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Pro Swing Trader Daily Brief
Saturday, November 14, 2026
Good morning. Bitcoin spent Friday afternoon sliding, then dropped again from about 9 p.m. ET, and this morning it hit a new low for the move. That's about $2,000 under where it closed Friday.
The week closes tomorrow at 7 p.m. ET, and Bitcoin is on track for its sixth straight weekly loss. The fear gauge is at 13, the lowest it has been in this slide.
Friday's data was friendlier than the price. Producer inflation came in cooler than expected, and stocks barely moved. Bitcoin didn't care.
I'm writing at about 10 a.m. ET on Saturday.
Updates to Friday's edition
A correction on ETFs. Friday I gave Thursday's spot Bitcoin ETF outflow as $47.7M, citing an early CoinDesk figure. Cointelegraph, citing Farside, has Thursday at $284.1M, and that number matches the weekly total. The "smaller than any of the previous five days" line was wrong. Thursday was the second-biggest outflow of the week.
The 200-week average. I wrote Friday that Bitcoin "touched" its 200-week average. It traded below it briefly, by about $440 at the low, before closing back above it.
PPI. The consensus I gave (+0.4% headline, +0.3% core) was right. The result is below.
Nvidia. I couldn't confirm the Nov 17 earnings date Friday. Two secondary sources now say Tuesday after the close.
Stocks. I now have Friday's index closes. Thursday's closes I still don't have.
Why the Friday-night leg happened. I couldn't find a headline for it. I'm not going to guess.
Friday: a cooler PPI and three Fed speakers
October producer prices rose 0.3% against 0.4% expected. The core number, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3%, in line. The yearly figures were 6.5% headline against 6.6% expected, and 5.0% for core.
The Fed speakers didn't take the hint. Collins said some additional policy tightening is warranted soon, and called inflation too high and "broadening". Daly said "in all likelihood, we need to raise rates." Goolsbee said the economy isn't on the way back to 2% inflation (investingLive). Bank of America now calls for hikes in December, January and March.
Fed funds futures still put a quarter-point December hike at about 85% to 89%, and a half-point at about 10% to 15% (CME FedWatch, as quoted by CoinDesk and Trading Economics).
Stocks, yields and the dollar
The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Dow rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell about 0.9% (investingLive). Nvidia closed near $162.85, down 2%, in interim CEO Colette Kress's first week.
The real mover was the bond market. The 10-year yield ended the week near 5.14%, about 30 basis points higher on the week, and the 30-year is near 5.48%. The dollar index has gained three weeks in a row (FXStreet). Gold fell more than 4% on the week.
Oil is steady, with Brent near $96 and WTI near $89. The yen is the thing to watch: USD/JPY is near 160, Japan has spent ¥27.1 trillion defending it this year (FXStreet), and Tokyo has issued a warning, though I found no actual intervention.
ETFs: day seven
Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost money again on Friday, with IBIT at −$143.5M and FBTC at −$41.9M (Farside, via Cointelegraph). That's seven outflow days in a row.
The week came to a bit over $1B of outflows, after $1.28B the week before. IBIT has now had outflows on 11 sessions in a row, about $2.35B over the run, and it accounts for roughly 90% of November's net withdrawals.
Jane Street's Q3 filing, a headline I haven't read, says it boosted its Fidelity Bitcoin ETF stake about eightfold while trimming IBIT by 19%. Funds moving between ETFs isn't the same as funds leaving Bitcoin.
I couldn't find Ether ETF flows for any day this week.
Where Bitcoin stands
Bitcoin is about 11.4% under this week's open and about 21% down for the year (CoinDesk). It would need to be above $87,500 by Dec 31 to finish 2026 higher.
The 200-week average, near $68,000, is now overhead.
Ether is about 12.5% under its own weekly open.
