Bitcoin fell below $70,000 and touched its 200-week average, with $1.6 billion liquidated and Nvidia's CEO gone

Are you ready to reach holiday shoppers on CTV? For many streamers, the season is already underway.

Last year, according to Roku internal data, holiday content searches on Roku saw an 86% increase during October. And in November, those searches rise an average of 39% weekly. This surging holiday spirit is mirrored by consumer activity, as about half of Roku streamers shopped Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals in 2025.

Meeting those shoppers is easier than you might think. Begin with the seasonal outcome you hope to drive: awareness, online sales, leads, store visits, or another measurable goal. From there, define your audience, upload your creative, set the budget and campaign dates, and establish measurement before launching. You can even create a shoppable ad unit that lets streamers buy with a click of their remote.

Our holiday playbook offers a month-by-month guide to reaching shoppers during this all-important time of year.

First-time spenders get a $5,000 match on the first $5,000 spent with code BEEHIIV5K. Terms apply.

Launch your campaign today.

Pro Swing Trader Daily Brief
Friday, November 13, 2026

Good morning. Bitcoin held a narrow range for most of Thursday. Then, between about 9 p.m. and midnight ET, it dropped through $70,000 and kept going, to a low near $67,500. That's a level it hadn't touched since August, and it sits right on Bitcoin's 200-week average.

It was a long-liquidation event. Well over a billion dollars of leveraged positions were wiped out, and almost nine in ten of them were bets on a rise. Fear & Greed fell to its lowest reading in more than four months (Cointelegraph).

Bitcoin has bounced about $1,600 off the low and is sitting under $70,000 as I write at about 8:10 a.m. ET, with October PPI due at 8:30.

After a morning slide from $73,000 to about $71,500, Bitcoin spent the rest of Thursday between about $71,000 and $72,000, with quiet hourly closes. Starting in the 9 p.m. hour it lost about $700, then about $1,300 in the next hour, and reached the low around midnight. Ether fell from about $2,000 to $1,894.

The outlets blamed a stack of things: a dollar rally (the dollar index is at its highest since April 2025), a Fed hike being priced in after hot CPI, Nvidia's CEO resigning, and ETF outflows. Trump also posted that "We don't need a deal with Iran," and oil jumped (CNBC). I couldn't pin the move to one headline or a single time.

What the data does say is that it was a flush of crowded longs. The biggest single liquidation was a $31.1M Bitcoin long on Hyperliquid, closed out at $72,250 (CoinDesk). Decrypt quoted HashKey's Tim Sun saying the break below $69,000 was triggered by "a concentrated liquidation of leveraged long positions."

The price also touched the 200-week average, about $67,993. That's the first time since Aug 19. An analyst quoted by Cointelegraph says losing the weekly RSI support "opens the door" to a test of the cycle low near $57.7K. That's one analyst's scenario, not a forecast.

Jensen Huang resigned as CEO, president and board member on Thursday, after The New York Times reported on personal matters involving him (CNBC). CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO, and the board is searching for a successor (CNBC, Decrypt). I'm not repeating the allegations, which are the newspaper's reporting.

Nvidia opened Thursday near $151, fell more than 14% at the low, then recovered to close about 4% lower, at $166.19 (Decrypt, Trading Economics). It's up about 2% in premarket. Employees have signed a petition asking the board to bring Huang back, and congressional committees have asked him and Commerce Secretary Lutnick to testify on China chip exports (Decrypt). Earnings were scheduled for Tuesday, Nov 17, and I couldn't confirm that's unchanged after the resignation.

Stocks are shrugging it off. All three indexes slipped Thursday, but the week is still up: the Nasdaq about 3%, the S&P 500 about 3% and the Dow about 2% (CNBC). Futures are slightly higher this morning.

Strategy's stock fell 6.5% on Thursday to $114.41, the day after MSCI confirmed it will drop the company from its indexes after the close on Nov 30 (Cointelegraph). I couldn't find a new statement from Strategy or a new Bitcoin purchase.

