Bitcoin is back near $73,000 as Nvidia's CEO crisis deepens and MSCI drops Strategy from its index

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Pro Swing Trader Daily Brief
Thursday, November 12, 2026

Good morning. Bitcoin spent Wednesday inside a narrow range, then slipped back toward Tuesday's low overnight. This morning it touched that low again, to within a dollar, before bouncing.

Three stories did it. Nvidia, the stock market's biggest name, is in a leadership crisis. The spot Bitcoin ETFs added another outflow day, their fifth in a row. And MSCI confirmed that Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, is being dropped from its indexes.

Today's calendar is light, with jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET as the one data point. I'm writing at about 7:30 a.m. ET.

After the close on Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Nvidia's board is preparing to oust CEO Jensen Huang. The New York Times had reported earlier that day on a relationship between Huang and a company executive, which CNBC said it couldn't independently establish. The board met Wednesday evening. As of about 5 a.m. ET, no decision had been announced.

Nvidia closed Wednesday at $173.73, fell more than 8% after hours and was down 8.1% premarket at 7:05 a.m. (CNBC, investingLive). Bernstein cut its price target from $400 to $200, and analysts told CNBC the stock could fall another 20% if Huang goes. Earnings are Tuesday, Nov 17, at 5 p.m. ET.

Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.7% and S&P futures 0.4%. Chip names are split: AMD and Broadcom are up premarket, and Intel, Marvell, Arm and Qualcomm are down.

Crypto trades on the same screens. CoinDesk linked the early dip in Bitcoin to the Nvidia selling. Nvidia perpetual futures on Hyperliquid fell about 10% overnight, by The Block's count, while CoinDesk's headline says 7%.

MSCI published its final list Wednesday evening, and Strategy is deleted from the MSCI USA Index. Metaplanet comes out of MSCI Japan Small Cap. Both changes take effect after the close on Nov 30. MSCI's stated basis is a new "non-operating company" screen adopted on Oct 15 (The Block, CoinDesk). SharpLink is not on the deletion list.

By Strategy's own estimate, index funds hold about 13 million of its shares, 3.1% of the company, worth about $1.6B at Wednesday's prices. Older estimates, written before the final rules, ran as high as $2.8B of selling (JPMorgan, Nov 2025). Strategy isn't forced to sell any Bitcoin. Its shares fell about 2.6% after hours, and I couldn't find a new statement from the company.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs took another big outflow on Wednesday, and IBIT alone lost $269.7M, which was about 90% of it (TFTC, Farside via Cointelegraph). That's IBIT's ninth straight session of outflows (CoinDesk), and the five-day total for all funds is about $1.44B.

November's total is now about $1.9B across eight trading days, with one inflow day. Bitfinex told Cointelegraph that slowing outflows "could be an early step toward a market floor." They haven't slowed yet.

I couldn't find Ether ETF flows for Tuesday or Wednesday.

Bitcoin sits about 2.3% under this week's open. Ether is about 4.6% under its own.

Wednesday's range was tight, and the price never closed above this week's open. It went back and forth under that line all day, and the rally in AI stocks didn't lift it. The overnight slide took it right back to where Tuesday ended.

Open interest is the total value of futures contracts still open. It's flat, so traders aren't adding and aren't leaving.

What the dashboard says. The ETF number is the one that's moving. Funding is still positive for a third day, so longs are still paying despite the slide. Stablecoin supply keeps shrinking, which is worth a look below.

The dollar is the loudest chart. The dollar index hit a 19-month high overnight (FXStreet), which is a headwind for everything priced in dollars. Gold fell under $4,000 as traders weigh a half-point Fed hike (FXStreet).

Fed funds futures put a December hike at about 90% (CME FedWatch, CoinDesk, TradingEconomics). The 2-year yield is up 3 basis points and the 30-year is steady at about 5.3%.

Oil is lower. WTI is near $85.7 and Brent near $92 (Trading Economics, CFD quotes). Iran says it will not give up its enriched material and that the US must lift sanctions and end the blockade before Hormuz reopens.

Asia was weaker: the Nikkei fell 0.7%, the Kospi 0.6% and the Hang Seng about 1.4% in the last hour. Europe is up about 0.3%, with Germany's DAX at record highs (investingLive). USD/JPY is near 160, and Japan has issued verbal warnings.

