
Funding rate (OKX, 8h) | BTC +0.0100% · ETH +0.0041% |
Open interest | OKX BTC perps $2.62B (35,291 BTC) |
BTC ETF flow | Monday not posted yet · Friday −$411.9M · last week −$1.28B (TFTC) |
Stablecoins (USDT + USDC) | $246.5B · 7-day −$3.3B |
Whale line | Strategy bought 1,036 BTC (8-K, Nov 9) · MARA sold 13,597 BTC in six weeks |
Fear & Greed (alternative.me) | 32 (fear) · Monday 29 |
WTI · Brent · Gold | under $83 · about $92 · about $4,100 |
Open interest is the total value of futures contracts still open. It's about 1% above Monday morning, so traders are still adding positions. The data doesn't say which side.

Ether's funding rate is positive again after a negative reading on Monday. Bitcoin's is at the +0.0100% level it sat at on Thursday.
Today and the rest of the week (ET)
Today: CPI at 8:30 a.m. is the main event. The plan below covers it.
Wednesday is Veterans Day, with stocks open and bonds likely closed. No Treasury auction is listed.
Thursday: jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., expected near 191K but I couldn't confirm it. Hammack (9:00), Barr (10:00), Goolsbee (11:30), Daly (1:10 p.m.), Williams (6:30 p.m.), and a 30-year auction at 1:00 p.m.
Friday: October PPI at 8:30 a.m. I couldn't pin down the consensus: Trading Economics' columns are unlabeled. Bowman (10:50) and Daly (noon).
Next week: CFTC positioning on Monday Nov 16, with the Q3 13F deadline the same day, retail sales Tuesday Nov 17, and FOMC minutes Wednesday Nov 18 at 2:00 p.m. The next FOMC meeting is Dec 8–9.
Today's takeaway
Bitcoin sat out a stock rally and is being traded around one level, this week's open, while the market waits for CPI. Stocks and oil have moved, and Bitcoin hasn't, which says the weak link is crypto's own flows and not the macro mood.
The line above is this week's open, then Monday's high. Below, it's this morning's low, then Monday's low. A hot core number is the bigger risk today, because the Fed has already said what it would do.

Yesterday's result: the "break" case from Monday's plan triggered at 3 a.m. and reached one of its four zones, and then the "higher" case triggered at 10 a.m. and reached two of its four. The break's own "wrong if" line fired.
Today in Premium:
Monday's plan, graded. A whipsaw: both sides triggered, and what the yellow band did.
28 BTC key levels, each with its source, redrawn around the new range.
Order book walls: the big bids under the lows, a triple of equal asks, and what happened to yesterday's walls.
Liquidation clusters: the short side has grown.
A plan for CPI at 8:30 a.m., in both directions, with a line for after the 7 p.m. close.
Whales & institutions: Strategy's filing, MARA's selling, and who is underwater.
Options and funding check.
🔒 Scenario C: BTC hourly close below $7█,███ → next zones $7█,███ and $7█,███
Premium readers get all of this below 👇


Monday's plan was written at about 2:00 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $74,250. A was "higher" (an hourly close above $74,756). B was "range" ($74,172 to $74,756). C was "break" (an hourly close under $74,172). The daily close was at 7 p.m. ET, Tuesday 00:00 UTC. The ETF half of the weekend scorecard is still open: Monday's flow isn't confirmed.
C · break: triggered at 3 a.m., reached one of four zones, then failed. The 2 a.m. hour closed at $73,770, under the trigger and clear of the yellow band ($74,098 to $74,246), so the break was clean. The first zone, $74,000, was reached. The second, $73,477, was missed by about $160: the low was $73,636 in the 3 a.m. hour. The third and fourth were not reached. C's "wrong if" line (a daily close back above $74,756) fired: the close was $75,259.
A · higher: triggered at 10 a.m., reached two of four zones. The 7 a.m. and 9 a.m. hours closed at $74,816 and $74,787, both inside the yellow band ($74,681 to $74,831), so neither counted. The 10 a.m. hour closed at $75,431, clear of the band, which confirmed the trigger. The zones were $75,035 and $75,453, both reached by a high of $75,477 (the second by about $20). The third, $75.7K, and the fourth, $76,256, were not. A's "wrong if" line (an hourly close under $74,172) never fired.