Smaller treasury companies are under more pressure. BTCS sold ether at a loss to keep a $64M Aave loan healthy, and CoinDesk calculates its position could become eligible for liquidation near $1,700 per ETH. Nakamoto owes Kraken $165M, more than its entire market value, with about 70% of its coins pledged (CoinDesk).

Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost money again on Thursday (Farside, via CoinDesk), a smaller amount than any of the previous five days. It's the sixth outflow day in a row. Per-fund data isn't out yet, so I can't tell you whether IBIT's streak, nine days through Wednesday, extended to ten.

A smaller number isn't a reversal. Bitfinex said that when past streaks like this ended, Bitcoin's median gain over the next 10 sessions was 6.4% (Cointelegraph). That's history, not a promise.

I couldn't find Ether ETF flows for Tuesday through Thursday.

Bitcoin is about 7.5% under this week's open. Ether is about 7.9% under its own. This is on pace for Bitcoin's sixth straight weekly decline (CNBC).

The other thing worth knowing: the damage was done to leveraged longs, and Bitcoin's funding has flipped negative. That means shorts are paying longs. It doesn't say the low is in.

Open interest is the total value of futures contracts still open. It fell as positions were force-closed, so some of the leverage has been cleared.

What the dashboard says. Everything that was crowded on the long side was cleared out in a few hours. Funding flipped to negative, and the fear gauge is at its low. The ETF number is the one thing that didn't change much, because outflows were already steady.

The dollar index is at a 19-month high (Trading Economics, FXStreet) and the 10-year yield is above 5.1%. Fed funds futures put a December hike near 100%, with about 87% on a quarter point and about 13% on a half point (CME FedWatch via CNBC).

Oil is climbing. Brent is near $96 after Trump's Iran post, and WTI is near $88.8 (Trading Economics, CNBC). Gold is the opposite: it fell to $3,852 on Thursday, its lowest since October 2025 (FXStreet). Higher yields and a stronger dollar are weighing on it, like Bitcoin.

Japan is the other thing to watch. USD/JPY is about 160 and Japan's finance minister talked about "sharp, one-sided moves" and working with the US on "appropriate action" (Bloomberg via CNBC). That's the language that comes before intervention.

Asia was mixed to lower. The Kospi fell 1.0%, the Hang Seng about 1.6% and Australia 0.7%, while the Nikkei rose 0.5%. Europe is down about 0.2%.

The crypto market is worth about $2.39T, down about 4.6% on the day (Decrypt). Ether is the weak spot, but it held up better than Bitcoin Thursday, and the ETH/BTC ratio is about 0.0283, up from 0.0278.

SOL is near $80.7, XRP near $1.02 and BNB near $640. HYPE is the exception, up about 5% near $74 (CoinDesk, Decrypt tickers, undated). I couldn't find a reason for HYPE's move. CoinDesk says the weakest of its top-100 names was AERO, down 8%.

A flush like this clears leverage, but it doesn't buy anything. The price is sitting on a level that has marked turns before, and whether it holds depends on what the ETFs and the dollar do next.

Yesterday's result: the "break" case from Thursday's plan triggered at 9 a.m., about 90 minutes after the plan was written, and its zones were all reached by midnight, mostly after the plan's 7 p.m. cut-off.

Today in Premium:

🔒 Scenario C: BTC hourly close below $6█,███ → next zones $6█,███ and $6█,███

Premium readers get all of this below 👇

Thursday's plan was written at about 7:35 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $73,000. A was "relief" (an hourly close above $73,636). B was "range" ($72,643 to $73,636). C was "break" (an hourly close under $72,643). The daily close was at 7 p.m. ET, Friday 00:00 UTC. I ranked C first, then B, then A.

