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Pro Swing Trader Daily Brief
Tuesday, October 27, 2026
Good morning. There was no brief on Monday, so this one covers Sunday night, Monday, and the setup for the week.
Short version: not much happened to the price, and a lot happened around it.
Bitcoin spent Sunday and Monday inside a range of about $1,600, from $79,255 to $80,859 (Coinbase). It's near $80,000 this morning.
Meanwhile oil cooled, the biggest corporate buyer of Bitcoin hit pause, ETFs saw their first inflow since Wednesday, and the Fed started its two-day meeting.
The box
Sunday's weekly close (8 p.m. ET) was $80,053. That's down 2.4% on the week, which opened at $82,007.
Monday's close (8 p.m. ET) was $80,009, down 0.06%.
The lows held: $79,255 late Sunday and $79,300 on Monday morning. Saturday's low of $79,107 wasn't tested.
The highs didn't break either. Monday's high was $80,710, and the highest hourly close on Sunday was $80,692.
Ether did the same, between $2,290 and $2,340, and closed Monday at $2,320 (Coinbase).
When price goes nowhere before a big event, it usually means people are waiting. That's an observation, not a signal. Wednesday is the event.
Three things that cooled
Oil. Brent slipped about 2% on Monday, to around $115, after Saudi Arabia's defense minister visited Tehran and officials from Turkey and Pakistan also met Iranian leaders (Trading Economics, CoinDesk). It's still near its multi-month high. President Trump says a decision is near: a deal, or in his words "finish it off." Strikes could resume after the Nov 3 midterms, per reports (Bloomberg, via Yahoo). Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continued over the weekend.
ETFs. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $110.3M on Monday, all from BlackRock's IBIT (TFTC). It's the first inflow since Wednesday. October is still −$202.1M. Friday's outflow of $137.9M is now confirmed in the table too.
Strategy. The company bought no Bitcoin from Oct 19 to 25, ending a five-week buying streak, and it bought back about $205M of its STRC preferred shares instead (8-K, via The Block). It still holds 848,517 BTC at an average cost of $75,446. The filing doesn't say why it paused.
Wall Street's AI relief
Stocks rose on Monday after a rough two-week stretch.
S&P 500: +0.7% to 7,676.77.
Nasdaq Composite: +0.8% to 26,169.38.
Dow: +0.3% to 52,361.58 (CNBC).
The mood lifted when Anthropic, the AI developer, filed publicly to go public. The filing eased some fears about the AI trade, and chip stocks bounced. Separately, Meta said it plans to raise up to $95 billion, starting with $35 billion in stock (Yahoo Finance). Money for AI is still the story either way.
The 10-year Treasury yield is about 4.98%, just under 5% (Trading Economics). Gold is stuck around $4,000, waiting for the Fed (investingLive).
Fed week starts today
The Fed's two-day meeting begins this morning. The decision is Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET, with Chair Warsh's press conference at 2:30. The rate is 3.75% to 4.00%, after a hike in September.
A hold is the base case. CME FedWatch gave about a 90% chance of no change as of Monday, and about 80% for another hike in December (CoinDesk).
The tone is the story. Economist Alan Blinder expects a "hawkish pause," where the Fed holds but hints at more hikes (Yahoo Finance). Jeff Mei of BTSE says what matters for crypto is how strongly Warsh hints at December (CoinDesk).
A hold is already priced, so the decision itself isn't the surprise. The wording is.
Altcoins: still quiet
Altcoins drifted. Ether dipped nearly 3% in the Monday Asian morning to just above $2,300, then recovered. XRP was near $1.28 and Solana near $100 (CoinDesk).
The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season index slipped to 53 out of 100 from 58 on Friday. It's a reading, not a call. The ETH/BTC ratio is about 0.0290, a bit lower than last week's 0.0294.
One seller to know about: Arthur Hayes' fund Maelstrom closed its directional book over the weekend, including 6,400 ETH, 323,000 UNI and 14 million ENA (CoinDesk). One fund's decision, not a market signal.
Also on the radar
That $16M outflow has an answer. Last week blockchain sleuths flagged about $16M leaving India's largest exchange. CoinDCX now says it was an internal process failure tied to a retired wallet, and it will absorb the loss (CoinDesk). It was not a hack, according to the exchange.
Ripple got its final go-ahead to launch a US national trust bank (CoinDesk).
The OCC urged community banks to enter the stablecoin payments market (CoinDesk).
Ethereum patched a Glamsterdam bug that could have sent staking deposits to builders (CoinDesk).
Solana now charges 1 SOL per bug report, to fend off AI-generated spam (CoinDesk).