Market dashboard
BTC | $68,237 (Friday 7 p.m. ET close) · −4.39% · about $66,250 at 9:30 a.m. ET · since the close: low $65,916 (9 a.m. hour) |
ETH | $1,928 (Friday close) · −4.42% · about $1,859 · since the close: low $1,841 (9 a.m. hour) |
Funding rate (OKX, 8h) | BTC −0.0009% · ETH −0.0011% (close to neutral) |
Liquidations (24h, CoinGlass ticker, 9:33 a.m. ET) | $801M · long/short split not stated |
Open interest | OKX BTC perps $2.24B (33,860 BTC) · about −1.5% since Friday 7:55 a.m. |
BTC ETF flow | Friday −$185.4M · Thursday −$284.1M (Farside via Cointelegraph) · this week about −$1.07B |
ETH ETF flow | — (not found) |
Stablecoins (USDT + USDC) | $244.4B · 7-day −$2.98B |
Whale line | Jane Street's Q3 13F: Fidelity ETF stake up about 8x, IBIT down 19% (headline) · no new Strategy purchase found |
Fear & Greed (alternative.me) | 13 (extreme fear) · Friday 20 |
DXY · US 10Y · Brent · Gold | about 103.4 · about 5.14% · about $96 · about $3,885 (futures) |
Open interest is the total value of futures contracts still open. It's lower, but not collapsing, so the market isn't done adjusting.
What the dashboard says. Funding has drifted back to neutral, so the leverage that got flushed on Thursday night hasn't rebuilt. The price is falling anyway, which points to spot selling and ETF outflows, not forced selling.
Treasuries and miners
Strategy's stock closed Friday near $111.61, and its preferred shares, STRC, trade a few cents under their $100 par. Strategy holds a dollar reserve of nearly $5B (CoinDesk). I found no new purchase.
Metaplanet swung to a $170M loss as its Bitcoin sale hit earnings (Cointelegraph headline). Nakamoto's shares fell 6% in premarket on negative Q3 revenue, a day after we learned it owes Kraken more than its market value. Twenty One Capital reported $1.09B of Q3 net income on Bitcoin gains, which is the other side of the same trade (The Block).
The CFTC's weekly positioning report is the usual Saturday item. I couldn't find a new one. The last release I could confirm covered Nov 3, and one source says the next, for Nov 10, is due Monday.
Altcoins
Everything fell, with SOL and HYPE down 8% to 9%. SOL is near $74.5, HYPE near $67, XRP near $0.98, BNB near $602 and ZEC near $881 (CoinDesk, Decrypt tickers, undated).
Hyperliquid passed Bybit, Kraken and OKX in open interest this quarter, as its Q3 positions grew 80% (The Block). That's a lot of leverage on one venue.
CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index rose to 48 from 39, which still reads as "not altcoin season" (CoinDesk).
Crypto newsstand
Washington. Trump nominated two people for the SEC and two for the CFTC, and the Senate Banking Committee is moving toward hearings next week (Decrypt, CoinDesk).
Prediction markets. The House Oversight chair called for a possible ban on government officials' prediction-market bets, and CFTC Chair Selig said states are trying to "lock up" founders (The Block).
Stablecoins. Supply is down $14.2B in 30 days, the biggest drop since June 2022. Glassnode says a return to growth would be the first sign of new money.
The weekend and next week (ET)
Today: Fed Governor Jefferson speaks (time unconfirmed). No data.
Sunday: the weekly close at 7 p.m. ET.
Monday Nov 16: the delayed CFTC report (one source), the Q3 13F deadline, China activity data and the New York Fed manufacturing survey.
Tuesday Nov 17: retail sales at 8:30 a.m. (FXStreet expects a flat headline and +0.4% excluding autos), Home Depot before the open, and Nvidia after the close.
Wednesday Nov 18: FOMC minutes at 2:00 p.m., big-box retail earnings, and the Trump–Xi meeting at APEC. Anthropic's IPO is also due to price that night (investingLive).
Later: Walmart on Nov 19, the Nov 20 expiry of the ETH $1,800 put, the Nov 27 options expiry, MSCI's deletions on Nov 30, the Fed on Dec 8–9 and CPI on Dec 10.
Today's takeaway
When Bitcoin falls on a day with good data, the data isn't what's driving it. The selling is coming from the ETFs, and until they slow, the price has nothing to lean on.
Yesterday's result: the "range" case from Friday's plan was the right read until the 7 p.m. close. The "break" case then triggered at 10 p.m., after the plan's cut-off, and reached two of four zones.
