Sponsored by
A CRM so smart, it updates itself.
HubSpot's CRM is so smart, it now updates itself. Calls get logged and summarized the moment they end. New leads get researched and a first outreach drafted, automatically. Deals move forward on their own, with next steps flagged before you have to ask.
Even the one repetitive task you've been meaning to fix can now run itself, no code required. Customers using it are already seeing the difference.
This isn't the CRM you have to work hard to figure out. It's the one already working before you log in.
Pro Swing Trader Daily Brief
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Good morning. Bitcoin closed Monday at $76,674, down 2.0% on the day, and it's near $76,950 this morning. It's about 1.6% under this week's open of $78,232.
The trigger wasn't crypto-specific. Chip stocks sold off again, and the Nasdaq 100 is now in a correction. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost another $398.6 million on Monday, about $1.04 billion over the last two trading days. Today is Election Day in the US, with JOLTS at 10 a.m. and AMD after the close.
I'm writing at about 5:15 a.m. ET.
Updates to Monday's edition
ETFs. I marked Monday's flow as open. It's −$398.6 million, almost all of it IBIT (TFTC, checked 5:00 a.m. ET). That's one tracker, and I'll flag it if Farside differs.
The House. I wrote 220–215 Republican. investingLive says 218–214, with two vacancies and one independent who caucuses with Republicans. The Senate is 53 Republicans and 45 Democrats, plus two independents who caucus with Democrats (CoinDesk).
Strategy. I said Sunday that I found no purchase. Its Monday 8-K shows 811 BTC bought between Oct 26 and Nov 1. Details below.
Consensus figures. ISM manufacturing came in at 55.5 against the 54.6 I gave. ADP's consensus is now 69K, not 65K, and JOLTS is 7.10M.
Monday: chips down, ISM hot, Apple soft
ISM manufacturing rose to 55.5 from 54.5, against about 54.6 expected. Production was 59.0 (up from 56.7). The prices index eased to 75.2 from 77.9 (Trading Economics).
Wall Street: the S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,541, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.07% to 25,164, and the Dow rose 0.41% to 51,989. The Nasdaq 100 lost 1.39% and is now 10% below its peak, a correction (CoinDesk, investingLive).
Chips took the hit: Intel −8.8%, AMD −7.5%, Micron −5.9%, and Oracle −8.8% after a $10 billion share offering. Nvidia fell 1.3%.
Apple reported revenue of $114.5 billion (up 12%) and earnings of $2.10 per share, both above expectations. But it guided December-quarter gross margin to 45% to 46%, against 47.9% reported, and blamed memory costs. The shares fell about 3% after hours. CoinDesk says about 5% in premarket (investingLive, CoinDesk).
Palantir reported earnings of $0.44 and revenue of about $2.31 billion, up 96%, and raised its full-year outlook to about $8.53 billion. The shares fell about 3% after hours, and Reuters points to a slowdown in US commercial contract growth.
Overnight: Australia's central bank raised rates a quarter point to 4.85% on a 6–3 vote, its fifth hike this year. South Korea's Kospi fell 3.7% and Japan was closed. Europe is lower, with the DAX down about 0.5%. US futures are slightly lower.
Oil and rates: oil fell about 4% on Iran-deal hopes on Monday, then bounced as talks stalled. WTI is near $98 and Brent just above $106 (CoinDesk). The 10-year yield is about 4.91%, and gold is near $3,900.
Binance: the snapshot is done, the money is still moving
Proof of reserves. Binance completed a zero-knowledge snapshot covering BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD and ZEC, and says the assets are "backed 1:1." It published no totals. The full proof is due 40 to 50 hours after the snapshot, and another snapshot is planned Wednesday (The Block, Monday 11:52 a.m. ET).
Withdrawals. Binance says it will restore more networks and assets Tuesday. I found no list of what's still paused.
Outflows. Net outflows over 24 hours fell to about $3.29 billion, from a peak near $7 billion (DeFiLlama, via The Block). BNB is near $696.
The thief. Elliptic counts about 12,000 wallets and more than 40,000 transactions across 11 chains in under four days. About $3.24 billion remains in linked addresses, mostly ETH and the 18,270 BTC, which hasn't moved since the attack. Elliptic expects ETH-to-BTC swaps in small batches and over-the-counter cash-outs over months (Decrypt).
Frozen. About $2.85 billion, or 44%. Arbitrum's Security Council moved about $30 million of exploit-linked ETH and ARB into a holding address without the attacker's key (CoinDesk).
SAFU. Binance's emergency fund holds just over 7,500 BTC, about $580 million, down from 15,000 BTC in February. Binance has pledged to restore it to about $1 billion, with no timeline (CoinDesk).
North Korea denies it. CoinDesk reports Pyongyang rejecting the FBI's attribution to TraderTraitor.
Other security items: Mercado Bitcoin halted withdrawals after about $40 million was drained across 10 chains and says it will cover users' losses (CoinDesk; The Block puts the loss at $46 million). A suspected $106 million loss at an EU entity was flagged by ZachXBT. BTCPay told users to switch off their servers after reports of drained wallets, and it's unclear whether that's linked to Binance (Decrypt).