B · range: not wrong by its own test, but left from both sides. The daily close was above B's top ($74,756) and under B's wrong-if limit ($75,545).
ETH: A's first zone, $2,125, was reached (the high was $2,149), and the rest were not. C's first zone, $2,089, was reached (the low was $2,080), and the rest were not. ETH's negative funding didn't produce a squeeze.
What we got right: the yellow-band rule. Two A-side closes inside the band didn't count, and the first clean one came three hours later. The pre-Bowman line for a break also named the right first zone ($74,000) and the right second one, which was missed narrowly.
What we got wrong: the ranking. I put C first and said to treat any A signal with caution. C fired first and failed, and A won. The break came at 3 a.m. with no catalyst, and the reversal came with US stocks rallying 2%.
What we learned: a break printed between midnight and 6 a.m. ET, with no data due, is a low-confidence break. I'll mark those as "needs the London open" and rank the opposite side higher when US equities are rallying and a short squeeze is possible.

28 BTC levels, each with its source.
BTC, above:
$82,007: the Oct 19 weekly open (Coinbase).
$81.5K: the average cost basis of the US spot ETFs (Glassnode, The Week On-chain, Oct 28).
$81,131: last Wednesday's high, 10 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$80,053: the Oct 26 weekly open (Coinbase).
$79,107: the Oct 24 low (Coinbase).
$78,232: the Nov 2 weekly open (Coinbase).
$77.7K: the True Market Mean, an on-chain average-cost line (Glassnode, Nov 4).
$77,424: October's close and November's open (Coinbase).
$76,553: the Nov 2 low (Coinbase).
BTC, the middle:
$76,497: the 200-day average (Decrypt, Nov 6).
$76,256: Friday's high, 7 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$76,141: October's low, Oct 30 (Coinbase).
$75.7K: the short-term-holder cost basis, the average cost of coins bought in the last 155 days (Glassnode, Nov 4).
$75,545: a horizontal support. FXStreet says a daily close under it opens $70,000 (FXStreet, Oct 30).
$75,477: Monday's high, 10 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$75,456: Strategy's average purchase price for its 850,364 BTC (Strategy 8-K of Nov 9, via Decrypt).
$75,453: Saturday's low, 4 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$75,035: Thursday's low, 6 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
BTC, below:
$74,756: this week's open, Monday 00:00 UTC (Coinbase).
$74,722: the Nov 6 low, Friday's 10 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$74,066: this morning's low so far, 4 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$74,000: the 23.6% retracement FXStreet named as a stop if the 200-day average broke (FXStreet, Oct 26).
$73,636: Monday's low, 3 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$73,477: Sunday's low, 4 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$73,000: a downside target Wintermute named, and the level BRN says a daily UTC close under could send price toward $70,000 (Decrypt, Nov 6; CoinDesk, Nov 9).
$72,500: the bottom of the $73K to $72.5K support Decrypt flagged (Decrypt, Nov 6).
$70,000: FXStreet's path if $75,545 breaks on a daily close (FXStreet, Oct 30).
$68,000: Wintermute's second downside target (Decrypt, Nov 6).
The order book walls and liquidation clusters have their own blocks below.
ETH:
$2,777: the October high (Coinbase).
$2,448: the Nov 4 high, 10 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$2,377: the Oct 29 high (Coinbase).
$2,327: the Oct 26 weekly open (Coinbase).
$2,311: ETH's realized price, the on-chain cost basis (FXStreet, Oct 24).
$2,290: the Oct 28 low (Coinbase).
$2,272: the Nov 2 weekly open (Coinbase).
$2,252: November's open (Coinbase).
$2,243: Sunday's high, 8 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$2,202: Thursday's low, 6 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$2,170: October's low (Coinbase).
$2,149: Monday's high, 10 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$2,125: this week's open (Coinbase).
