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Pro Swing Trader Daily Brief
Friday, October 30, 2026
Good afternoon. This edition is late: I missed the 7 a.m. slot, and I'm writing at about 3:15 p.m. ET, 45 minutes before the US stock close. Every number below is as of then. Tomorrow's edition will update it.
Yesterday I gave you three paths for Bitcoin. It took the first one for six hours, and then it took one I hadn't listed.
After the 8:30 a.m. data, Bitcoin rose to $81,890 at midday Thursday. At about 4:30 p.m., money started leaving Binance's wallets. By Thursday's 8 p.m. close Bitcoin was at $77,780, down 4.27% on the day. This afternoon it's near $76,400.
The Binance hack: what we know
Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, lost an estimated $6.3 billion from a hot wallet, a wallet kept online to handle withdrawals. It's the largest crypto theft on record, according to CoinDesk's headline. The money left in a burst of about 20 minutes, mostly Bitcoin, Ether, USDT and USDC (CoinDesk).
The timeline, in ET:
Thursday, about 4:30 p.m.: the blockchain-analytics firm Arkham flagged outflows from Binance wallets and said the hack looked like it was still going. At 4:40 p.m. Bitcoin fell under $80,000 (CoinDesk).
5:53 p.m.: Tether froze over $1.57 billion of USDT and Circle froze over $800 million of USDC (CoinDesk).
6:55 p.m.: Binance suspended withdrawals.
7:07 p.m.: Ripple froze $200 million. At 7:17 p.m. the lender Aave froze its lending markets. It reopened them Friday morning and said the protocol wasn't affected.
8:36 p.m.: Binance said it would cover all losses with company funds.
Friday, 11:40 a.m.: co-CEO Richard Teng said Binance has set aside more than $6.34 billion, about $5 billion of it already held in the affected assets. He said customer funds weren't touched, and that the attack was complex and involved more than one person. A company spokesperson said about $3 billion has been frozen (CoinDesk).
How it happened, as Binance describes it: the attacker used an Ethereum feature called EIP-7702 to get approval over a hot wallet, then used a self-destruct step to wipe its traces. Binance first blamed a compromised engineer's laptop, then said it found more breach points than that (CoinDesk).
What we don't know yet:
Who did it.
How much is lost after the freezes.
Whether withdrawals restart on time. Teng hopes for Sunday, about 40 hours after his Friday comment. Deposits are still open (CoinDesk).
CoinDesk's data shows crypto futures liquidations jumped fourfold to $1.57 billion. Bitcoin made up $522 million of that and Ether $361 million.
Friday: tech joined in
Stocks were already soft on Thursday. The S&P 500 fell 0.31% to 7,720 and the Nasdaq fell 1.38% to 26,185 (Motley Fool). Alphabet fell about 12.5% (investingLive), and Amazon fell 4.25% before its report, then dropped about 6% after it. Its earnings per share and revenue both missed, and capital spending was $77.3B against $57.4B expected (CoinDesk, investingLive).
Friday made it worse:
Intel fell as much as 29% at midday after weak guidance (CoinDesk).
Nasdaq was down 3.4% and the S&P 500 down 2.2% at 2:17 p.m. ET (CoinDesk).
Coinbase was down about 12% at $138 after Thursday's results. Strategy was down 11% at $129 after it disclosed its CFO is leaving (CoinDesk).
Gold was down 3.5% and silver down 6.1% at 2:17 p.m. (CoinDesk).
The one green spot: the equal-weight S&P 500 was up 1.2% at midday. The damage is concentrated in the big AI names. Goldman's AI stock index was down 4.7% (CoinDesk).
Thursday's data wasn't the problem. GDP grew 3.4% against 3.2% expected. September PCE inflation came in at 3.6% over the year, as expected, but core PCE rose 0.5% on the month against 0.3% expected. Claims were 194,000 against 199,000 expected (investingLive). The 10-year yield fell to about 4.93% by Thursday evening, and traders cut December hike odds to below 80% from nearly 90% (CoinDesk).
Friday's Employment Cost Index showed compensation costs up 0.8% in the third quarter (BLS). I couldn't find the consensus number, so I won't call it a beat or a miss.
Where Bitcoin stands
Thursday's close (8 p.m. ET): $77,780, down 4.27% from Wednesday's $81,249.
Thursday's range (8 p.m. to 8 p.m. ET): $77,699 to $81,890.
Friday so far: a high of $78,635 in the 2 a.m. hour and a low of $76,141 in the 2 p.m. hour (Coinbase).
Now: about $76,400. That's about 4.6% under this week's open of $80,053 and 8.6% under October's open of $83,556.
FXStreet puts the 200-day moving average near $76,400, so Bitcoin is sitting right on it (FXStreet, Oct 30).