Today in Premium:
Friday's plan, graded. A range that held until the close, a break that came three hours later, and a second day of ranking A over C.
26 BTC key levels, each with its source, redrawn after the 200-week average was lost.
Order book walls: the stacked pairs again, and what happened to yesterday's 79 BTC bid.
Liquidation clusters: longs and shorts are about even nearby, and the shorts are far bigger further out.
A weekend plan, in both directions, with a line for the weekly close.
Whales & institutions: ETF flows by fund, the Thursday correction, and who is underwater.
Options and funding check.
🔒 Scenario C: BTC hourly close below $6█,███ → next zones $6█,███ and $6█,███
Premium readers get all of this below 👇
Friday's plan was written at about 8:15 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $69,170. A was "relief" (an hourly close above $70,000). B was "range" ($67,993 to $70,000). C was "break" (an hourly close under $67,993). The daily close was at 7 p.m. ET, Saturday 00:00 UTC. I ranked B first, then A, then C.
B · range: the right read through the close, then the exit fired. The price stayed inside the band all day, and the daily close ($68,237) finished inside it. The 6 p.m. hour wicked under the band, to $67,778, but closed above it. The 9 p.m. hour closed at $67,624, clear of the yellow band ($67,925 to $68,061). That was a clean close outside. The next hours closed at $66,689 and $67,022, so the hold test passed and the exit was confirmed at 10 p.m.
C · break: triggered at 10 p.m., after the cut-off, two of four zones reached. The plan's "after 7 p.m." line said a late break would head for the same zones. The first zone, $67,555, was reached in the 9 p.m. hour (low $66,789). The second, $66,704, was reached in the 10 p.m. hour (low $66,550), and the 11 p.m. hour went to $66,369. The third, $65,463, is still unreached: the low so far is $65,916, in the 9 a.m. hour this morning, $453 above it. The fourth, $57,700, is far off. C's "wrong if" line (a daily close back above $70,000) did not fire.
A · relief: not triggered. The 8 a.m. hour spiked to $70,142 and closed at $69,494, under the yellow band ($69,930 to $70,070). That spike came around the PPI release and failed.
ETH: the first C zone, $1,894, was reached in the 9 p.m. hour (low $1,875). The second, $1,800, has not been: the low so far is $1,841, $41 above it. B's band ($1,894 to $2,000) held through the close.
Order book and clusters. The 79 BTC bid stack at 68,843, the 22.1 BTC bid at 67,500 and the 78.5 BTC ask stack at 69,449 were all traded through. The 8 a.m. spike took out the nearest short clusters ($69,600, $69,807 and $70,014). The long clusters at $68,359 and $67,463 were cleared in the evening.
What we got right: ranking B first, the hold-test rule (it confirmed the exit again), and the after-7-p.m. line, which named the zones that were reached.
What we got wrong: I ranked A above C for the second day in a row, and for the second day the break was the case that triggered. The ranking said "B, A, C" because funding was negative and the shorts above were the bigger pool. That reasoning was fine on its own. It ignored six straight days of ETF outflows.
What we learned: when ETFs are selling every day, rank C above A unless there's a specific reason not to. A bigger short pool is fuel, but it doesn't create demand.
26 BTC levels, each with its source.
BTC, above:
$81.5K: the average cost basis of the US spot ETFs (Glassnode, The Week On-chain, Oct 28).
$78,232: the Nov 2 weekly open (Coinbase).
$77.7K: the True Market Mean, an on-chain average-cost line (Glassnode, Nov 4).
$77,424: October's close and November's open (Coinbase).
$76,497: the 200-day average (Decrypt, Nov 6). Bitget's Lewis Huang put a 200-day average near $73,200 on Nov 10 (The Block), so the two sources disagree.
$76,141: October's low, Oct 30 (Coinbase).
$75,456: Strategy's average purchase price for its 850,364 BTC (Strategy 8-K of Nov 9, via Decrypt).
$74,756: this week's open, Monday 00:00 UTC (Coinbase).
$73,636: Monday's low (Coinbase).
$72,643: Tuesday's low (Coinbase).