Market dashboard
BTC | $80,009 (Monday 8 p.m. ET close) · −0.06% · about $80,000 at 7 a.m. ET Tuesday |
ETH | $2,320 (Monday close) · −0.28% · about $2,318 at 7 a.m. ET Tuesday |
Funding rate (OKX, 8h) | BTC +0.0100% · ETH +0.0100% (small, positive) |
Liquidations (24h) | $153M, all crypto (CoinDesk, Monday 7 a.m. ET, down 71%) · no later figure found |
Open interest | OKX BTC perps $2.62B (32,655 BTC) · +9.4% vs Sunday morning |
BTC ETF flow | Monday +$110.3M (TFTC) · October −$202.1M |
ETH ETF flow | — (no confirmed number since last week) |
Stablecoins (USDT + USDC) | $253.0B · 7-day −$2.1B |
Whale line | Strategy paused buying; holds 848,517 BTC (8-K) |
Fear & Greed (alternative.me) | 48 (neutral) · Monday 50 |
DXY · US 10Y · Brent · Gold | — · about 4.98% · about $114.7 · about $4,000 |
Open interest is the total value of futures contracts still open. It rose about 9% since Sunday while the price went sideways. That means more positions are open, and it's worth watching into Wednesday.
Today and this week (ET)
Today, 8:30 a.m.: durable goods orders for September. Estimate +1.5%, prior 0.0% (CoinDesk).
Today, 10:00 a.m.: new home sales (estimate 0.65M) and consumer confidence. I couldn't find a consensus for confidence.
Today: PayPal, SoFi and Galaxy report before the open. Robinhood reports after the close.
Wednesday, 2:00 p.m.: the Fed decision. Press conference at 2:30. Alphabet and Microsoft report after the close.
Thursday, 8:30 a.m.: third-quarter GDP (estimate 3.2%, prior 2.2%), September PCE inflation (prior 3.4% year over year, core 3.0%) and jobless claims (estimate 196,000). The ECB decides at 9:15. Coinbase and Strategy report after the close.
Friday, 8:30 a.m.: the employment cost index. The Deribit options expiry is at 4 a.m. ET, and the Bank of Japan decision is also this week (the time zone in my source isn't clear).
Saturday, Oct 31, 8 p.m.: October's close. The month opened at $83,556.
Sunday, Nov 1: US clocks go back one hour.
Today's takeaway
Bitcoin is waiting. The box is $79,255 to $80,859, and it has held for two days. A move out of it needs a reason, and the Fed is the biggest one on the calendar.
The line below is $79,107, Saturday's low. The line above is $81,081, and then last week's open of $82,007.
Sunday's plan result: the "range" branch was the one that played out. The box held on closes, and the "break lower" trigger wasn't close.
Today in Premium:
The plan to Wednesday's Fed decision, and the day after. What happens in a hawkish hold, and what happens if Warsh leaves December open?
27 BTC key levels, each with its source, including the two-day box.
ETH after $2,290: which cited levels sit above and below.
Options and funding check: the $77,000 put and $84,000 call everyone is trading this week, and the $12B Friday expiry.
🔒 Scenario C: BTC hourly close below $7█,███ with a hawkish Fed hint → next zone $7█,███–$7█,███
Premium readers get all of this below 👇
Sunday's plan had three branches. A was "relief" (an hourly close above $80,790). B was "range" (between $79,107 and $80,790, wrong on a daily close under $79,107 or above $81,081). C was "break lower" (an hourly close under $79,107, with the Middle East headlines escalating).
B · range: right. Both daily closes were inside it: $80,053 on Sunday and $80,009 on Monday. The "wrong if" lines never fired. The low was $79,255, $148 above the bottom edge. The high was $80,859 on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, $69 over the top edge, but no hourly close was above $80,790.
A · relief: not triggered. The best hourly close after the plan was $80,692, in the Sunday noon hour.
C · break lower: not triggered. The lowest hourly close was $79,459 (the Sunday 10 p.m. hour), $352 above the trigger. The macro condition also faded: Brent fell on Monday as diplomacy picked up.
ETH: inside the range. The plan's B range was $2,276 to $2,357. ETH traded $2,290 to $2,340 (Coinbase).
The drivers: the Middle East headlines cooled instead of escalating. Monday's ETF number was an inflow of $110.3M, after Friday's outflow (now confirmed at −$137.9M in the TFTC table). The weekly close, $80,053, was under $82,007 as I said it would be.
The pre-Fed lines: neither fired. BTC didn't close an hour above $81,081 or under $79,000.
What we got wrong: there was no Monday edition, so nothing was published to update the plan on Monday morning. I also said funding being positive meant "not all leverage was flushed." Open interest then grew 9%, so leverage didn't just stay, it came back.
