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Pro Swing Trader Daily Brief
Thursday, November 5, 2026

Good morning. Bitcoin rallied hard on Wednesday and has held the gains overnight. Stocks surged, oil and the dollar fell, and spot Bitcoin ETFs took in money after three straight days of outflows. Today brings the Bank of England, jobless claims and a run of Fed speakers, and Friday is the jobs report. The numbers are in the dashboard below.

I'm writing at about 6:00 a.m. ET.

Updates to Wednesday's edition

  • ETFs. I asked whether a fourth day of outflows would follow. It didn't: Wednesday was an inflow, covered below. TFTC is still my only per-fund source.

  • ADP. I gave the consensus as 69K. Trading Economics agrees, but investingLive says 65K. The result beat either one.

  • The Senate. The count is still unsettled, and now there are three different figures. See the next section.

  • Earnings. The AMD, Super Micro, Qualcomm and Arm figures I couldn't find on Wednesday are below. I still have no Arista figures.

  • Moscow Exchange. I wrote BTC and USDT in December. CoinDesk now says BTC, ETH and USDT from Dec 1.

  • Wednesday's plan is graded in Premium, below the paywall.

Wednesday: a macro rally

  • Stocks. Trading Economics and CoinDesk agree the S&P 500 rose about 1.6%. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.44%, and the Dow rose about 3%, or 1,578 points on one of Trading Economics' two readings. The two sources disagree on index levels, so I'm giving moves only.

  • Leaders and laggards. Microsoft +6.68%, Amazon +6.12%, Apple +5.31% and Alphabet +3.18%. Micron −7.00%, Caterpillar −5.23%, Exxon −4.51%, Tesla −3.34% and Nvidia −3.17% (Trading Economics).

  • Oil. Crude fell sharply after Senator Chuck Schumer talked about ending the Iran war (investingLive). CoinDesk has Brent down more than 8% on the day. Trading Economics shows it near $96.06 this morning.

  • Gold and the dollar. Gold rose about 3%, its biggest daily gain since August (investingLive). The dollar index hit a four-week low (FXStreet), and the 10-year yield sank to near a two-month low (Trading Economics).

  • Data. ADP private payrolls rose 86K. ISM services came in at 54.5, below the 54.8 expected and down from 54.9, the lowest in three months. Its prices index eased to 73.0 from 74.0, and employment rose to 51.4 from 50.1 (Trading Economics). I couldn't find the Treasury refunding announcement.

  • The Fed. FXStreet cited CME FedWatch at about 81% for a rate increase in December at 11:03 a.m. ET. So the rally was not about rate-cut hopes.

Midterms: control is settled, the count isn't

  • Control. Democrats won both chambers (FXStreet, CoinDesk). CoinDesk says they take control on Jan 3.

  • The Senate count. FXStreet quoting AP at 2:00 a.m. Wednesday said 54. CoinDesk's blog the night before said 49. investingLive at about 3:30 p.m. Wednesday said it "appears" Alaska and Mississippi go blue, giving Democrats 56. I can't reconcile the three, so the exact number is still unverified. I found no final House count.

  • Crypto policy. TD Cowen says the CLARITY Act is unlikely to advance over the next two years. The Senate vote in September was 49–50, short of 60 (The Block, Decrypt).

  • AI trade. Chip and AI stocks sold off on fears of Democratic data-center regulation (Trading Economics, investingLive).

Earnings

  • Qualcomm (Wednesday). Revenue of about $10.4 billion against about $10.1 billion expected, and adjusted earnings of $2.17 against $2.16. Its December-quarter revenue guide was $10.4 billion to $11.2 billion against about $10.5 billion expected. Capital spending is about $2.5 billion against about $1.9 billion expected. The shares fell about 2% after hours (investingLive, 9:12 p.m. ET), but Trading Economics later said over 7%. I can't tell you which is right.

  • Arm (Wednesday). Earnings of 52 cents and revenue of about $1.44 billion. Its outlook only edged past forecasts, and the shares fell about 5% after hours (investingLive).