$72,250: where the biggest Thursday-night liquidation, a $31.1M Hyperliquid long, was closed out (CoinDesk, Nov 13).
$71,429: Thursday's high in the 7 p.m. ET hour, the last hour before the drop (Coinbase).
$70,142: Friday's high, 8 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$70,000: the round number lost Thursday night (FXStreet, Oct 30).
BTC, the weekend range:
$69,000: 21Shares' downside level, now resistance (The Block, Nov 10).
$68,237: Friday's 7 p.m. ET close, the weekly-close reference (Coinbase).
$68,000: Wintermute's second downside target (Decrypt, Nov 6).
$67,993: the 200-week average, lost Friday night (Cointelegraph, citing Material Indicators). CoinDesk puts it near $68,000.
$67,555: Friday's low, midnight ET hour (Coinbase).
$66,550: Friday night's low in the 10 p.m. hour (Coinbase).
$66,369: Friday's 11 p.m. hour low (Coinbase).
$65,916: this morning's low so far, 9 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
BTC, below:
$65,528: the biggest long-liquidation cluster nearby, about $25M (CoinGlass, 9:33 a.m. ET).
$64,819: a long-liquidation cluster (CoinGlass).
$64,405: a long-liquidation cluster (CoinGlass).
$57.7K: the cycle-low level one analyst named as the next test if weekly RSI support is lost (Material Indicators via Cointelegraph, Nov 13).
There is no cited support between $64,405 and $57.7K. The long-liquidation clusters below are the only markers in that gap.
ETH:
$2,327: the Oct 26 weekly open (Coinbase).
$2,311: ETH's realized price, the on-chain cost basis (FXStreet, Oct 24).
$2,252: November's open (Coinbase).
$2,125: this week's open (Coinbase).
$2,019: Thursday's high, 7 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$2,000: the support 21Shares and The Block named, lost Thursday night (The Block, Nov 10).
$1,972: Thursday night's 9 p.m. hour low (Coinbase).
$1,928: Friday's 7 p.m. ET close (Coinbase).
$1,894: Friday's low, midnight ET hour (Coinbase).
$1,841: this morning's low so far, 9 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$1,828: a deeper support (FXStreet, Oct 24).
$1,800: a support 21Shares named, and the strike of the most-traded ETH put, expiring Nov 20 (21Shares; CoinDesk).
$1,717: where CoinDesk calculates BTCS's $64M Aave loan could become eligible for liquidation (CoinDesk, Nov 13).
These are standing buy and sell orders on Coinbase (BTC-USD) and Kraken (BTC/USD), taken at about 9:28 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $66,240. They are not trades, and they can be pulled in a blink.
Balance within 1% of the price. Coinbase has 262.6 BTC of bids and 208.5 BTC of asks, about 26% more buy orders. Kraken has 220.8 BTC of bids and 161.1 BTC of asks, about 37% more buy orders. Both venues lean to the buy side.
Walls below (bids):
Coinbase 65,952.10 and 65,952.11: 51.3 BTC ($3.39M) and 25.5 BTC ($1.68M), one cent apart, together 76.8 BTC. This is the biggest bid on Coinbase's book, about 0.4% below the price and $36 above this morning's low. A pair a cent apart looks like one participant splitting an order (inference).
Coinbase 65,500.00: 16.4 BTC ($1.08M), a round number. Smaller bids sit at 66,013.32 (16.3 BTC) and 66,047.09 (12.5 BTC).
Kraken 66,097.40: 30.3 BTC ($2.00M), with 15.0 BTC at 66,203.80.
Walls above (asks):
Coinbase 66,480.07 and 66,480.06: 53.4 BTC ($3.55M) and 25.6 BTC ($1.70M), one cent apart again, together 79.0 BTC. It's the nearest big ask, about 0.4% above the price.
Kraken 67,616.20: 22.0 BTC ($1.49M), with 15.0 BTC at 66,320.90.
Higher up: 25.8 BTC at 69,500.00, 22.5 BTC at 69,700.00 and 22.5 BTC at 69,900.00, all on Coinbase and all just under the $70,000 level.