What we learned: the range held through two days, and ahead of a scheduled event like the Fed it's reasonable to expect compression. That's a pattern, not a rule, and a compressed range can still break either way once the event is out.
27 BTC levels, each with its source.
BTC, above:
$86,996: the Oct 5 high (Coinbase daily candle).
$85,000: a horizontal barrier in FXStreet's technical note (AI-assisted, Oct 16), and the focus of October 30 call trading (CoinDesk).
$84,856: the Oct 21 high (Coinbase).
$84,062–$84,262: the Oct 12–14 highs (Coinbase).
$83,556: October's open (Coinbase).
$82,500: support flagged by CoinDesk, lost on Oct 22 and still the level to reclaim (CoinDesk, Oct 26).
$82,313: the average cost basis of the spot ETFs (Glassnode, via CoinDesk, Oct 23).
$82,007: last week's open (Coinbase).
$81,081: the Oct 20 low (Coinbase).
BTC, the middle (the box and its edges):
$80,859: Sunday's high, 1 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$80,790: the Oct 22 low (Coinbase).
$80,710: Monday's high (Coinbase).
$80,694: the Oct 16 low (Coinbase).
$80,565: the Oct 18 low (Coinbase).
$80,401: the Oct 23 low (Coinbase).
$80,053: this week's open (Coinbase).
BTC, below:
$80,000: the psychological level, and the largest put cluster for the October 30 expiry (Crypto.com). investingLive's headline calls it a major support that has broken.
$79,664–$79,676: the SuperTrend level (FXStreet, Oct 19) and the Oct 15 low (Coinbase).
$79,366: Tuesday's low so far (Coinbase, as of 7 a.m. ET).
$79,255: the two-day low, Sunday's 11 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$79,107: the Oct 24 low, the weekend's floor (Coinbase).
$79,000: October 30 options max pain on Deribit (CryptoTicker, Oct 17). Other sources put it between $76,000 and $78,000, so treat it as a rough map.
$78,661: the 61.8% retracement of the move from the August 2024 low to the October 2025 high (FXStreet, AI-assisted, Oct 16).
$78,000: a large bitcoin put spread flagged by Derive targets it (CoinDesk, Oct 16).
$77,128: the 100-day EMA (FXStreet, Oct 19).
$75,968: the 200-day EMA (FXStreet, Oct 19).
$75,000: a liquidation cluster flagged by Glassnode (Oct 7).
ETH:
$2,781 and $2,636: the next hurdles above (FXStreet, Oct 24).
$2,600: FXStreet's upside target (Oct 19).
$2,548 and $2,538: a horizontal barrier and the 20-day EMA (FXStreet, Oct 16–24).
$2,470: the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, per FXStreet's Oct 24 note.
$2,408: the Oct 19 weekly open (Coinbase).
$2,357: the Oct 22 low (Coinbase).
$2,340: Monday's high (Coinbase).
$2,327: this week's open (Coinbase).
$2,325: the Oct 18 low (Coinbase).
$2,313 and $2,311: the Oct 14 low (Coinbase) and ETH's realized price, the on-chain cost basis (FXStreet, Oct 24).
$2,290: Monday's low (Coinbase).
$2,276: the Oct 24 low (Coinbase).
$2,205, $1,972 and $1,828: deeper supports if $2,311 breaks (FXStreet, Oct 24).
These are conditional scenarios, not predictions or buy/sell calls. A "break" needs an hourly close, not a wick. A close within about 0.1% of a trigger is a yellow light: check the next hour. Ranges here are sized to last week's daily ranges of about $1,400 to $3,500, so I'm not treating the current $1,600 box as normal.
Where BTC starts: near $80,000, right on the weekly open of $80,053. ETH starts near $2,318.
The drivers:
The Fed on Wednesday, 2:00 p.m. A hold is priced. The question is whether Warsh hints at a December hike.
Big tech earnings, Alphabet and Microsoft after Wednesday's close, and the AI trade.
Iran: deal or strikes. Brent near $114.7. Strikes could come after the Nov 3 midterms.
Thursday's GDP and PCE. PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
Leverage. OKX BTC open interest is up 9% since Sunday.
A · Relief: a calm Fed, Brent steady or lower, and BTC makes an hourly close above $80,859.
BTC: $80,859 → $81,081 → $82,007 → $82,313 → $82,500.
ETH: $2,340 → $2,408 → $2,470.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC clears $80,859 but falls back under $80,000 on an hourly close within a day.
B · Range: no surprises, BTC stays in the box between $79,255 and $80,710.
BTC: $79,255 to $80,710, with $80,000 and $80,053 inside.
ETH: $2,290 to $2,340.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC has a daily close (8 p.m. ET) under $79,107 or above $81,081.
C · Break lower: a hawkish hint on December, an AI-stock scare, or Brent jumping, and BTC makes an hourly close under $79,255.