On stablecoins, the supply of the major ones fell $14.2B over 30 days, the biggest contraction since 2022 (Glassnode, via The Block). Glassnode says a return to growth would be the first sign that new money is coming in.

Everything is down about the same amount. ETH is holding just above the $2,000 support analysts have been naming. SOL is near $82.6, XRP near $1.04, HYPE near $70.7 and BNB near $663 (CoinDesk, Decrypt, Cointelegraph tickers, undated). The ETH/BTC ratio is about 0.0278, unchanged from Wednesday. I didn't pull CoinMarketCap's total market cap and dominance this morning.

Ripple's bank-lending system on the XRP Ledger moved closer to launch, with support among validators rising to 22 of 35 (CoinDesk).

The market is trading Nvidia, the dollar and the ETF flows, and Bitcoin is on the wrong side of all three. The price has now tested Tuesday's low twice. A second test that holds can be a floor, and one that breaks is how a range ends.

Yesterday's result: the "range" case from Wednesday's plan was the right read. The "break" case printed one clean hour and was undone an hour later.

Today in Premium:

🔒 Scenario C: BTC hourly close below $7█,███ → next zones $7█,███ and $7█,███

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Wednesday's plan was written at about 6:50 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $73,950. A was "higher" (an hourly close above $74,756). B was "range" ($73,636 to $74,756). C was "break" (an hourly close under $73,636). The daily close was at 7 p.m. ET, Thursday 00:00 UTC. I ranked B first, then A, then C.

B · range: the right read, with one false exit. The price stayed inside the band for almost the whole session, and the daily close ($73,928) finished inside it. The one exception was the 9 a.m. hour, which closed at $73,484, clear of the yellow band ($73,562 to $73,710). By the new exit rule from Tuesday's scorecard (a clean hourly close outside the band), that was a signal that B was wrong. The very next hour closed back inside at $73,917, and the range resumed. ETH stayed in its range as well ($2,033 to $2,102 against the plan's $2,003 to $2,125).

C · break: triggered once, failed within an hour, reached one of four zones. The 9 a.m. hour close was the trigger. The first zone, $73,477 (Sunday's low), was reached with a low of $73,294. The second, $73,000, was missed by $294. C's "wrong if" line (a daily close back above $74,756) did not fire. An overnight close at $73,525 also printed before I wrote the plan, and doesn't count.

A · higher: not triggered. The highest hourly close was $74,604, in the 3 p.m. hour, under the yellow band ($74,681 to $74,831). The 4 p.m. hour spiked to $74,737, $19 short of the trigger, and closed $430 lower. This week's open held as a ceiling again.

Order book and clusters. The 50.4 BTC bid at 73,655 and the 52.7 BTC ask at 74,246 were both traded through. The 71 BTC ask at 75,000 was never reached, and it's now 21.7 BTC, so about 49 BTC of it was pulled or cut. The first long cluster ($73,348) was hit by the low. The two biggest short clusters ($74,792 and $74,907) were not: the high stopped $55 short of the first.

What we got right: ranking B first, and the ceiling call: this week's open held again.

What we got wrong: ranking A above C. Neither case was close to a full trigger, but C printed a clean close and A never did. And the new exit rule created a false alarm: one clean close outside the band, undone an hour later.

What we learned: a range exit needs a hold test, not just a first close. From today a clean close outside the band counts only if the next hourly close doesn't bring the price back inside.

31 BTC levels, each with its source.

BTC, above:

BTC, the middle:

BTC, below:

There is no cited support between $72,500 and $70,000. The long-liquidation clusters below are the only markers in that gap.

ETH:

These are standing buy and sell orders on Coinbase (BTC-USD) and Kraken (BTC/USD), taken at about 7:15 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $73,000. They are not trades, and they can be pulled in a blink.

Balance within 1% of the price. Coinbase has 244.1 BTC of bids and 174.6 BTC of asks, about 40% more buy orders. Kraken has 252.7 BTC of bids and 287.6 BTC of asks, about 14% more sell orders. The two venues disagree, so I'd call it balanced.