What happened to yesterday's walls. The 79 BTC bid stack at 68,843 and the 78.5 BTC ask stack at 69,449 were both traded through. The new stacks look like the old ones moved down about $2,900 to $3,000, which is about what the price did: a 51.3 and 25.5 BTC pair on the bid and a 53.4 and 25.6 BTC pair on the ask, each a cent apart, with almost the same sizes as yesterday's 54.6 and 24.4, and 53.8 and 24.7. That looks like the same market maker re-quoting both sides as the price falls (inference). On Kraken, the 29 BTC bid is now 30.3 BTC at 66,097.40.
Whale or market maker? The mirrored, cent-apart pairs on both sides, repeated on two days at different price levels, point to a market maker. The first five levels each side are almost empty. I can't see who placed the orders.
Walls to watch (not predictions): the 76.8 BTC bid stack at 65,952 and the 79 BTC ask stack at 66,480.
Caveats: walls can be spoofed, icebergs hide size, ETF and over-the-counter buying never shows in the book, and two venues are a small slice of the market. Weekend books are thinner. Most walls here are worth $1M to $4M.
This is CoinGlass's liquidation map for Binance BTC/USDT (Model 1, 24-hour window), read at about 9:35 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $66,250. The bars are CoinGlass's model estimates of where leveraged positions would be force-closed. They are not actual positions. Clusters that the price has already traded through disappear from the map.
Nearby it's even, further out the shorts dominate. Within 2% of the price there are about $134M of longs below and about $109M of shorts above. Within 4% it's about $390M of shorts against about $195M of longs. The map's scan started at $71,846, where the shorts already add up to about $576M, so there is more above that I didn't read.
Shorts above (forced buys):
The nearest clusters add up to about $25M by $67,063, then $67,122 ($15.0M), $67,476 ($21.5M), $67,654 ($14.0M), $67,713 ($24.6M), $68,008 ($24.6M) and $68,126 ($30.4M), the biggest single cluster I could read. Further up: $68,421 ($19.9M), $68,834 ($15.9M), $69,070 ($12.1M), $69,779 ($18.2M) and $70,428 ($7.8M).
Added up from the price: about $25M of shorts by $67,063, about $96M by $67,476, about $190M by $67,890, about $261M by $68,126, about $304M by $68,421, about $390M by $68,893, about $509M by $69,779, about $544M by $70,606, and about $576M by $71,846.
Longs below (forced sells):
The nearest cluster is $65,941 ($7.6M), then $65,823 ($12.4M), $65,764 ($13.1M), $65,705 ($12.3M) and $65,528 ($25.5M), the biggest I could read. Further down: $65,173 ($11.0M), $64,819 (about $12.7M by the cumulative jump), $64,405 ($9.9M) and $63,520 ($6.4M).
Added up from the price: about $8M of longs by $65,941, about $60M by $65,705, about $94M by $65,528, about $132M by $65,173, about $175M by $64,405, and about $201M down to $63,520.
Which side is the bigger pool? Nearby it's about even. Further out, the shorts. A bigger pool can pull price toward it, but a cluster is fuel, not a floor.
How it lines up with the other blocks:
The first long clusters ($65,941 to $65,705) and the biggest ($65,528) sit right on and just under the 76.8 BTC bid stack at 65,952 and this morning's low.
The biggest nearby short cluster ($68,126) sits right at the 200-week average and Friday's 7 p.m. reference level, with the 79 BTC ask stack at 66,480 in front of it.
The shorts between $68,421 and $70,428 sit under the round $70,000 level, where yesterday's spike failed.
What changed since yesterday: Friday's nearest long clusters ($68,359 and $67,463) were cleared by the drop. The $70,142 spike took the short clusters at $69,600 to $70,014. The map has rebuilt shorts much closer to the price this time, and the longs have thinned.
Caveats: Binance BTC/USDT only, one model, a 24-hour window, a single snapshot. The map's price steps are wide, so my read skips some rows. A move in either direction will change this map within minutes.
These are conditional scenarios, not predictions or buy/sell calls. A "break" needs an hourly close, not a wick. A close within about 0.1% of a trigger is a yellow light: check the next hour. I'm writing this at about 10:15 a.m. ET Saturday. The daily close is tonight at 7 p.m. ET, Sunday 00:00 UTC, and the weekly close is Sunday at 7 p.m. ET.