Election Day
Polls close tonight. I couldn't find the closing times or when results are expected.
Seats now: the House is 218–214 Republican per investingLive (see the update above), and the Senate is 53–47 including independents. Democrats need a net gain of four seats in each chamber.
Expectations: CoinDesk says Democrats are expected to flip the House and the Senate is a tossup. It warns prediction markets "essentially whiffed" on last week's Brazil election. investingLive says a Democratic House is largely priced in.
For markets: FXStreet's view is that a split Congress is the most market-friendly result. investingLive says a Republican sweep could support ETH, and that a Democratic sweep with more geopolitical escalation could extend the bearish trend. That's one outlet's scenario, not a forecast.
Crypto: three super PACs spent about $170 million, with Fairshake alone spending $154 million, about $56 million of it against Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio. A major crypto bill would need Democratic votes to reach 60 in the Senate (CoinDesk).
ETFs: two days, $1 billion out
US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $398.6M on Monday. IBIT lost $405.3M and Fidelity's FBTC took in $6.7M (TFTC). With Friday's −$643.3M, that's about −$1.04 billion in two trading days. October's total was −$515.0M, and November starts at −$398.6M.
I couldn't find Ether ETF numbers for Monday.
Strategy bought again
Strategy's Monday filing shows 811 BTC bought for about $65.5 million, averaging $80,846, between Oct 26 and Nov 1. It now holds 849,327 BTC, bought at an average of $75,451. It funded the buy by selling about 1.18 million MSTR shares through its at-the-market program, about $164 million, and repurchased preferred stock for about $208 million. The CFO steps down Thursday (The Block).
Bitcoin at $76,950 is about 2% above that average cost.
Where Bitcoin stands
Monday's close (7 p.m. ET): $76,674, down 1.99%. Monday's range was $76,553 to $78,762, and the high came on Sunday night.
Since the close: a low of $76,239 (1 a.m. hour) and a high of $77,186. That's briefly under the 200-day average that FXStreet put near $76,400 on Oct 30.
Now: about $76,950. November opened at $77,424, so the month is down 0.6%.
Ether closed Monday at $2,250, down 0.99%, and is near $2,264. SOL is near $92 and XRP $1.25.
Market dashboard
BTC | $76,674 (Monday 7 p.m. ET close) · −1.99% · about $76,950 at 5:00 a.m. ET Tuesday |
ETH | $2,250 (Monday close) · −0.99% · about $2,264 at 5:00 a.m. ET |
Funding rate (OKX, 8h) | BTC +0.0100% · ETH +0.0080% |
Open interest | OKX BTC perps $2.63B (34,120 BTC) |
BTC ETF flow | Monday −$398.6M (TFTC) · Friday −$643.3M · November −$398.6M |
Stablecoins (USDT + USDC) | $250.0B · 7-day −$3.1B |
Whale line | 18,270 stolen BTC unmoved; Strategy bought 811 BTC |
Fear & Greed (alternative.me) | 26 (fear) · Monday 37 |
US 10Y · WTI · Gold | about 4.91% · about $98 · about $3,900 |
Open interest is the total value of futures contracts still open. It's 2.3% higher than Monday morning while the price fell, so traders added positions into the drop. The data doesn't say which side.
Fear & Greed dropped from 37 to 26 overnight.
Today and tomorrow (ET)
Tuesday, 10:00 a.m.: JOLTS job openings, prior 7.08M, expected 7.10M (Trading Economics). After the close: AMD, Super Micro, Arista and Block. Tonight: polls close.
Wednesday: ADP at 8:15 a.m. (expected 69K), the Treasury refunding announcement at 8:30, ISM services at 10:00 (expected 54.8). Binance's next snapshot.
Thursday: the Bank of England, jobless claims, and Strategy's CFO leaves. Friday, 8:30 a.m.: the October jobs report.
Today's takeaway
Bitcoin is trading with the Nasdaq, and the Nasdaq is selling chips. The ETFs are selling too, $1 billion in two days. The line to watch below is $76,553, Monday's low, then the 200-day area near $76,400, which Tuesday morning's low of $76,239 already tested.
Above, it's $77,186, last night's high, then October's close at $77,424. JOLTS is at 10 a.m., and the election results will be coming in overnight.
Yesterday's result: the "break" case triggered and reached all three of its zones. The "range" case was wrong. The one miss was ETH, which stopped 50 cents short of its second zone.
Today in Premium:
Monday's plan, graded. Why the yellow-band rule mattered again.
26 BTC key levels, each with its source, including Strategy's cost basis and this morning's low.
ETH at $2,264, and the cited levels above and below.
A plan for today: JOLTS, AMD tonight, and the election results overnight.
Options and funding check: funding rising while the price falls, open interest up, and Elliptic's read on the stolen coins.