C · break: triggered at 9 a.m., all four zones reached by midnight. The 7 a.m. hour closed at $72,810, still inside the band. The 8 a.m. hour, which held the 8:30 claims number, closed at $72,415, clear of the yellow band ($72,570 to $72,716). That was the trigger. The next hour closed at $71,556, so the break held. The first zone, $72,500, was reached in the 8 a.m. hour (low $72,160). By the 7 p.m. daily close ($71,370) the other three were not reached: the session low was $71,008, about $992 above $70,000. But the plan's "after 7 p.m." line said a late break would head for the same zones, and it did. The 9 p.m. hour reached $70,000 (low $69,822), the 10 p.m. hour reached $69,000 (low $68,442), and the midnight hour reached $68,000 with a low of $67,555. C's "wrong if" line (a daily close back above $73,636) did not fire.

B · range: wrong, and the new exit rule worked. The 8 a.m. close at $72,415 was a clean close outside the band, and the next hour ($71,556) did not bring the price back inside. That's the hold test from Wednesday's scorecard, and it confirmed the exit at 10 a.m., before the price lost another $1,400.

A · relief: not triggered. The highest hourly close after the plan was $72,810, $826 under the trigger.

ETH: C's first two zones ($2,011 and $2,003) were reached by the 8 a.m. hour (the session low was $1,981). The third, $1,972, was missed by $9 before 7 p.m. and reached in the 10 p.m. hour (low $1,915). The fourth, $1,828, was missed: the low was $1,894.

Order book and clusters. The 49.5 BTC bid at 72,673 was traded through. The 54.3 BTC ask at 73,340 was never reached and is outside the range I captured today. The nearest long clusters ($72,703 and $72,646) were cleared in the 8 a.m. hour. The biggest short cluster ($75,343) was never touched.

What we got right: ranking C first, the hold-test rule, and the line that noted unflushed leverage. Thursday's options block said positive funding after a two-day slide meant long leverage had not been flushed. It was, a few hours later.

What we got wrong: the zone ladder ended at $68,000 with no cited level below it, and the low printed $445 under it. I also treated Nvidia as a skip item, but the crash didn't come from one headline. The plan had no weekend line, and the biggest move came after the 7 p.m. cut-off.

What we learned: keep the hold-test rule for range exits. And when funding stays positive after a slide, write the break case first and add an extra zone beyond the last cited level.

29 BTC levels, each with its source.

BTC, above:

BTC, in the range of the last two days:

BTC, below:

There is no cited level between $67,555 and $57.7K. The long-liquidation clusters below are the only markers in that gap.

ETH:

These are standing buy and sell orders on Coinbase (BTC-USD) and Kraken (BTC/USD), taken at about 7:55 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $69,170. They are not trades, and they can be pulled in a blink.

Balance within 1% of the price. Coinbase has 202.9 BTC of bids and 191.8 BTC of asks, about 6% more buy orders. Kraken has 258.3 BTC of bids and 252.0 BTC of asks, about 2% more buy orders. Both are balanced.

Walls below (bids):

Walls above (asks):

What happened to yesterday's walls. The 49.5 BTC bid at 72,673 was traded through. The 54.3 BTC ask at 73,340 never traded, and it sits outside the range my snapshot covers, so I can't say whether it was pulled. On Kraken, the 27 BTC bid and 27 BTC ask pair has reappeared at 29.0 BTC and 28.9 BTC, each about $3,850 lower than yesterday (bid 72,834.60 to 68,988.30, ask 73,178.90 to 69,324.60), which is about what the price fell. That's the market-maker pair following the price down (inference).

Whale or market maker? The mirrored pairs on Coinbase (a 54.6 and 24.4 BTC pair on the bid, a 53.8 and 24.7 BTC pair on the ask) and the Kraken pair point to market makers on both sides. The first five levels each side are almost empty. I can't see who placed the orders.

Walls to watch (not predictions): the 79 BTC bid stack at 68,843 and the 78.5 BTC ask stack at 69,449.