  • AMD (Tuesday). Revenue of about $13.4 billion and adjusted earnings of about $2.10, both ahead of forecasts. Its fourth-quarter revenue guide of about $17 billion beat the roughly $16.3 billion expected (investingLive).

  • Super Micro (Tuesday). Revenue near $19.9 billion against forecasts near $16 billion, with a guide of $19.5 billion to $21.5 billion for the next quarter.

  • Others. AppLovin rose about 20% after hours on a beat. Snap beat on profit but missed on users. Today brings ConocoPhillips, Kimberly-Clark and Airbnb.

This morning

  • Asia. South Korea's Kospi fell 4.8%, with a trading halt triggered. Japan's Nikkei fell about 1.5%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose about 3% (investingLive, Trading Economics).

  • Europe. The DAX and FTSE are each up about 0.7% (a Trading Economics snapshot).

  • US futures. Readings conflict: investingLive had the S&P and Nasdaq 100 steady in the Asian morning, while Trading Economics shows Nasdaq 100 futures down about 0.8% and Dow futures up about 0.5%.

  • Iran. President Trump said there are no immediate plans for military action, and Qatar is mediating. An Iranian official said the sides are still far apart. The Revolutionary Guards claimed tanker fires and a mine in Hormuz, which is unverified (investingLive).

Crypto news

  • Why it rose. CoinDesk (12:13 a.m. ET) credits the Democratic sweep, hopes of an end to the Iran conflict, the oil drop and a weaker dollar. The Block had Bitcoin up 3.5% on the day at 3:09 p.m. I found no source that ties the sharp move at 9 and 10 a.m. to a single trigger. The price data is below.

  • Liquidations. Wednesday's morning story said $469 million over 24 hours. I found no newer total and no split between longs and shorts.

  • Altcoins. Zcash jumped 12% (CoinDesk). BNB added 4.2% to about $715, SOL is near $96 and XRP near $1.31.

  • Binance. It expanded its proof of reserves to 44 tokens from 10, and says the new zero-knowledge proof will take 50 to 60 hours (The Block, 11:58 a.m. ET Wednesday). I found no result from the second snapshot.

  • Block Inc. The $764 million DOJ settlement is an agreement in principle to resolve an anti-money-laundering probe, with a criminal charge deferred for three years. Its third-quarter bitcoin gross profit fell 50% to $52 million (CoinDesk).

  • Crédit Mutuel Arkéa. The bank confirmed the attack and says it had no impact on its assets. ZachXBT's loss estimate stays above $133 million, and he says he is highly confident the attacker is not Lazarus (The Block).

  • Other. Circle's third-quarter revenue was $865 million, and it is cutting 5% of staff (The Block). Arkansas sued the prediction market Kalshi.

ETFs: the streak ends

US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in money on Wednesday for the first time in four trading days. IBIT still lost money, but Fidelity's FBTC more than made up for it. The total, the month so far and the fund-by-fund split are in the dashboard and in Premium. TFTC says the data was last checked at 5:00 a.m. ET. IBIT is included and the line sums, but TFTC could revise it.

I couldn't find Ether ETF flows for any day this week.

Where Bitcoin stands

Bitcoin broke out of Tuesday's range at 9 a.m. on Wednesday and has traded in a tight band since. It's about 2.6% above this week's open and 3.6% above November's open. Ether is up about 6% on the week.