Ether closed Thursday at $2,248, down 4.61%, and made a low of $2,170. It's near $2,230 now. On Thursday evening BNB fell 8.2% in 24 hours, XRP 7.4% and Solana 7% (CoinDesk).
ETFs: four inflow days, and Friday is pending
US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $17.1M on Thursday: IBIT +$12.8M, Fidelity's FBTC +$10.5M, Bitwise's BITB +$8.8M, and Grayscale's mini trust −$15.3M (TFTC, SoSoValue). That's a fourth inflow day: $110.3M, $176.0M, $137.3M and $17.1M make $440.7M.
October's total is now +$128.3M (TFTC), with 13 up days and 8 down days. Ether ETFs lost about $105M on Thursday, their fourth outflow day in a row (KuCoin, citing Wu Blockchain, one source).
Friday's numbers come out this evening. I'm not guessing them. If any ETF flow is partial, it won't be in this edition.
Market dashboard
BTC | $77,780 (Thursday 8 p.m. ET close) · −4.27% · about $76,400 at 3:15 p.m. ET Friday |
ETH | $2,248 (Thursday close) · −4.61% · about $2,230 at 3:15 p.m. ET |
Funding rate (OKX, 8h) | BTC +0.0100% · ETH +0.0005% |
Liquidations (24h) | $1.57B (CoinDesk) · BTC $522M · ETH $361M |
Open interest | OKX BTC perps $2.67B (34,841 BTC) · +7.2% vs Thursday morning |
BTC ETF flow | Thursday +$17.1M · October +$128.3M (TFTC) |
ETH ETF flow | Thursday about −$105M |
Stablecoins (USDT + USDC) | $252.1B · 7-day −$2.7B |
Whale line | Binance hot-wallet theft, about $6.3B (see above) |
Fear & Greed (alternative.me) | 30 (fear) · Thursday 51 |
DXY · US 10Y · WTI · Gold | — · about 4.93% (Thu evening) · about $102.3 (Thu) · −3.5% today |
Open interest is the total value of futures contracts still open. It's higher than yesterday even after $1.57 billion of liquidations, so new positions replaced the ones that were wiped out. The data doesn't say whether the new ones are longs or shorts.
Fear & Greed dropped from 51 to 30 in a day.
Today and the weekend (ET)
Friday, 4:00 p.m.: the US stock close. Friday's ETF numbers come out this evening.
Saturday, Oct 31, 8 p.m.: October's close. The month opened at $83,556.
Sunday, Nov 1: US clocks go back one hour at 2 a.m. Binance's target for restarting withdrawals is Sunday. The new week's open (Monday 00:00 UTC) is at 7 p.m. ET.
Tuesday, Nov 3: US midterm elections.
Dec 8–9: the next FOMC meeting.
Today's takeaway
Bitcoin lost its range because of an event no chart could show. The question for the weekend is whether it's a one-time shock or the start of a bigger move, and $76,141 is the first line to watch. It's today's low, and it sits just under the 200-day average near $76,400.
Above, the first resistance is around $77,128, then Thursday's 7 p.m. low of $77,699. Below $76,141, the next support is $75,545.
Yesterday's result: the "relief" case worked, and its own "wrong if" line fired six hours later. The "break lower" case triggered, but from a cause I hadn't listed.
Today in Premium:
Thursday's plan, graded. What I got right and the part I missed.
25 BTC key levels, each with its source, including the 200-day average and the lines under $76K.
ETH under its on-chain cost basis, and which cited levels sit above and below.
A weekend plan: the Saturday 8 p.m. October close, the Sunday Binance restart and the new week's open.
Options and funding check: volatility up from 36 to 42, funding that rose while the price fell, and where Bitcoin was when the Oct 30 options expired.
🔒 Scenario C: BTC hourly close below $7█,███ → next zones $7█,███ and $7█,███
Premium readers get all of this below 👇
Thursday's plan had three branches. A was "relief" (soft PCE or a tech bounce, plus an hourly close above $80,053). B was "range" ($79,586 to $80,694, wrong on a daily close under $79,255 or above $81,081). C was "break lower" (a hot PCE, a tech selloff at the open or a Brent spike, plus an hourly close under $79,586).
A · relief: triggered, then failed. The 10 a.m. hour closed at $81,090, above $80,053. The zones $80,694, $81,081 and $81,715 were reached, with a high of $81,890. The best hourly close was $81,699 and $82,007 wasn't reached. A's "wrong if" line said the move fails if Bitcoin falls back under $79,664 on an hourly close within a day. The 4 p.m. hour closed at $78,744. It took about six hours.
