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Pro Swing Trader Daily Brief
Sunday, October 25, 2026
Good morning.
Last week I told you $80,401 was the floor to watch. Saturday at 10 a.m. New York time, it gave way.
Bitcoin slid under $80,000 to its lowest level in more than a month, touching $79,107 in the 11 a.m. hour (Coinbase). Ether fell to $2,276.
What moved it? Not a chart. It was a Wall Street Journal report that the US is quickly pulling people out of embassies and military bases across the Middle East. The reason, per the report, is intelligence that Iran is preparing attacks on American personnel.
Stocks were closed. Bitcoin wasn't. So crypto took the headline first.
What the report said
CoinDesk summarized the WSJ story this way:
The US is evacuating staff from embassies and bases across the region, well beyond the earlier orders in Saudi Arabia.
A Friday memo from the director of national intelligence said: "Iran has substantially increased efforts to target U.S. personnel."
Separately, the AP reported that the State Department is cutting staff at embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE (The Block).
President Trump has threatened more action against Iran after the early-November midterms. At a Florida rally on Friday he said, "We may do another little 'Epic Fury.'"
I can't verify any of this myself. Nothing had been confirmed as an attack when I checked. These are reports and warnings, not events.
The damage: $404M of longs in about four hours
CoinGlass data, via The Block, shows the size of it:
About $404 million of long positions were liquidated in roughly four hours on Saturday morning, out of about $436 million in total.
Over the full 24 hours, about $815 million was liquidated, up 218% from the day before.
In the same snapshot, Bitcoin accounted for about $158 million (94% longs) and Ether about $137 million (93% longs). The article doesn't spell out the exact time window.
Binance saw about $226 million of the four-hour total, and Hyperliquid about $70 million, almost all longs.
A liquidation is a forced sale. When price falls and leveraged longs run out of margin, the exchange sells them, which pushes the price lower, which forces more sales. Saturday looked like that: two bursts, one at about 10:15 and one at about 11:15, and then a bounce.
Also on Saturday morning, Arthur Hayes wrote on X that he had closed the directional book at his family office, Maelstrom. "I dumped it all," he said, and he plans to sit on the sidelines for now. That's one person's decision, not a market signal, but it got attention.
Where Bitcoin is now
The rebound took it back to about $80,100 by 1 p.m. and it closed Saturday (8 p.m. ET) at $80,770, down 0.38%. Early Sunday it was back near $80,100, and it brushed $79,973.
The week, in one line: Bitcoin opened at $82,007, hit $84,856 on Wednesday, touched $79,107 on Saturday, and is near $80,100. A range of $5,749.
Tonight at 8 p.m. ET is the weekly close. It's under the open of $82,007 and under the ETFs' average cost basis of $82,313 (Glassnode, via CoinDesk). So the buyers who came in through ETFs are, on average, underwater.
Oil and ETFs, in short
Oil: Brent settled Friday at $116.72, up about 3%. Trading Economics calls it the highest since June 2022. The weekend headlines are the reason the market is on edge, and oil futures reopen tonight.
BTC ETFs: Friday's outflow was $137.9M, after $635.5M on Thursday (SoSoValue). The week still finished about +$305M in total, and October is about −$312M.
ETH ETFs: Friday brought a small inflow of $4.4M, but the week was about −$221M. That's headed for a fourth week of outflows in a row (FXStreet, The Block).
Also on the radar
A small fix. Yesterday I wrote that Brent hit a "six-month high." Trading Economics says $116.72 is the highest since mid-2022. Sources differ, so I'll just say "a multi-month high" next time.
More companies are saying no to tokenized stock. Wells Fargo, Cisco and Marvell have now joined the group objecting to OKXICE's plan (CoinDesk).
Strategy and Strive are balancing Bitcoin buying against dividends on the preferred shares that funded nearly 136,000 BTC of purchases (CoinDesk).
Argentina dropped its criminal probe into President Milei over the LIBRA memecoin (CoinDesk).
No confirmed hack or exploit came up in my search for Saturday and Sunday.