Market dashboard

BTC

$80,428 (Wednesday 7 p.m. ET close) · +4.00% · about $80,243 at 5:45 a.m. ET

BTC Wednesday range

low $77,151 (midnight hour) · high $81,131 (10 a.m. hour)

ETH

$2,422 (Wednesday close) · +6.63% · about $2,416 at 5:45 a.m. ET

Funding rate (OKX, 8h)

BTC +0.0100% · ETH +0.0071%

Open interest

OKX BTC perps $2.70B (33,601 BTC)

BTC ETF flow

Wednesday +$74.6M (TFTC) · November −$439.6M · ended a three-day outflow streak

Stablecoins (USDT + USDC)

$248.8B · 7-day −$3.4B

Whale line

Trump Media moved 4,259 BTC to Crypto.com (Arkham, via CoinDesk); moved is not sold

Fear & Greed (alternative.me)

50 (neutral) · Wednesday 34

US 10Y · WTI · Gold

about 4.88% · about $88.6 · about $4,127

Open interest is the total value of futures contracts still open. It's about 5% below Wednesday morning even though the price rose, which fits traders closing or being forced out of shorts. The data doesn't say which side.

Fear & Greed jumped from fear to neutral in a day.

Today and tomorrow (ET)

  • Thursday, 7:00 a.m.: the Bank of England, a quarter-point hike to 4.00% expected, its first of this cycle, with a 7–2 vote expected (investingLive, FXStreet). 7:40: Schlegel. 8:30: jobless claims, expected 196K against 194K before. 8:50: Hammack. 9:10: Barkin (both not reconfirmed). 11:00: Lagarde. 12:45: Nagel. Also today: Strategy's CFO leaves, and Zcash's network upgrade.

  • Friday, 8:30 a.m.: the October jobs report, expected near 65K against 29K before (Trading Economics). 3:30 p.m.: the CFTC's weekly positioning report.

  • Monday: Strategy's usual filing. Nov 16: the deadline for Q3 13F filings.

Today's takeaway

Wednesday was a macro rally: a political result, cheaper oil and a weaker dollar all at once. The ETF flow turned for the first time in days, which is the first sign that the selling is slowing. It is one day, and the rate-hike odds are still high.

The line above is last night's high, then Wednesday's high. Below, it's the weekly-open area, then Tuesday's close. A hawkish Fed speaker or a hot jobs report can undo a macro rally quickly.

Inside Premium today

Yesterday's result: the "higher" case triggered at the 9 a.m. hour and reached all three zones. The "range" case was wrong, and the "break" case never triggered.

Today in Premium:

  • Wednesday's plan, graded. Why the yellow band mattered again, and what the zones missed.

  • 28 BTC key levels, each with its source, including Wednesday's high and Glassnode's cost bases.

  • Order book walls: the biggest standing orders on Coinbase, and how yesterday's walls fared.

  • Liquidation clusters: the biggest short pile above and the biggest long pile just below.

  • A plan for today: the Bank of England, claims and Fed speakers.

  • Whales & institutions: ETF flows by fund, the Trump Media transfer, and what's missing.

  • Options and funding check.

🔒 Scenario C: BTC hourly close below $8█,███ → next zones $7█,███ and $7█,███

Premium readers get all of this below 👇

Premium: Scorecard (Wednesday's plan, Nov 4)

Wednesday's plan was written at about 7:25 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $78,045. A was "higher" (an hourly close above $78,232). B was "range" ($77,424 to $78,154). C was "break" (an hourly close under $77,337). The daily close was at 7 p.m. ET, Thursday 00:00 UTC.

A · higher: triggered, and reached all three zones. The 7 a.m. hour closed at $78,190 and the 8 a.m. hour at $78,257, both inside the yellow band ($78,154 to $78,310), so neither counted. The 9 a.m. hour closed at $79,237, clear of the band, which confirmed the trigger. That same hour reached $78,622 and $79,107, and the 10 a.m. hour reached $80,053 with a high of $81,131. A's "wrong if" line (an hourly close under $77,337) never fired.

B · range: wrong. The daily close of $80,428 was above B's own limit ($78,762).

C · break: not triggered. The lowest hourly close after the plan was $78,190. None of C's zones was tested.

ETH: all three A zones, $2,327, $2,337 and $2,377, were reached in the 9 a.m. hour (the high was $2,385), and the day topped at $2,448. B and C weren't reached.

What we got right: A fired cleanly and the yellow-band rule held for the fourth time in a row: two closes inside the band, then a clean break. Ranking A and C above B was half right, because B was the case that failed.