Caveats: walls can be spoofed, icebergs hide size, ETF and over-the-counter buying never shows in the book, and two venues are a small slice of the market. Most walls here are worth $1M to $4M.

This is CoinGlass's liquidation map for Binance BTC/USDT (Model 1, 24-hour window), read at about 8:00 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $69,170. The bars are CoinGlass's model estimates of where leveraged positions would be force-closed. They are not actual positions. Clusters that the price has already traded through disappear from the map.

The shorts above are now about twice the longs below. Within 2% of the price there are about $215M of shorts above and about $85M of longs below. Within 4% it's about $423M of shorts against about $212M of longs. The long side was cleared overnight, and the shorts were built or rebuilt on the way down.

Shorts above (forced buys):

Longs below (forced sells):

Which side is the bigger pool? The shorts, by a wide margin. A bigger pool can pull price toward it, but a cluster is fuel, not a floor.

How it lines up with the other blocks:

What changed since yesterday: Thursday's nearest long clusters ($72,703 and $72,646) were cleared by the drop. Thursday's biggest short ($75,343) is not among the large clusters today. Most of the shorts now sit between $69,600 and $72,800.

Caveats: Binance BTC/USDT only, one model, a 24-hour window, a single snapshot. The map's price steps are wider today, so my read skips some levels. A move in either direction will change this map within minutes.

These are conditional scenarios, not predictions or buy/sell calls. A "break" needs an hourly close, not a wick. A close within about 0.1% of a trigger is a yellow light: check the next hour. I'm writing this at about 8:15 a.m. ET Friday. The daily close is tonight at 7 p.m. ET, Saturday 00:00 UTC.

Where BTC starts: about $69,170, between this morning's low and the round $70,000 it lost. ETH starts near $1,958.

The drivers, in order of when they land:

A · Relief: BTC makes an hourly close above $70,000.

B · Range: BTC stays between $67,993 and $70,000.

C · Break: BTC makes an hourly close under $67,993.

What could drive each one. A: a PPI number at or under consensus, short covering into the $69,600 to $72,427 cluster zone, or the first ETF day with an inflow. C: a hot PPI, more hike pricing, a stronger dollar, a tenth day of IBIT outflows or more forced selling from treasury companies. I'm ranking B first, then A, then C. The long flush is done, funding is negative and the shorts above are now the bigger pool, which gives a relief bounce room. But six days of ETF outflows and a rising dollar are real. It's a ranking, not a call.

Before the 9:30 open, in both directions:

After 7 p.m.: the plan ends at the close. If a break happens after the close, the next two zones are the ones above for A or C, and I'll write the Saturday plan around the weekly close and the weekend.

What I'd skip: the first 15 minutes after 8:30, and any move in the hour after a Fed speaker. Weekend candles on thin books can be sharp and short-lived.

Five items, each dated, plus what I couldn't find.

1. ETF flows (TFTC through Nov 11, Farside via CoinDesk for Nov 12). Thursday Nov 12: −$47.7M. Per-fund data isn't published yet. Wednesday Nov 11 was −$299.9M, with IBIT −$269.7M, GBTC −$39.1M and MSBT +$9.0M (TFTC). That's six outflow days in a row since Nov 5, about $1.49B in all by my sum of TFTC's five days and Farside's Thursday. IBIT had nine straight outflow sessions through Wednesday, with about $2B out over the run (CoinDesk, Cointelegraph citing Farside). I couldn't find IBIT's Thursday number. The on-chain side of these flows is redemption plumbing, not BlackRock selling. I found no BlackRock or Coinbase Prime transfers.

2. How much the average ETF buyer is up or down. Glassnode's US spot ETF cost basis was $81.5K on Oct 28. At today's price that's about 15% under water, worse than a day ago. The cost basis moves every day, so treat it as a snapshot.