Walls below (bids):

Walls above (asks):

What happened to yesterday's walls. The 50.4 BTC bid at 73,655 and the 52.7 BTC ask at 74,246 were both traded through, so neither held. The 71.0 BTC ask at 75,000 never traded, and it has shrunk to 21.7 BTC, so about 49 BTC was pulled or cut. On Kraken, a 27 BTC bid and a 27 BTC ask have both moved down by about $940 since yesterday (from 73,787.00 and 74,109.40 to 72,834.60 and 73,178.90), roughly the same amount the price fell. The same pair of equal-sized orders is following the price down again, which looks like one market maker refreshing its quotes (inference).

Whale or market maker? The first five levels each side are almost empty on Coinbase. The Kraken pair is the only sign of a market maker. I can't see who placed the big orders.

Walls to watch (not predictions): the 49.5 BTC bid at 72,673 and the 54.3 BTC ask at 73,340.

Caveats: walls can be spoofed, icebergs hide size, ETF and over-the-counter buying never shows in the book, and two venues are a small slice of the market. Most walls here are worth $1M to $4M.

This is CoinGlass's liquidation map for Binance BTC/USDT (Model 1, 24-hour window), read at about 7:20 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $73,000. The bars are CoinGlass's model estimates of where leveraged positions would be force-closed. They are not actual positions. Clusters that the price has already traded through disappear from the map.

Longs and shorts are about even nearby. Within 2% of the price there are about $230M of longs below and about $215M of shorts above. Further out, the shorts are much bigger: about $512M of shorts within 4% above against about $325M of longs within 4% below.

Shorts above (forced buys):

Longs below (forced sells):

Which side is the bigger pool? Nearby it's about even, with the longs slightly ahead. Further out, the shorts. A bigger pool can pull price toward it, but a cluster is fuel, not a floor.

How it lines up with the other blocks:

What changed since yesterday: Wednesday's biggest short clusters ($74,792 and $74,907) were never reached, and the map has since rebuilt the biggest shorts higher, at $75,343. The long clusters at $73,348 and above were cleared by Wednesday's low and this morning's drop.

Caveats: Binance BTC/USDT only, one model, a 24-hour window, a single snapshot. A move in either direction will change this map within minutes.

These are conditional scenarios, not predictions or buy/sell calls. A "break" needs an hourly close, not a wick. A close within about 0.1% of a trigger is a yellow light: check the next hour. I'm writing this at about 7:35 a.m. ET Thursday. The daily close is tonight at 7 p.m. ET, Friday 00:00 UTC.

Where BTC starts: about $73,000, just above Tuesday's low, which it has now tested twice. ETH starts near $2,027.

The drivers, in order of when they land:

A · Relief: BTC makes an hourly close above $73,636.

B · Range: BTC stays between $72,643 and $73,636.

C · Break: BTC makes an hourly close under $72,643.

What could drive each one. A: a claims number above consensus (a weaker labor market eases hike bets), a Nvidia board decision that settles the story, or ETF flows that finally slow. C: a claims number below consensus that keeps hike bets alive, more Nvidia selling, a tenth day of IBIT outflows, a weak long-bond auction or a stronger dollar. I'm ranking C first, then B, then A. That follows the market's direction this week and isn't a call: the low held on this morning's retest, and repeated tests tend to weaken a level.

Before the 8:30 claims number, in both directions:

After 7 p.m.: the plan ends at the close. If a break happens late, the next two zones are the ones above for A or C, and I'll write a Friday plan around PPI and the Fed speakers.

What I'd skip: the first 15 minutes after 8:30 and after the 9:30 open, and the hour of the 30-year auction. Nvidia headlines can land at any time, so I'd treat any single candle on that news as low-confidence.

Five items, each dated, plus what I couldn't find.

1. ETF flows by fund (TFTC, last checked 5:00 a.m. ET Thursday). Wednesday Nov 11: −$299.9M, with IBIT −$269.7M, GBTC −$39.1M and MSBT +$9.0M. Tuesday was −$95.0M and Monday −$201.1M. That's five outflow days in a row since Nov 5, about $1.44B in all (Friday's was −$411.9M). IBIT has now seen outflows for nine straight sessions, with about $2B out over the run (CoinDesk, Cointelegraph citing Farside). November's total is about $1.9B, of which IBIT is about $1.8B. FBTC (+$56.3M), MSBT (+$54.4M) and BITB (+$16.6M) are the funds with net inflows this month. The on-chain side of these flows is redemption plumbing, not BlackRock selling. I found no BlackRock or Coinbase Prime transfers.