What we got wrong: the ADP caveat. I wrote that a hot ADP would turn the weekly open back into a ceiling. ADP beat by about 20K and the 8 a.m. hour held inside the band before breaking higher. The zones were also too close together: Bitcoin cleared the third zone in the second hour and kept going. And last night's cluster read was wrong in direction: I said the long pool below was bigger, but price went up through the short clusters instead.

What we learned: a pool of liquidations doesn't tell you which way price goes. When the first zone is less than 1% away, I'll add a fourth zone, and I'll stop writing "hot data caps the price" without a specific number.

Premium: Key levels (cited)

28 BTC levels, each with its source.

BTC, above:

  • $87,249: the Oct 2 high (Coinbase daily candle).

  • $83,556: October's open (Coinbase).

  • $82,007: the Oct 19 weekly open (Coinbase).

  • $81.5K: the average cost basis of the US spot ETFs (Glassnode, The Week On-chain, Oct 28).

  • $81,131: Wednesday's high, 10 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).

  • $80,844: last night's high so far, 8 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).

  • $80,694: the Oct 16 low (Coinbase).

BTC, the middle:

  • $80,428: Wednesday's close, 7 p.m. ET (Coinbase).

  • $80,053: the Oct 26 weekly open (Coinbase).

  • $79,107: the Oct 24 low (Coinbase).

  • $78,762: the Sunday-night high (Coinbase).

  • $78,622: Wednesday morning's high, 6 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).

  • $78,232: this week's open (Coinbase).

  • $78,000: a put spread target Derive flagged (CoinDesk, Oct 16), and a round number.

  • $77.9K: the True Market Mean, an on-chain average-cost line (Glassnode, Oct 28).

  • $77,424: October's close and November's open (Coinbase).

  • $77,337: Tuesday's close, 7 p.m. ET (Coinbase).

BTC, below:

  • $76,553: Monday's low, 2 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).

  • $76,400: the 200-day average (FXStreet, Oct 30).

  • $76,239: Tuesday's low on the plan's day, 1 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).

  • $76,141: October's low, Oct 30 (Coinbase).

  • $75.8K: the short-term-holder cost basis, the average cost of coins bought in the last 155 days (Glassnode, Oct 28).

  • $75,601: Tuesday night's low, 10 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).

  • $75,545: a horizontal support. FXStreet says a daily close under it opens $70,000 (FXStreet, Oct 30).

  • $75,451: Strategy's average purchase price for its 849,327 BTC (Strategy filing, via The Block).

  • $75,000: a liquidation cluster flagged by Glassnode (Oct 7).

  • $74,000: the 23.6% retracement FXStreet named as the next stop if the 200-day average broke (FXStreet, Oct 26).

  • $70,000: FXStreet's path if $75,545 breaks on a daily close (FXStreet, Oct 30).

The order book walls and liquidation clusters have their own blocks below.

ETH:

  • $2,777: the October high (Coinbase).

  • $2,448: Wednesday's high, 10 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).

  • $2,435: last night's high so far, 10 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).

  • $2,390 and $2,377: the Oct 28 high and Oct 29 high (Coinbase).

  • $2,337: Wednesday morning's high, 6 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).

  • $2,327: the Oct 26 weekly open (Coinbase).

  • $2,311: ETH's realized price, the on-chain cost basis (FXStreet, Oct 24).

  • $2,290: the Oct 28 low (Coinbase).

  • $2,272: this week's open (Coinbase).

  • $2,252: November's open (Coinbase).

  • $2,223: Tuesday night's low (Coinbase).

  • $2,218: the low of Friday afternoon (Coinbase).

  • $2,205: a support from FXStreet (Oct 24).

  • $2,170: October's low (Coinbase).

  • $1,972 and $1,828: deeper supports (FXStreet, Oct 24).