Market dashboard
BTC | $80,770 (Saturday 8 p.m. ET close) · −0.38% · about $80,130 at 5:30 a.m. ET Sunday |
ETH | $2,355 (Saturday close) · −1.22% · about $2,324 at 5:30 a.m. ET Sunday |
Funding rate (OKX, 8h) | BTC +0.0094% · ETH +0.0013% (small, positive) |
Liquidations (24h) | About $815M (CoinGlass via The Block, Saturday afternoon) · longs about $404M in the morning burst |
Open interest | OKX BTC perps $2.40B (29,862 BTC) · −2.2% vs Saturday 2 a.m. ET |
BTC ETF flow | Friday −$137.9M · week about +$305M · October about −$312M |
ETH ETF flow | Friday +$4.4M · week about −$221M |
Stablecoins (USDT + USDC) | $254.2B · 7-day −$1.8B |
Whale line | No new confirmed move found |
Fear & Greed (alternative.me) | 54 (neutral) · Saturday 51 |
DXY · US 10Y · Brent · Gold | — · about 5.00% · $116.72 · under $4,000 (all Friday, markets closed) |
Open interest is the total value of futures contracts still open. It's down a little, which fits positions being closed out after a hard morning.
The week ahead (ET)
Tonight, 8 p.m.: the weekly close. Also when oil futures reopen on Sunday evening, and Asia's first trading hours.
Tuesday and Wednesday: the Fed meets (Oct 27–28). The decision is Wednesday at 2:00 p.m., with Chair Warsh's press conference at 2:30. The rate is 3.75% to 4.00%. Markets gave a hold about 93% as of Friday.
Wednesday after the close: Alphabet and Microsoft earnings.
Thursday: the ECB decision, and Amazon after the close.
Friday, Oct 30: the Bank of Japan decision, and the Deribit options expiry at 4 a.m. ET (estimates run $11.7B to $12.2B).
Saturday, Oct 31, 8 p.m.: October's close. The month opened at $83,556.
Sunday, Nov 1: US clocks go back one hour.
One calendar I checked lists US growth and inflation data for Thursday, but I couldn't confirm the date, so I'm leaving it out.
Today's takeaway
Saturday showed what a weekend headline does to a market where only crypto is open: a fast drop, a fast bounce, and a lot of forced selling in between.
The line to watch is $79,107, Saturday's low. Above it, Bitcoin is still in the range it's been in for a week. Below it, the next stops are $79,000 and then $78,661. On the upside, $80,790 and $81,081 are the first hurdles, and the weekly open of $82,007 is the real one.
Yesterday's result: the "break lower" branch was the one that played out. The price trigger fired, two of our four zones were reached, and one of those only on a wick, with the close missing by $15. I'll show you which.
Today in Premium:
The plan to Wednesday's Fed decision. What happens if the Middle East headlines hold, and what happens if they fade?
29 BTC key levels, each with its source, including Saturday's new low.
ETH after $2,276: which cited levels sit above and below.
Options and funding check: the October 30 expiry (about $12B) and what the skew says.
🔒 Scenario C: BTC hourly close below $7█,███ with Brent above $11█ → next zone $7█,███–$7█,███
Premium readers get all of this below 👇
Saturday's plan had three branches. A was "relief" (an hourly close above $81,081). B was "range" (between $80,401 and $81,962, wrong on a daily close under $80,000 or above $82,500). C was "break lower" (Iran headlines escalate or Brent climbs, plus an hourly close under $80,401).
C · break lower: it was the live branch. The macro condition was met by the evacuation reports. The price trigger fired in the 10 a.m. ET hour on Saturday, which closed at $80,100, under $80,401.
C · zones: two of four reached, one by a wick.
$80,000: reached. The low of the 10 a.m. hour was $79,707.
$79,664–$79,676: reached on a wick, not on a close. The low was $79,107, but the 11 a.m. hour closed at $79,691, just $15 above the top of the zone. By the near-miss rule that's a yellow light, and the next hour recovered.
$79,000: not reached. The low of $79,107 was $107 short.
$78,661 and below: not reached.
C · "wrong if" (daily close back above $81,081): not triggered. The close was $80,770.
A · relief: not triggered. The best hourly close after the plan was $80,770.
B · range: broken on the way down. The low of $79,107 was $1,294 under the bottom edge. The "wrong if" lines never fired, since the daily close of $80,770 was back inside the range and above $80,000.
ETH: both zones reached. The plan listed $2,325 and $2,311–$2,313. ETH hit both and went to $2,276, short of $2,204 (Coinbase).
The drivers: the first one on the list, "Iran headlines this weekend," was the one that hit. Brent and the ETF number weren't the cause this time.