B · range: wrong. The daily close of $77,780 was under $79,255, so B's own "wrong if" fired.
C · break lower: triggered, from the wrong cause. The hourly close under $79,586 came at the 4 p.m. hour. But the condition I'd listed wasn't what did it. Core PCE was hotter than expected (+0.5% against +0.3%) and Bitcoin rose. The tech selloff at the open didn't break it either. The Binance hack did.
C · zones: all five reached. $79,366, $79,255, $79,107, $79,000 and $78,661 were all passed. The 4 p.m. hour's low was $78,177.
ETH: the relief zone $2,327 was reached. $2,390 and $2,408 weren't: the high was $2,377. The break zones $2,276 and $2,205 were both reached, and the low was $2,170.
What we got right: I named the 4 p.m. to midnight window as a separate risk, and the "wrong if" line on A fired as designed.
What we got wrong: I listed Amazon, Coinbase and Strategy as the after-close risks. The actual risk was an exchange security event, which no earnings calendar shows. I also called the 8:30 data the main event, and it moved nothing.
What we learned: a plan that sits just under a weekly open needs one more line for events that have no date: hacks, freezes, forced selling. I'll add it to every plan from now on, along with what each case does if it fires at night.
25 BTC levels, each with its source.
BTC, above:
$86,996: the Oct 5 high (Coinbase daily candle).
$85,000: a horizontal barrier in FXStreet's technical note (AI-assisted, Oct 16).
$84,856: the Oct 21 high (Coinbase).
$83,556: October's open (Coinbase).
$82,313: the average cost basis of the spot ETFs (Glassnode, via CoinDesk, Oct 23).
$82,007: the Oct 19 weekly open (Coinbase).
$81,890: Thursday's high, noon ET hour (Coinbase).
$81,715: Wednesday's high (Coinbase).
$80,694: the Oct 16 low (Coinbase).
$80,053: this week's open (Coinbase).
$79,586: Wednesday's low, 10 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$79,255: Monday's low (Coinbase).
$79,107: the Oct 24 low (Coinbase).
BTC, the middle:
$78,634: Friday's high, 2 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$78,177: the low of Thursday's 4 p.m. hour, when the hack began (Coinbase).
$78,000: the max pain price for the Oct 30 options expiry (CryptoTicker, Oct 29), and a put spread target Derive flagged (CoinDesk, Oct 16).
$77,699: Thursday's 7 p.m. hour low (Coinbase).
$77,128: the 100-day average (FXStreet, Oct 19; it has moved since, and FXStreet says Bitcoin slipped under it).
BTC, below:
$76,634: the lowest hourly close on Thursday, 9 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$76,400: the 200-day average (FXStreet, Oct 30).
$76,141: today's low, 2 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$75,545: a horizontal support. FXStreet says a daily close under it opens $70,000 (FXStreet, Oct 30).
$75,000: a liquidation cluster flagged by Glassnode (Oct 7).
$74,000: the 23.6% retracement FXStreet named as the next stop if the 200-day average broke (FXStreet, Oct 26).
$70,000: FXStreet's path if $75,545 breaks on a daily close (FXStreet, Oct 30).
ETH:
$2,390 and $2,377: Wednesday's high and Thursday's high (Coinbase).
$2,327: this week's open (Coinbase).
$2,311: ETH's realized price, the on-chain cost basis. ETH is below it (FXStreet, Oct 24).
$2,290: Wednesday's low (Coinbase).
$2,259: Friday's high so far, 11 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$2,205: a support from FXStreet (Oct 24). Friday's low so far, $2,204, touched it (Coinbase).
$2,191 and $2,170: the lowest hourly close and the low, both Thursday's 9 p.m. hour (Coinbase).
$1,972 and $1,828: deeper supports (FXStreet, Oct 24).
These are conditional scenarios, not predictions or buy/sell calls. A "break" needs an hourly close, not a wick. A close within about 0.1% of a trigger is a yellow light: check the next hour. I'm writing this at 3:15 p.m. ET, 45 minutes before the US close.
Where BTC starts: about $76,400, right on the 200-day average. ETH starts near $2,230.
The drivers, in order of when they land:
4:00 p.m.: the US stock close. Tech decides it.
This evening: Friday's ETF flows, after four inflow days.
The weekend: thin liquidity, and any Binance news. Stolen coins moving, more freezes or a changed restart date can all hit without a calendar entry.
Saturday, 8 p.m.: October's close. The month opened at $83,556.
Sunday: Binance's target for restarting withdrawals, the clock change at 2 a.m., and the new week's open at 7 p.m. ET.
Monday and Tuesday: the US open (Intel, Nasdaq), then the midterms on Nov 3.
A · Bounce: BTC makes an hourly close above $77,128.