Premium: Order book walls (snapshot 5:44 a.m. ET)

These are standing buy and sell orders on Coinbase (BTC-USD), taken at about 5:44 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $80,240. They are not trades, and they can be pulled in a blink. Kraken's snapshot only reached 0.1% either side of the price today, which is too shallow to use, so this block is Coinbase only.

Balance within 1% of the price. Coinbase has 105.5 BTC of bids and 406.4 BTC of asks, about 3.9 times more sell orders than buy orders. Yesterday it was about 1.15 times. That is a big lean to the sell side. It doesn't mean price falls: it can also mean buyers are waiting for a dip, or that bids were pulled after the jump.

Walls above:

  • 80,590.98 and 80,574.00: 54.1 BTC ($4.36M) and 50.0 BTC ($4.03M), two big orders 17 dollars apart. The round 50.0 BTC at a round price suggests one order (inference). Together they are about $8.4M of sell orders just above the market.

  • 81,040.00: 40.0 BTC ($3.24M), a round-number wall just under Wednesday's high.

  • 80,885 and 80,890: 25.0 BTC each ($2.02M apiece), five dollars apart. Two equal orders that close together look like one seller splitting an order (inference).

Walls below:

  • The bids are small: 80,139.86 12.7 BTC ($1.02M), 80,161.20 12.2 BTC ($0.98M), 79,000.00 10.9 BTC ($0.86M), 80,072.44 9.0 BTC and 79,777.00 8.5 BTC. The biggest bid is a fifth the size of the biggest ask.

Whale or market maker? The first five levels each side are almost empty, so I see no market-maker ladder. The big orders above look deliberate, but I can't see who placed them.

What happened to yesterday's walls. Price traded through all three of yesterday's sell walls (78,312, 79,780 and 80,000), so they were either hit or pulled, and I can't tell which. Yesterday's 76,100 bid is out of today's view.

Walls to watch (not predictions): the 80,574 to 80,591 pair, the twin 25 BTC orders, and the 40 BTC order at 81,040.

Caveats: walls can be spoofed, icebergs hide size, ETF and over-the-counter buying never shows in the book, and one venue is a small slice of the market.

Premium: Liquidation clusters (CoinGlass, about 5:50 a.m. ET)

This is CoinGlass's liquidation map for Binance BTC/USDT (Model 1, 24-hour window), read at about 5:50 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $80,240. The bars are CoinGlass's model estimates of where leveraged positions would be force-closed. They are not actual positions. Clusters that price has already traded through disappear from the map.

Shorts above (forced buys, fuel for a squeeze):

  • The nearest clusters are $81,199 ($15.3M), $81,265 ($19.9M), $81,331 ($18.6M) and $81,463 ($29.6M). The biggest is $81,529 ($82.8M). Then come $82,188 ($24.3M) and $82,254 ($19.6M).

  • Added up from the price: about $54M of shorts by $81,331, about $198M by $81,529, about $284M by $82,254, and about $415M up to $84,035.

Longs below (forced sells):

  • The nearest cluster is also the biggest: $79,880 ($103.2M), only 0.45% under the price. Then come $79,814 ($31.2M), $79,748 ($31.9M), $79,616 ($19.0M), $79,088 ($45.7M), $78,692 ($27.1M), $78,626 ($28.4M) and $77,505 ($30.9M).

  • Added up from the price: about $112M of longs by $79,880, about $214M by $79,616, about $304M by $79,088, about $423M by $78,626, about $544M by $77,505, and about $657M down to $75,130.

Which side is the bigger pool? Within about 2% of the price, longs below total about $400M or more and shorts above about $216M. The long pool is about twice as big. A bigger pool can pull price toward it, but yesterday showed nothing says it will.

How it lines up with the other blocks:

  • The biggest short cluster sits right on the ETF cost basis, and the 40 BTC sell wall and Wednesday's high sit just below it. That is the strongest confluence on the upside.

  • The biggest long cluster sits just under the Oct 26 weekly open, which is also A's failure line and C's trigger. A dip into it is not yet a break.