What we got wrong: I wrote Brent's high as "six-month" and a source says it's the highest since mid-2022. I also expected any move to wait for Monday's open. It came on Saturday morning, when thin weekend liquidity amplifies a headline, and about $404M of longs were exposed to it.
What we learned: when two sources disagree on a label, I'll use the less specific one. And weekend plans should assume the news can land on Saturday morning, not Monday.
29 BTC levels, each with its source.
BTC, above:
$86,996: the Oct 5 high (Coinbase daily candle).
$85,000: a horizontal barrier in FXStreet's technical note (AI-assisted, Oct 16), and the focus of October 30 call trading (CoinDesk).
$84,856: Wednesday's high (Coinbase).
$84,062–$84,262: the Oct 12–14 highs (Coinbase).
$83,678: the Oct 12 open (Coinbase).
$83,556: October's open (Coinbase).
$83,076: the Oct 19 high (Coinbase).
$82,500: support flagged by CoinDesk, lost last Thursday.
$82,313: the average cost basis of the spot ETFs (Glassnode, via CoinDesk, Oct 23).
$82,007: this week's open (Coinbase).
$81,962: Friday's high (Coinbase).
BTC, the middle:
$81,081: Tuesday's low (Oct 20, Coinbase).
$81,000–$81,250: the largest visible block of Binance spot bids (Glassnode, Oct 7, so eighteen days old and broken on Saturday).
$80,790: Thursday's low (Coinbase).
$80,694: the Oct 16 low (Coinbase).
$80,625: the 50-day EMA (FXStreet, Oct 19, AI-assisted).
$80,565: the Oct 18 low (Coinbase).
BTC, below:
$80,401: Friday's low (Coinbase).
$80,000: the psychological level, and the largest put cluster for the October 30 expiry (Crypto.com).
$79,973: Sunday's low so far (Coinbase, as of 5 a.m. ET).
$79,664–$79,676: the SuperTrend level (FXStreet, Oct 19) and the Oct 15 low (Coinbase).
$79,107: Saturday's low, 11 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$79,000: October 30 options max pain on Deribit (CryptoTicker, Oct 17). Other sources put it between $76,000 and $78,000, so treat it as a rough map.
$78,661: the 61.8% retracement of the move from the August 2024 low to the October 2025 high (FXStreet, AI-assisted, Oct 16).
$78,000: a large bitcoin put spread flagged by Derive targets it (CoinDesk, Oct 16). The "True Market Mean" is also near $78,000 (analysts cited by FXStreet).
$77,128: the 100-day EMA (FXStreet, Oct 19).
$76,584: the 50-week average (FXStreet, Oct 16).
$75,968: the 200-day EMA (FXStreet, Oct 19).
$75,000: a liquidation cluster flagged by Glassnode (Oct 7).
ETH:
$2,781 and $2,636: the next hurdles above (FXStreet, Oct 16 and 24).
$2,600: FXStreet's upside target (Oct 19).
$2,548 and $2,538: a horizontal barrier and the 20-day EMA (FXStreet, Oct 16–24).
$2,470: the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, per FXStreet's Oct 24 note.
$2,408: this week's open (Coinbase).
$2,370: Tuesday's low (Coinbase).
$2,360 and $2,357: the 100-day EMA (FXStreet, Oct 24) and Thursday's low (Coinbase).
$2,354 and $2,349: the Oct 17 low and Friday's low (Coinbase).
$2,325: the Oct 18 low (Coinbase).
$2,313 and $2,311: the Oct 14 low (Coinbase) and ETH's realized price, the on-chain cost basis (FXStreet, Oct 24).
$2,314: Sunday's low so far (Coinbase).
$2,276: Saturday's low, 11 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$2,205, $1,972 and $1,828: deeper supports if $2,311 breaks (FXStreet, Oct 24).
These are conditional scenarios, not predictions or buy/sell calls. A "break" needs an hourly close, not a wick. A close within about 0.1% of a trigger is a yellow light: check the next hour. Ranges are sized to this week's daily ranges of about $1,500 to $3,500. Weekends have thin trading, so moves can run further, and any weekend news hits Bitcoin first because stocks are closed.
Where BTC starts: near $80,100, below this week's open of $82,007 and the ETF cost basis of $82,313. ETH starts near $2,324.
The drivers:
Middle East headlines. Evacuations and warnings are reported. Nothing confirmed as an attack when I checked.
Oil futures reopen tonight. Brent settled at $116.72 on Friday.