Where BTC starts: about $66,250, between this morning's low and Friday's low. ETH starts near $1,859.
The drivers, in order of when they land:
Today: no data. Jefferson speaks (time unconfirmed). Weekend books are thin, so any ETF-related or Nvidia headline can move price more than usual.
Tonight at 7 p.m.: the daily close. The plan below ends there.
Sunday 7 p.m.: the weekly close, and the Asian open right after it.
After the daily close: a break at the weekend would head for the same zones as the one below. Monday brings the delayed CFTC report, the 13F deadline and China data.
A · Relief: BTC makes an hourly close above $67,993.
BTC: $68,237 → $69,000 → $70,000 → $70,142. ETH: $1,894 → $1,928 → $1,972 → $2,000.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC falls back under $65,916 on an hourly close within a day.
The yellow band is $67,925 to $68,061. The biggest nearby short cluster ($68,126) and the 200-week average sit inside it, so a close there needs a second look.
B · Range: BTC stays between $65,916 and $67,555.
BTC: that band, about 2.5% wide, with the current price inside it. ETH: $1,841 to $1,894.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC makes a clean hourly close outside the band, and the next hourly close doesn't bring it back inside. A daily close is the final test.
C · Break: BTC makes an hourly close under $65,916.
BTC: $65,528 → $64,819 → $64,405 → $57,700. The first three are cluster levels from the liquidation block above, and the last is the analyst's cycle-low level, with nothing cited between $64,405 and $57,700. ETH: $1,841 → $1,800 → $1,717, with no cited level below.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC slips under $65,916 but the daily close is back above $67,555.
The yellow band is $65,850 to $65,982. The price is about 0.4% above it now. The 76.8 BTC bid stack at 65,952 and the first long clusters sit around it, so a close inside the band is only a yellow light.
What could drive each one. A: a quiet weekend with ETFs on hold until Monday, short covering into the $68,126 cluster, or a bounce from extreme fear. C: more weekend selling on thin books, a headline from Nvidia or the Fed, or an eighth straight day of ETF outflows on Monday. I'm ranking B first, then C, then A. The new rule from today's scorecard is that when ETFs are selling every day, C goes above A. It's a ranking, not a call.
Before Sunday's Asian open, in both directions:
If BTC closes an hour above $67,993 before then, then the next zones are $68,237 and $69,000. It would mean the 200-week average was reclaimed with the weekly close still ahead.
If BTC closes an hour under $65,916 before then, then the next zone is $65,528 and the clusters beneath it. It would mean the weekly close is likely to be well under the 200-week average.
After 7 p.m.: the plan ends at the close. If a break happens late, the next two zones are the ones above, and I'll write Monday's plan around the weekly close and the delayed CFTC report.
What I'd skip: the first hour after the daily close, and any weekend candle that moves $1,000 on no news. Weekend books are thin and can reverse quickly.
Five items, each dated, plus what I couldn't find. Saturday is the weekend ETF rule, so the flow data below is from Thursday and Friday.
1. ETF flows (Farside via Cointelegraph for Nov 12 and 13; TFTC only goes through Nov 11). Friday Nov 13: −$185.4M, with IBIT −$143.5M and FBTC −$41.9M. Thursday Nov 12: −$284.1M. That corrects the −$47.7M I printed Friday, which was CoinDesk's early Farside number. Wednesday Nov 11 was −$299.9M, with IBIT −$269.7M, GBTC −$39.1M and MSBT +$9.0M (TFTC). That's seven outflow days in a row since Nov 5, about $1.9B by my sum of TFTC's five days and Farside's Thursday and Friday. The week was about −$1.07B (Monday through Friday), and the week before was −$1.28B. IBIT has had 11 straight outflow sessions since Oct 30, about $2.35B, and about $2.12B of November's net outflows (Cointelegraph). The on-chain side of these flows is redemption plumbing, not BlackRock selling. I found no BlackRock or Coinbase Prime transfers.