  • Yesterday's short clusters ($79,008 to $80,025) are gone: price went through them and Wednesday's high exceeded them.

Caveats: Binance BTC/USDT only, one model, a 24-hour window, a single snapshot. Wednesday's rally cleared a lot of shorts, so today's map is mostly new positions.

Premium: Scenario plan (Bank of England, claims, Fed speakers)

These are conditional scenarios, not predictions or buy/sell calls. A "break" needs an hourly close, not a wick. A close within about 0.1% of a trigger is a yellow light: check the next hour. I'm writing this at about 6:15 a.m. ET Thursday, before the Bank of England.

Where BTC starts: about $80,243, sitting just above the Oct 26 weekly open. ETH starts near $2,416.

The drivers, in order of when they land:

  1. 7:00 a.m.: the Bank of England.

  2. 8:30 a.m.: jobless claims.

  3. 8:50 and 9:10 a.m.: Hammack and Barkin.

  4. 11:00 a.m.: Lagarde. Today: Airbnb, ConocoPhillips and the Zcash upgrade.

  5. Friday: the jobs report. There's no scheduled event tonight after the 7 p.m. close, so this plan covers the close.

A · Higher: BTC makes an hourly close above $80,844.

  • BTC: $81,131 → $81.5K → $82,007 → $83,556. ETH: $2,435 → $2,448, then nothing cited until the October high.

  • This scenario is wrong if: BTC falls back under $80,053 on an hourly close within a day.

  • The yellow band is $80,763 to $80,925. The 40 BTC sell wall and Wednesday's high sit inside or just above it, so a close there needs a second look.

B · Range: BTC stays between $80,053 and $80,694.

  • BTC: that band, about 0.8% wide, with the current price inside it. ETH: $2,377 to $2,435.

  • This scenario is wrong if: BTC has a daily close (tonight 7 p.m. ET, Friday 00:00 UTC) under $78,622 or above $81.5K.

C · Break: BTC makes an hourly close under $80,053.

  • BTC: $79,107 → $78,762 → $78,232 → $77,424. ETH: $2,377 → $2,327 → $2,311 → $2,290.

  • This scenario is wrong if: BTC slips under $80,053 but the daily close is back above $80,844.

  • The yellow band is $79,973 to $80,133. The biggest long cluster sits just under the trigger, so a close inside the band is only a yellow light. The first zone then runs through the rest of the long clusters.

What could drive each one. A: a softer-than-expected jobs setup, a dovish Bank of England surprise or Fed speakers who sound relaxed. C: a hawkish Hammack or Barkin, a hot claims print, or a reversal in oil. The December hike odds are high, so I'm ranking C above A today and B in the middle.

Before the 7:00 a.m. Bank of England, in both directions:

  • If BTC closes an hour above last night's high before 8:30, then the next zones are Wednesday's high and the ETF cost basis. A hawkish surprise would turn the cost basis back into a ceiling.

  • If BTC closes an hour under the weekly open before 8:30, then the next zones are the Oct 24 low and the Sunday-night high. A dovish surprise would need to reclaim Wednesday's close first.

What I'd skip: the first 15 minutes after 7:00, 8:30, 8:50 and 11:00 a.m. The first read of a release is often reversed.

Premium: Whales & institutions

Five items, each dated, plus what I couldn't find.

1. ETF flows by fund, Wednesday Nov 4 (TFTC, checked 5:00 a.m. ET today; IBIT included): IBIT −$201.2M, FBTC +$236.7M, BITB +$15.2M, ARKB +$19.9M, BTCO +$4.0M. Total +$74.6M, and the line sums. November so far is −$439.6M. IBIT is −$701.5M of it and FBTC +$250.2M. It's the first day ARKB shows money in this month's table. TFTC says the data was updated Nov 4, so it may be revised. The on-chain side of these flows is redemption plumbing (BlackRock wallets moving coins to Coinbase Prime), not BlackRock selling. I found no such transfers today.