$2,089: Sunday's low, 4 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$2,080: Monday's low, 2 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$1,972 and $1,828: deeper supports (FXStreet, Oct 24).
These are standing buy and sell orders on Coinbase (BTC-USD) and Kraken (BTC/USD), taken at about 4:15 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $74,245. They are not trades, and they can be pulled in a blink.
Balance within 1% of the price. Coinbase has 204.5 BTC of bids and 174.8 BTC of asks, about 17% more buy orders. Kraken has 209.1 BTC of bids and 225.5 BTC of asks, about 8% more sell orders. The two venues disagree slightly, so I'd call it balanced.
Walls below (bids):
Coinbase 73,934.31: 52.1 BTC ($3.85M), the biggest bid on Coinbase's book. It sits right on the biggest long cluster in the map below. Smaller bids stack at 73,990.87, 74,000.00 (a round number) and 74,050.56, at 13 to 16 BTC each.
Kraken 74,079.40: 27.0 BTC ($2.00M).
Walls above (asks):
Coinbase 74,539.45: 50.8 BTC ($3.78M), the nearest big ask, about 0.4% above the price.
Coinbase 76,275.00, 76,280.00 and 76,285.00: 20.0 BTC each ($1.53M apiece), five dollars apart. Yesterday there were two such orders. Three equal round orders that close together look like one seller splitting an order (inference).
Kraken 74,990.00: 30.6 BTC ($2.29M), then 28.7 BTC at 76,000.00 and 20.0 BTC at 75,847.90. Kraken also has 26.9 BTC at 74,415.00.
What happened to yesterday's walls. The 49.3 BTC Coinbase bid at 73,869 was traded through (Monday's low was $73,636). The 60.6 BTC bid at 73,512 was never reached, yet it is gone from the top of the book, so it was pulled, cut or moved up to 73,934. The twin 20 BTC asks above Friday's high were never reached and now number three. On Kraken, a 27.0 BTC bid and a 26.9 BTC ask have both shifted by a few dollars since yesterday, which looks like one market maker refreshing its quotes.
Whale or market maker? The first five levels each side are nearly empty, so I see no market-maker ladder, but the Kraken pair above suggests one is working near the price. I can't see who placed the big orders.
Walls to watch (not predictions): the 52.1 BTC bid at 73,934, the 50.8 BTC ask at 74,539 and the triple of asks above $76,000.
Caveats: walls can be spoofed, icebergs hide size, ETF and over-the-counter buying never shows in the book, and two venues are a small slice of the market. These walls are worth $1M to $4M each.
This is CoinGlass's liquidation map for Binance BTC/USDT (Model 1, 24-hour window), read at about 4:20 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $74,290. The bars are CoinGlass's model estimates of where leveraged positions would be force-closed. They are not actual positions. Clusters that the price has already traded through disappear from the map.
The short side has grown. Shorts piled in above the price while Bitcoin stalled under $75.5K on Monday, and the map now holds about $540M of shorts above and about $450M of longs below, each over about 4% of price.
Shorts above (forced buys):
The nearest cluster is $75,087 ($11.2M), then $75,311 ($19.4M) and $75,479 ($11.3M). The biggest is $75,591 ($44.5M). Next come $75,703 ($23.8M), $76,038 ($19.2M), $76,150 ($26.1M) and $76,318 ($23.4M).
Added up from the price: about $23M of shorts by $75,087, about $79M by $75,479, about $128M by $75,591, about $224M by $75,870, about $362M by $76,318, and about $543M up to $78,389.
Longs below (forced sells):
The nearest cluster is $73,968 ($24.8M). The biggest is $73,800 ($30.3M). Then come $73,744 ($22.8M), $73,576 ($26.7M) and $73,464 ($18.9M).
Added up from the price: about $72M of longs by $73,968, about $153M by $73,800, about $251M by $73,464, about $337M by $73,016, about $383M by $72,121, and about $450M down to $71,226.
Which side is the bigger pool? The longs at close range, the shorts in total. Within about 2% of the price, longs below total about $350M and shorts above about $150M. A bigger pool can pull price toward it, but a cluster is fuel, not a floor.