3. Strategy. Its stock fell 6.5% on Thursday to $114.41 (Cointelegraph). MSCI deletes it after the close on Nov 30, and Strategy's own filing says index funds hold about 13M shares, about $1.6B at Wednesday's prices. It isn't forced to sell Bitcoin. Its holdings are unchanged since the Nov 9 8-K: 850,364 BTC at an average of about $75,456, which is about 8% under water at today's price. The Block's headline says JPMorgan reported a 36% rise in its Strategy share holdings; I didn't open the article.

4. Treasury stress. BTCS sold ether at a loss to keep a $64M Aave loan healthy, and holds 46,676 ETH. CoinDesk calculates liquidation eligibility near $1,717 ETH, about 12% below today's price. Nakamoto owes Kraken $165M, more than its market value, with about 70% of its coins pledged. Canaan said Thursday it may sell more Bitcoin to fund buybacks. The earlier MARA sale, 13,597 BTC in six weeks, was in Tuesday's edition.

5. Enforcement. The Justice Department moved to seize about $1.2B tied to the Binance hack. It says North Korean actors stole up to $400M using deepfake video calls (CoinDesk, The Block, Decrypt). A seizure is not a market sale.

Not found today: Arkham and Lookonchain whale transfers, Hyperliquid whale positions, CryptoQuant holdings, new Glassnode data, Ether ETF flows, Metaplanet, and Strategy's response to the MSCI decision. Q3 13F filings are due Monday Nov 16.

DVOL: Deribit's volatility index closed Thursday at 40.1 and is about 40.5 this morning, up from 38.9 on Wednesday. CoinDesk says one-week implied volatility peaked near 43% and settled around 40%.

Skew: the one-week 25-delta skew, which measures how much more puts cost than calls, jumped to about 14% (CoinDesk). That's traders paying up for downside protection after the move. The most-traded Ether option is the $1,800 put expiring Nov 20, about 8% under today's price.

Funding (OKX, 8h): BTC −0.0064% and ETH −0.0076%, down from +0.0092% and +0.0033% yesterday. So shorts are paying longs. It's what a long flush usually looks like, and it can also be the start of a squeeze if the price turns.

Open interest on OKX is about 4.7% lower than yesterday morning, and across the market it fell about 4.6% (CoinDesk). Liquidations were up more than 500% from the day before.

Options: I found no Deribit expiry, put-volume or max-pain data this morning. The next monthly expiry is Nov 27. 21Shares' Matt Mena said on Tuesday that a break under $73,000 could send Bitcoin toward $69,000. That happened.

— Pro Swing Trader

This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.

Sources: Coinbase Exchange candles – prices, opens, highs and lows · Coinbase order book · Kraken order book · CoinGlass – Liquidation Heatmap · CoinDesk – Bitcoin hits 12-week low, liquidations top $1.6 billion · Decrypt – Bitcoin drops to $69K on concentrated liquidation · Cointelegraph – Bitcoin returns to 200-week trend line · Cointelegraph – Strategy stock sheds 5% on MSCI removal · Cointelegraph – IBIT outflows, nine-day streak · Decrypt – Who is Colette Kress · Decrypt – Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom · Decrypt – Nvidia employees push board to bring back Huang · CoinDesk – BTCS sold ether to keep a $64M Aave loan healthy · CoinDesk – Nakamoto owes Kraken $165M · CoinDesk – DOJ targets $1.2B in stolen crypto · The Block – DOJ seize $1.2B Binance hack · The Block – White House picks for SEC and CFTC seats · The Block – Thailand stablecoin cap · CoinDesk – DTCC adds Solana to tokenization plans · CNBC – stock market today · Trading Economics – crude oil, Brent, DXY, gold · FXStreet – analysis · Investing.com – economic calendar · TFTC – BTC ETF flows, November 2026 · Glassnode – Week 44 · The Block – Bitcoin slides below $74,000 · FXStreet – Top 3 price predictions (Oct 30) · FXStreet – Bitcoin tests $80K support (Oct 26) · OKX – funding and open interest · DefiLlama – stablecoins · alternative.me – Fear & Greed · Deribit – DVOL