2. How much the average ETF buyer is up or down. Glassnode's US spot ETF cost basis was $81.5K on Oct 28. At today's price that's about 10% under water, worse than a day ago. The cost basis moves every day, so treat it as a snapshot.

3. Strategy and MSCI. MSCI deletes Strategy from its USA index after the close on Nov 30, and Metaplanet from MSCI Japan Small Cap. Strategy's own filing says index funds hold about 13M of its shares (3.1% of basic shares), worth about $1.6B at Wednesday's prices. JPMorgan's older estimate was $2.8B, based on the initial proposal. Strategy isn't forced to sell Bitcoin. Its holdings are unchanged since the Nov 9 8-K: 850,364 BTC at an average of about $75,456, which is about 3% under water at today's price. Its mNAV is about 1.08, which is the premium of its market value over its Bitcoin (CoinDesk). Other index providers could follow MSCI, and one analyst's worst case is $11B of selling. That's a scenario, not a forecast.

4. Other treasuries and miners. Bitmine's $6.3B fiscal-year loss and 6.07M ETH were in Wednesday's edition. Canaan said it may sell more Bitcoin to fund buybacks (CoinDesk). I found no new MARA, Metaplanet, Twenty One or Strive purchases.

5. Stablecoins. Major stablecoin supply fell $14.2B in 30 days, the largest drop since 2022, and total supply is just below $280B, the lowest since September 2025 (Glassnode and DefiLlama, via The Block). USDT is about 62.8% of it. A shrinking supply means less new money available to buy.

Not found today: Arkham and Lookonchain whale transfers, Hyperliquid whales, CryptoQuant holdings, new Glassnode on-chain data, Ether ETF flows, Strategy's response to the MSCI decision, and Binance withdrawal and mining-pool status. Q3 13F filings are due Monday Nov 16.

DVOL: Deribit's volatility index is at 38.7 this morning, down from 38.9 on Wednesday. It has drifted lower all week while the price fell, so options traders aren't paying up for protection. That's a calm reading for a market testing an 11-week low.

Funding (OKX, 8h): BTC +0.0092%, about flat on yesterday's +0.0094%, and ETH +0.0033%. Both are still positive, so longs are still paying. After a two-day slide, positive funding means leverage on the long side has not been flushed (CoinDesk's data show total futures open interest down about 3%).

Open interest on OKX is about unchanged, and across the market it fell about 3%, with liquidations down about 60% from a day earlier. That means forced selling has cooled.

Options: I found no options-flow reporting this week. The next monthly expiry is Nov 27. 21Shares' Matt Mena says a break under $73,000 could send Bitcoin toward $69,000, and CoinDesk quotes BRN saying a daily UTC close under $73,000 could trigger momentum-driven selling toward $70,000. Neither has happened: the last daily close was $73,928.

— Pro Swing Trader

This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.

Sources: Coinbase Exchange candles – prices, opens, highs and lows · Coinbase order book · Kraken order book · CoinGlass – Liquidation Heatmap · CoinDesk – Bitcoin dips with Nvidia as ETF outflows reach day five · CoinDesk – MSCI is dropping Strategy · The Block – Strategy, Metaplanet lose MSCI membership · The Block – stablecoin supply drops $14.2B · Cointelegraph – IBIT outflows, nine-day streak · Cointelegraph – MSCI confirms Strategy's removal · Cointelegraph – Binance CSO and the hack tactic · CNBC – Nvidia and Huang · CNBC – WSJ report on Nvidia's board · CNBC – stock market today · investingLive – Nvidia stock plunges 8.6% · investingLive – Nasdaq futures drop on Nvidia report · FXStreet – economic calendar · Investing.com – economic calendar · Trading Economics – crude oil, Brent, DXY, gold · TFTC – BTC ETF flows, November 2026 · Glassnode – Week 44 · The Block – Bitcoin slides below $74,000 · FXStreet – Top 3 price predictions (Oct 30) · FXStreet – Bitcoin tests $80K support (Oct 26) · Decrypt – Bitcoin hits 11-week low · OKX – funding and open interest · DefiLlama – stablecoins · alternative.me – Fear & Greed · Deribit – DVOL