How it lines up with the other blocks:
The first long cluster ($73,968) sits right on the 52.1 BTC Coinbase bid, just under this morning's low. A break of that low would run straight into both.
The biggest short cluster ($75,591) sits just above Monday's high and Strategy's average cost, and the 50.8 BTC ask at 74,539 and the Kraken ask at 74,990 stand in front of it.
Monday's high ($75,477) stopped just under the biggest short cluster ($75,591).
Caveats: Binance BTC/USDT only, one model, a 24-hour window, a single snapshot. A CPI move will change this map within minutes.

These are conditional scenarios, not predictions or buy/sell calls. A "break" needs an hourly close, not a wick. A close within about 0.1% of a trigger is a yellow light: check the next hour. I'm writing this at about 4:35 a.m. ET Tuesday, before CPI. The daily close is tonight at 7 p.m. ET, Wednesday 00:00 UTC.
Where BTC starts: about $74,290, just under this week's open. ETH starts near $2,100.
The drivers, in order of when they land:
Now: Europe's open, and Waller's comments.
6:00 a.m.: NFIB. 8:15: ADP's weekly number.
8:30 a.m.: October CPI.
9:35 a.m.: Logan. 1:00 p.m.: the 10-year auction. 1:30 p.m.: Schmid and Bowman.
After 7 p.m.: the plan below ends at the close. Wednesday has no US data and a likely bond-market holiday, and the Asian open comes before the next edition.
A · Higher: BTC makes an hourly close above $74,756.
BTC: $75,035 → $75,477 → $75.7K → $76,256. ETH: $2,125 → $2,149 → $2,170 → $2,243.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC falls back under $74,066 on an hourly close within a day.
The yellow band is $74,681 to $74,831. The 50.8 BTC sell wall and the first short clusters sit just above it, so a close there needs a second look.
B · Range: BTC stays between $74,066 and $74,756.
BTC: that band, about 0.9% wide, with the current price inside it. ETH: $2,089 to $2,125.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC has a daily close (tonight 7 p.m. ET, Wednesday 00:00 UTC) under $73,636 or above $75,545.
C · Break: BTC makes an hourly close under $74,066.
BTC: $74,000 → $73,636 → $73,477 → $73,000. If the break extends: $72,500 and $70,000. ETH: $2,089 → $2,080 → $1,972 → $1,828.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC slips under $74,066 but the daily close is back above $74,756.
The yellow band is $73,992 to $74,140. The price is about 0.3% above it now. The first long cluster and the 52.1 BTC bid sit just under, so a close inside the band is only a yellow light.
What could drive each one. A: a core CPI at 0.2% or lower, a short squeeze into the clusters at $75.6K, or a fall in oil that lowers inflation fears. C: a core print at 0.3% or more, a Fed speaker repeating Waller's half-point talk, or more ETF outflows. With hike odds this high a soft number may not change much, and a hot one could. I'm ranking B and C above A, with a note that Monday's overnight break reversed.
Before CPI at 8:30, in both directions:
If BTC closes an hour above this week's open before 8:30, then the next zones are Thursday's low and Monday's high. A hot CPI would turn this week's open back into a ceiling.
If BTC closes an hour under this morning's low before 8:30, then the next zones are the round $74,000 and Monday's low. A soft CPI would need to reclaim this week's open first.
After 7 p.m.: the plan ends at the close. If CPI breaks the range, the next two zones to watch are the ones listed above for A or C, and I'll write a Wednesday plan around the data.
What I'd skip: the first 15 minutes after 8:30, the 9:30 US open, and the hour of the 10-year auction.
Five items, each dated, plus what I couldn't find.
1. Strategy's 8-K (filed Monday Nov 9; Decrypt). Strategy bought 1,036 BTC for about $81.9 million between Nov 2 and 8, at an average of about $79,012. It now holds 850,364 BTC, bought for about $64.16 billion, an average of about $75,456. It funded the purchase by selling about 2.05 million MSTR shares for about $284 million and bought back about 1.89 million shares of its STRC preferred for about $188 million. At today's price its whole stack is about 1.6% under water, and this week's purchase is about 6% under water. Strategy's own post and Decrypt give different US-dollar reserve figures, so I'm leaving that out.