BTC: $77,699 → $78,177 → $78,634 → $79,107.
ETH: $2,259 → $2,311 → $2,327.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC falls back under $76,141 on an hourly close within a day.
B · Chop: BTC stays between $76,141 and $77,128.
BTC: $76,141 to $77,128, with the 200-day average at $76,400 inside.
ETH: $2,170 to $2,259.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC has a daily close (Saturday 8 p.m. ET) under $75,545 or above $78,177.
C · Break: BTC makes an hourly close under $76,141.
BTC: $75,545 → $75,000 → $74,000. A daily close under $75,545 opens $70,000, per FXStreet.
ETH: $2,170 → $1,972.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC slips under $76,141 but the daily close is back above $77,128.
If it's a near-miss. An hourly close between $76,065 and $76,217 is a yellow light, not a break. Check the next hour before treating $75,545 as live.
What could drive each one. A: the US close holds and tech steadies, or Binance restarts on schedule. C: a lower close for the Nasdaq, more hack fallout, or a restart that slips past Sunday. B is what's left, and it's the most likely on a thin weekend. A weekend close without ETF data carries little weight.
Before the 4 p.m. close, in both directions:
If BTC closes an hour above $77,128 before the bell, then the next zones are $77,699 and $78,177. A weak Nasdaq close would turn $77,128 back into a ceiling.
If BTC closes an hour under $76,141 before the bell, then the next zones are $75,545 and $75,000. A tech bounce would need to reclaim $76,400 first.
What I'd skip: the first hour after the bell, and the hour after any Binance announcement.
DVOL is about 41.1 on Deribit, down slightly from Thursday's close of 42.0 and up from 36.1 on Thursday morning. Implied volatility rose about 5 points as the price fell, so options traders are now paying more for protection.
Funding (OKX, 8h): BTC +0.0100%, up from +0.0034% yesterday. ETH +0.0005%. Positive funding means longs are paying shorts, even after a 5% fall. Some longs stayed, or new ones came in.
Open interest: OKX BTC perp open interest is 34,841 BTC ($2.67B), up 7.2% from 32,491 BTC on Thursday morning and 12.4% from 30,998 on Wednesday. It rose while the price fell. $1.57 billion of liquidations didn't reduce it.
Liquidations: $1.57 billion in the period CoinDesk reports. Bitcoin made up $522 million and Ether $361 million, together more than half. I couldn't find a long/short split.
The Oct 30 expiry: the contracts expired at 4:00 a.m. ET. The previews counted about 135,000 BTC contracts, roughly $11B, with max pain at $78,000 (CryptoTicker, Oct 29). Bitcoin traded at about $78,017 at 4 a.m. (Coinbase hourly candle), right on it. I couldn't find Deribit's settlement report, so I don't know the final settled figure.
Whales: the Binance theft is the whale event. Where the stolen coins move next is the thing to watch. No other confirmed wallet move.
What I'm watching
The 4:00 p.m. close, and whether tech keeps falling.
Whether $76,141 holds, and where the daily close lands tonight at 8 p.m. ET.
Friday's ETF flow tonight: a fifth inflow day, or a break?
Binance: the withdrawal restart target on Sunday, the frozen funds, and the final loss figure.
Saturday 8 p.m.: October's close against the $83,556 open.
Stablecoin supply, down $2.7B this week, with Tether and Circle freezing coins.
Tomorrow's edition updates this one, including anything I got wrong.
— Pro Swing Trader
This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.
Sources: Coinbase Exchange candles – prices, opens, highs and lows · CoinDesk – Live updates: Bitcoin falls to $77,000 as Binance exploit combines with tech woes (Oct 30) · CoinDesk – Live updates: Binance confirms security breach, cryptos fall (Oct 29) · CoinDesk – Binance arranges $6.34 billion to cover losses · CoinDesk – Binance uncovers wider breach · CoinDesk – Crypto liquidations jump to $1.57 billion · investingLive – US GDP advance, Q3 · investingLive – US September PCE · investingLive – Americas market news wrap, Oct 29 · Motley Fool – Stock Market Today, Oct 29 · BLS – Employment Cost Index, Sept 2026 · TFTC – BTC ETF flows, October 2026 · KuCoin – Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs on Oct 29 · CryptoTicker – Oct 30 options expiry · FXStreet – Top 3 price predictions (Oct 30) · FXStreet – Liquidations and the Binance freeze (Oct 30) · FXStreet – Bitcoin tests $80K support (Oct 26) · FXStreet – technical levels (Oct 16 to 24) · OKX – funding and open interest · DefiLlama – stablecoins · Deribit – DVOL · alternative.me – Fear & Greed · CoinDesk – bitcoin put spread and options (Oct 16)