Sunday's 8 p.m. ET weekly close, and Monday's Asia open.
Monday's ETF flows. Friday was an outflow.
The Fed on Wednesday, 2:00 p.m., and big-tech earnings after the close.
A · Relief: the headlines fade, Brent eases, and BTC makes an hourly close above $80,790.
BTC: $80,790 → $81,081 → $82,007 → $82,313 → $82,500.
ETH: $2,357 → $2,408 → $2,470.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC clears $80,790 but falls back under $80,000 on an hourly close within a day.
B · Range: mixed news, BTC between $79,107 and $80,790.
BTC: $79,107 to $80,790, with $79,664–$79,676 and $80,000 inside.
ETH: $2,276 to $2,357.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC has a daily close (8 p.m. ET) under $79,107 or above $81,081.
C · Break lower: the headlines escalate or Brent keeps climbing, and BTC makes an hourly close under $79,107.
BTC: $79,000 → $78,661 → $78,000 → $77,128 → $76,584.
ETH: $2,276 → $2,205 → $1,972.
Gold: usually rises on war news, but it fell with Bitcoin last week. I wouldn't assume which wins.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC slips under $79,107 but the daily close is back above $80,000.
If it's a near-miss. An hourly close between $79,030 and $79,190 is a yellow light, not a break. Check the next hour before treating $79,000 as live.
Combinations: a quiet Sunday night and a calm Monday Asia open is A or B. Brent above $117 plus more ETF outflows is C, and C can move fast on thin liquidity. The Fed on Wednesday adds a second shock, so a risk-off week into it could see the lows tested twice. ETFs have been net sellers for two days, so don't count on them to catch a fall.
Before the Fed decision on Wednesday, in both directions:
If BTC closes an hour above $81,081 before Wednesday, then a hold and steady oil mean $82,007 and then $82,313. A hawkish tone from Chair Warsh would turn $82,000 back into a ceiling.
If BTC closes an hour under $79,000 before Wednesday, then the next zones are $78,661 and $78,000. A bounce would need to reclaim $79,664 first.
DVOL is about 38.8 on Deribit this morning, up from 37.9 on Saturday's close. Still low for a week with a $5,749 range, but rising. I couldn't find a fresh skew reading since Friday's, so I'm not quoting one.
Funding (OKX, 8h): BTC +0.0094%, ETH +0.0013%. BTC's is still positive even after Saturday's drop, which means longs are still paying to hold. That's worth watching: it says not all the leverage was flushed.
Open interest: OKX BTC perp open interest is 29,862 BTC ($2.40B), down from 30,544 BTC on Saturday at 2 a.m. ET. Across all crypto futures, open interest fell 2.2% to $140.1B (The Block).
Next big expiry: Friday, October 30, 4 a.m. ET. Estimates run from about $11.7B (Crypto.com) to $12.2B (CryptoTicker, Oct 17, with max pain at $79,000). The biggest put cluster sits at $80,000, which Bitcoin just crossed, so I'd treat the expiry map as a rough guide. Max pain is a positioning measure, not a forecast.
Whales: no new confirmed move over the weekend. The last one I had was the BlackRock-linked wallets sending 3,215 BTC to Coinbase Prime on Friday (moved, not confirmed sold).
What I'm watching
Sunday's 8 p.m. weekly close against $82,007, and whether $79,107 holds.
Brent when oil futures reopen, and the Monday Asia open.
Any confirmed Middle East development, or any walk-back.
Monday's ETF number, and the first printed Ether number for the week.
The Fed on Wednesday, and Alphabet and Microsoft after the close.
The next scorecard is Monday's edition.
— Pro Swing Trader
This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.
Sources: Coinbase Exchange candles – prices, opens, highs and lows · CoinDesk – Crypto under weekend pressure, bitcoin slides below $80,000 · The Block – Crypto longs lose $404M in four hours · FXStreet – Ethereum ETFs near fourth week of outflows · CoinDesk – Wells Fargo, Cisco, Marvell object to OKXICE · CoinDesk – Strategy, Strive and preferred dividends · CoinDesk – Argentina drops LIBRA probe · TFTC – BTC ETF flows, October 2026 · Trading Economics – Brent · OKX – funding and open interest · DefiLlama – stablecoins · Deribit – DVOL · alternative.me – Fear & Greed · CoinDesk – bitcoin put spread and options (Oct 16) · Crypto.com – weekly recap and expiry