2. How much the average ETF buyer is up or down. Glassnode's US spot ETF cost basis was $81.5K on Oct 28. At today's price that's about 19% under water, worse than a day ago. The cost basis moves every day, so treat it as a snapshot.
3. Strategy. The stock closed Friday near $111.61. Its holdings are unchanged since the Nov 9 8-K: 850,364 BTC at an average of about $75,456, which is about 12% under water at today's price. CoinDesk says it holds a USD reserve of nearly $5B. MSCI deletes it after the close on Nov 30, and its own filing says index funds hold about 13M shares.
4. Q3 13F filings (due Monday, per my notes). Jane Street's filing, as reported in a headline I didn't open, shows it boosted its Fidelity Bitcoin ETF position about eightfold and cut IBIT by 19%. The Block's headline says JPMorgan reported a 36% rise in its Strategy holdings. These are positions as of Sept 30, before the Oct 29 Binance hack.
5. CFTC positioning. I couldn't find a new Commitments of Traders report, and no figures for hedge funds or asset managers in CME Bitcoin futures. The last release I could confirm covered Nov 3 positions. One source says the Nov 10 report is due Monday.
Not found today: Arkham and Lookonchain whale transfers, Hyperliquid whale positions, CryptoQuant holdings, new Glassnode data, Ether ETF flows, MARA, and Strategy's response to the MSCI decision.
DVOL: Deribit's volatility index closed Friday at 39.9 and is about 43.4 this morning, the highest in this stretch. The market is pricing a bigger move than it was a day ago.
Skew: the one-week 25-delta skew, which measures how much more puts cost than calls, was about 14% on Friday (CoinDesk). The most-traded Ether option is the $1,800 put expiring Nov 20, about 3% under today's price. That's close.
Funding (OKX, 8h): BTC −0.0009% and ETH −0.0011%, up from −0.0064% and −0.0076% on Friday. Both are now near zero. It means the short-paying-long imbalance from Friday faded, and the market isn't heavily positioned either way.
Open interest on OKX is about 1.5% lower than Friday morning. CoinGlass's market-wide figure fell about 6% in 24 hours.
Options: I found no Deribit put-volume, max-pain or expiry data this morning. The next monthly expiry is Nov 27. CoinDesk's Greeks.live item says dealer hedging may amplify moves at current price ranges. I didn't open the article.
What I'm watching
Whether $65,916 holds on an hourly close, and whether $67,993 gets reclaimed before Sunday's weekly close.
The 76.8 BTC bid stack at 65,952 and the 79 BTC ask stack at 66,480.
ETF flows on Monday, and whether IBIT's streak reaches 12.
The Monday CFTC report and the 13F deadline.
Nvidia's Tuesday earnings, retail sales and Wednesday's FOMC minutes.
DVOL above 43 and the $1,800 ETH put.
The next scorecard is Sunday's edition, and the weekly review follows the close.
— Pro Swing Trader
This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.
Sources: Coinbase Exchange candles – prices, opens, highs and lows · Coinbase order book · Kraken order book · CoinGlass – Liquidation Heatmap · Cointelegraph – ETF outflows, BlackRock 11-session streak · CoinDesk – live news, Bitcoin drops below 200-week moving average · CoinDesk – Bitcoin hits 12-week low, liquidations top $1.6 billion · CoinDesk – Bitcoin ETFs down over $1.5 billion for the year · Decrypt – Bitcoin hits 12-week low as Fed rate fears undo summer rally · investingLive – US October PPI · investingLive – Americas market news wrap · investingLive – Daly: we need to raise rates · FXStreet – week ahead: Fed minutes, inflation data and Nvidia earnings · Trading Economics – crude oil, Brent, DXY, gold · Investing.com – economic calendar · The Block – Hyperliquid open interest · Decrypt – SEC and CFTC nominees · TFTC – BTC ETF flows, November 2026 · Cointelegraph – Bitcoin returns to 200-week trend line · CoinDesk – BTCS sold ether to keep a $64M Aave loan healthy · Glassnode – Week 44 · The Block – Bitcoin slides below $74,000 · OKX – funding and open interest · DefiLlama – stablecoins · alternative.me – Fear & Greed · Deribit – DVOL