2. How much the average ETF buyer is up or down. Glassnode's US spot ETF cost basis was $81.5K on Oct 28. At today's price that's about 1.5% under water, against about 4% on Wednesday. The cost basis moves every day, so treat it as a snapshot.

3. Trump Media. Arkham data shows 4,259 BTC sent to Crypto.com at 02:17 UTC Thursday from addresses labeled as collateral for its 2028 convertible notes (CoinDesk, 11:11 p.m. ET Wednesday). That's about $342 million at today's price. CoinDesk's body text says $434 million, which looks like an error. Moved to an exchange is not sold. It's a possible sale or a collateral move, and I have no confirmation either way.

4. Treasury companies. I found no purchase announcement this week. Strategy's shares rose about 6% and Strive's about 12% on Wednesday (The Block). Strategy's last filing was Monday's 8-K, and its average cost is in the key levels. Its next filing is the next check.

5. Binance. Its proof of reserves now covers 44 tokens, and the new proof takes 50 to 60 hours. I found no update on the stolen BTC, and no result from the second snapshot.

Not found today: CME positioning (the next report is Friday at 3:30 p.m. ET, covering Tuesday Nov 3), CryptoQuant's whale-wallet holdings, Hyperliquid whale positions, Lookonchain items, BlackRock or Coinbase Prime transfers, and Ether ETF flows. Q3 13F filings are due Monday Nov 16 and show positions as of Sept 30, before the Binance hack.

Premium: Options and funding check

DVOL is about 37.0 on Deribit, down from 38.1 at Wednesday's close. Implied volatility has fallen for a second day while the price rose.

Funding (OKX, 8h): BTC is back at the +0.0100% level, up from Wednesday, and ETH edged up too. Longs are paying, as they did on the way down.

Open interest fell as the price rose, so the rally was not driven by new leveraged longs. That fits the short clusters that went through on Wednesday.

Options: I found no new options-flow reporting today. The next monthly expiry is Nov 27.

What I'm watching

  • The Bank of England at 7:00, claims at 8:30, and Hammack and Barkin after that.

  • Whether the weekly open holds as support, with the biggest long cluster sitting just under it.

  • Whether a second day of ETF inflows follows.

  • The 80,574 to 80,591 sell-wall pair and the 40 BTC order at 81,040.

  • The final Senate count, and any move in the Trump Media coins.

  • Friday's jobs report and CFTC positioning.

  • The next scorecard is Friday's edition.

— Pro Swing Trader

This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.

Sources: Coinbase Exchange candles – prices, opens, highs and lows · Coinbase order book · CoinGlass – Liquidation Heatmap · CoinDesk – Bitcoin holds above $80,000 as Zcash jumps 12% · CoinDesk – Trump Media moves bitcoin to Crypto.com · CoinDesk – Block faces $764 million DOJ settlement · The Block – Bitcoin price, midterm elections · The Block – Coinbase, Binance proof of reserves · The Block – Democratic sweep and crypto policy · The Block – French bank confirms cyberattack · Decrypt – Bitcoin rebounds after the Democratic midterm sweep · FXStreet – US dollar breaks below 101.50 as Democrats sweep Congress · FXStreet – BoE expected to hike to 4.00% · investingLive – Americas market news wrap · investingLive – Qualcomm beats Q4 forecasts · investingLive – Arm Q2 · investingLive – AMD · investingLive – Super Micro · investingLive – main events today · Trading Economics – US stock market · Trading Economics – ISM services · Trading Economics – ADP · Trading Economics – non-farm payrolls · TFTC – BTC ETF flows, November 2026 · Glassnode – The Week On-chain, Week 43 · SEC – Form 13F FAQ · FXStreet – Top 3 price predictions (Oct 30) · FXStreet – Bitcoin tests $80K support (Oct 26) · FXStreet – technical levels (Oct 16 to 24) · CoinDesk – bitcoin put spread and options (Oct 16) · OKX – funding and open interest · DefiLlama – stablecoins · Deribit – DVOL · alternative.me – Fear & Greed