BTC: $79,107 → $79,000 → $78,661 → $78,000 → $77,128.
ETH: $2,276 → $2,205 → $1,972.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC slips under $79,255 but the daily close is back above $80,000.
If it's a near-miss. An hourly close between $79,175 and $79,335 is a yellow light, not a break. Check the next hour before treating $79,107 as live.
After the Fed (Wednesday afternoon). If Warsh signals a December hike, I'd treat C as more likely, because that's the "hawkish pause" case. If he leaves December open, A or B are more likely. If the market already priced the hawkish version, a hold can still lift price. Either way, the first 15 to 30 minutes after 2:00 p.m. aren't a trend. I'd wait for the 4 p.m. stock close and the 8 p.m. BTC close.
Combinations: Fed and earnings on the same day is a lot of risk in one afternoon. A hawkish Warsh plus weak big-tech results is the cleanest C. A balanced Warsh plus strong results is A. Thursday's PCE and GDP can undo whatever Wednesday did, so I wouldn't treat Wednesday night as the end of it.
Before the Fed decision, in both directions:
If BTC closes an hour above $81,081 before Wednesday 2:00 p.m., then the next zones are $82,007 and $82,313. A hawkish tone from Warsh would turn $82,000 back into a ceiling.
If BTC closes an hour under $79,000 before then, the next zones are $78,661 and $78,000. A bounce would need to reclaim $79,664 first.
DVOL is about 37.8 on Deribit this morning, down from 38.6 on Monday's close. That's low for a week with a Fed decision, GDP, PCE and big tech all in it. CoinDesk says the one-month put skew (how much more puts cost than calls) eased to about 12.5% from 14.5%.
The most-traded option on Monday was the Oct 28 $77,000 put, followed by the Oct 28 $84,000 call. Those expire Wednesday, the day of the Fed. The data doesn't say who was buying or selling.
Funding (OKX, 8h): BTC +0.0100%, ETH +0.0100%. That's OKX's default level, so it's close to neutral. Crude oil perpetuals had negative funding on Monday, the only negative reading among the top 20 markets (CoinDesk).
Open interest: OKX BTC perp open interest is 32,655 BTC ($2.62B), up from 29,862 BTC on Sunday morning. Across all crypto futures, open interest was $139.9B, up 0.85% on Monday (CoinDesk). Liquidations fell 71% to $153M on Monday morning.
Next big expiry: Friday, October 30, 4 a.m. ET. Estimates run from about $11.7B (Crypto.com) to $12.2B (CryptoTicker, Oct 17, with max pain at $79,000). The biggest put cluster sits at $80,000, where Bitcoin is trading right now. Max pain is a positioning measure, not a forecast.
Whales: two items. Strategy paused buying and repurchased $205M of preferred shares (8-K). And Ark Invest sold $15.9M of its own Bitcoin ETF while buying $5.2M of Circle shares (The Block). Those are a company decision and a fund's sale, not wallet moves.
What I'm watching
Whether $79,255 and $80,859 both hold, and which one breaks first.
This morning's durable goods, new home sales and consumer confidence.
The Fed on Wednesday, 2:00 p.m., and Warsh's wording on December.
Alphabet and Microsoft after the close on Wednesday.
Brent and any Iran headline, and the Nov 3 midterms.
Tomorrow's ETF number, and Thursday's GDP and PCE.
The next scorecard is tomorrow's edition.
— Pro Swing Trader
This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.
Sources: Coinbase Exchange candles – prices, opens, highs and lows · CoinDesk – Bitcoin holds near $80,000 as oil retreats and the Fed decision looms · CoinDesk – Bitcoin slips under $80,000 as traders de-risk ahead of Fed meeting · CoinDesk – Crypto Week Ahead · The Block – Strategy pauses bitcoin buys, repurchases $205M of STRC · The Block – Ark Invest sells $15.9M of its Bitcoin ETF · TFTC – BTC ETF flows, October 2026 · Yahoo Finance – Stock market today, Oct 26 · Yahoo Finance – Trump says decision time nears on Iran · Trading Economics – Brent · Trading Economics – US 10-year yield · investingLive – gold consolidation · CoinDesk – CoinDCX absorbs $16M loss · CoinDesk – Ripple trust bank · CoinDesk – OCC and stablecoin payments · CoinDesk – Glamsterdam bug fix · CoinDesk – Solana bug reports cost 1 SOL · OKX – funding and open interest · DefiLlama – stablecoins · Deribit – DVOL · alternative.me – Fear & Greed · CryptoTicker – October 30 options expiry · FXStreet – technical levels (Oct 16 to 24) · CoinDesk – bitcoin put spread and options (Oct 16)