2. MARA is selling. It sold 13,597 BTC for about $1.1 billion in six weeks to repay loans and plans to sell more (The Block, CoinDesk, Nov 9 to 10). That's a miner turning into a seller while Strategy buys.
3. ETF flows by fund. TFTC's last confirmed day is Friday Nov 6: −$411.9M, IBIT −$403.0M, BITB −$20.5M, ARKB −$20.1M, GBTC −$11.1M, FBTC +$42.8M. Last week's net was −$1.28B. Monday Nov 9 isn't posted, and I won't score the −$201 million in a Decrypt summary until TFTC has it. The on-chain side of these flows is redemption plumbing, not BlackRock selling. I found no BlackRock or Coinbase Prime transfers.
4. How much the average ETF buyer is up or down. Glassnode's US spot ETF cost basis was $81.5K on Oct 28. At today's price that's about 9% under water, about the same as yesterday. The cost basis moves every day, so treat it as a snapshot.
5. Other treasuries. Trump Media reported a $410 million third-quarter profit from crypto gains, and SharpLink reported $751 million of net income on unrealized ether gains. A Decrypt summary says Bitmine added about $20 million of ETH, which I haven't verified.
Not found today: Arkham and Lookonchain whale transfers, Hyperliquid whales, CryptoQuant holdings, new Glassnode data, Strive, Metaplanet and Twenty One purchases, Q3 13F filings (due Monday Nov 16), and the MSCI decision on treasury companies. The MSCI list was said to be due about two days after Strategy's filing, so it may arrive this week.

DVOL: Deribit's volatility index feed was down when I checked, so I have no fresh reading. Sunday's close was 41.0.
Funding (OKX, 8h): BTC +0.0100%, up from +0.0021% on Monday morning, and ETH +0.0041%, back to positive from −0.0109%. Both sides are paying longs again, which is what I'd expect after a bounce.
Open interest is about 1% higher than Monday morning, so positions keep being added.
Options: I found no options-flow reporting this week. The next monthly expiry is Nov 27. CoinDesk quotes BRN saying that a daily UTC close under $73,000 could trigger momentum-driven selling toward $70,000, and Bitget Wallet saying a reclaim of $80,000 would signal stronger demand.
What I'm watching
Waller's comments, then CPI at 8:30, and the first hour after.
Whether this week's open becomes support or stays a ceiling.
The 52.1 BTC bid at 73,934, and the 50.8 BTC ask at 74,539.
Whether Monday's ETF flow lands in TFTC, and which way it points.
MARA's next sale and any Strategy follow-up, and the MSCI treasury-company list.
Binance's mining-pool shutdown and withdrawals.
Veterans Day hours, then Thursday's claims and Friday's PPI.
The next scorecard is Wednesday's edition, with the CPI result.
— Pro Swing Trader
This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.
Sources: Coinbase Exchange candles · Coinbase order book · Kraken order book · CoinGlass – Liquidation Heatmap · CoinDesk – Bitcoin faces US CPI test · Decrypt – Strategy buys $82M in Bitcoin, buys back $188M of STRC · The Block – Binance hack launderers mint memecoins · The Block – Coinbase, Kalshi, Payward back CFTC · CoinDesk – Bitcoin drops, then pops · investingLive – US CPI preview · investingLive – Fed's Waller on a half-point hike · investingLive – Asia-Pacific market news · FXStreet – Nasdaq soars on Monday · FXStreet – WTI slips below $83 · NYSE – holiday calendar · SIFMA – holiday schedule · Trading Economics – US calendar · TFTC – BTC ETF flows, November 2026 · Glassnode – Week 44 · Glassnode – Week 43 · SEC – Form 13F FAQ · FXStreet – Top 3 price predictions (Oct 30) · FXStreet – Bitcoin tests $80K support (Oct 26) · FXStreet – technical levels · Decrypt – Bitcoin hits 11-week low · OKX – funding and open interest · DefiLlama – stablecoins · alternative.me – Fear & Greed