🔒 Scenario C: BTC hourly close below $7█,███ → next zones $7█,███ and $7█,███
Premium readers get all of this below 👇
Monday's plan was written at about 7 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $77,730. A was "higher" (an hourly close above $78,232). B was "range" ($77,424 to $78,154, wrong on a daily close under $76,955 or above $78,762). C was "break" (an hourly close under $77,424). The daily close was at 7 p.m. ET, Tuesday 00:00 UTC.
A · higher: not triggered. No hourly close got above $78,232. The best was $77,797.
C · break: triggered, and reached all three zones. The hour ending at 11 a.m. closed at $77,400, inside the yellow band ($77,347 to $77,501). The next hour closed at $77,370, still in the band. The hour ending at 1 p.m. closed at $77,028, below it, which confirmed the trigger, a few hours after the ISM beat at 10:00. The zones were $77,128, $76,955 and $76,634. The low was $76,553, in the 2 p.m. hour. C's "wrong if" line (a daily close back above $78,232) didn't fire.
B · range: wrong. The daily close of $76,674 was under $76,955, so B's own "wrong if" fired. B was the case I called the default before a data-heavy week.
ETH: the A zones weren't reached. On the break side, the first zone, $2,245, was reached. The second, $2,233, was missed by 50 cents: the low was $2,233.50. The third, $2,218, wasn't reached.
What we got right: C's driver list included a hot ISM and a weak tech tape, and both showed up. The yellow-band rule held up for the third time in a row: two closes inside the band, then a clean break.
What we got wrong: B as the "default." Bitcoin had no reason to stay in a range with ISM, two big tech reports and oil headlines all landing in one day.
What we learned: on days with scheduled data plus big-tech earnings, I'll rank the break and the bounce above the range, and say so in the plan.
26 BTC levels, each with its source.
BTC, above:
$87,249: the Oct 2 high (Coinbase daily candle).
$83,556: October's open (Coinbase).
$82,313: the average cost basis of the spot ETFs (Glassnode, via CoinDesk, Oct 23).
$82,007: the Oct 19 weekly open (Coinbase).
$80,694: the Oct 16 low (Coinbase).
$80,053: the Oct 26 weekly open (Coinbase).
$79,107: the Oct 24 low (Coinbase).
BTC, the middle:
$78,762: the Sunday-night high (Coinbase).
$78,232: this week's open (Coinbase).
$78,177: the low of Thursday's 4 p.m. ET hour, when the hack began (Coinbase).
$78,000: a put spread target Derive flagged (CoinDesk, Oct 16), and a round number.
$77,699: Thursday's 7 p.m. hour low (Coinbase).
$77,424: October's close and November's open (Coinbase).
$77,186: last night's high, 8 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$77,128: the 100-day average (FXStreet, Oct 19; it has moved since).
$76,955: the Friday-night low (Coinbase).
BTC, below:
$76,634: the lowest hourly close of Thursday night (Coinbase).
$76,553: Monday's low, 2 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$76,400: the 200-day average (FXStreet, Oct 30).
$76,239: this morning's low so far, 1 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$76,141: October's low, Oct 30 (Coinbase).
$75,545: a horizontal support. FXStreet says a daily close under it opens $70,000 (FXStreet, Oct 30).
$75,451: Strategy's average purchase price for its 849,327 BTC (Strategy filing, via The Block).
$75,000: a liquidation cluster flagged by Glassnode (Oct 7).
$74,000: the 23.6% retracement FXStreet named as the next stop if the 200-day average broke (FXStreet, Oct 26).
$70,000: FXStreet's path if $75,545 breaks on a daily close (FXStreet, Oct 30).
ETH:
$2,777: the October high (Coinbase).
$2,390 and $2,377: Wednesday's high and Thursday's high (Coinbase).
$2,327: the Oct 26 weekly open (Coinbase).
$2,315: the Sunday-night high (Coinbase).
$2,311: ETH's realized price, the on-chain cost basis (FXStreet, Oct 24).
$2,290: Wednesday's low (Coinbase).
$2,272: this week's open (Coinbase).
$2,266: this morning's high so far (Coinbase).
$2,245: Sunday's low (Coinbase).
$2,237: this morning's low so far (Coinbase).
$2,233: Monday's low (Coinbase).
$2,218: the low of Friday afternoon (Coinbase).
$2,205: a support from FXStreet (Oct 24).
$2,170: October's low (Coinbase).
$1,972 and $1,828: deeper supports (FXStreet, Oct 24).
These are conditional scenarios, not predictions or buy/sell calls. A "break" needs an hourly close, not a wick. A close within about 0.1% of a trigger is a yellow light: check the next hour. I'm writing this at about 5:15 a.m. ET Tuesday, before JOLTS.
Where BTC starts: about $76,950, between this morning's low and last night's high. ETH starts near $2,264.
The drivers, in order of when they land:
Now: the Asian and European chip selloff, and Binance restoring more withdrawals.
10:00 a.m.: JOLTS (7.10M expected).
After 4 p.m.: AMD, Super Micro, Arista and Block, which could move the chip stocks again.
Tonight: polls close, and early results arrive in the evening and overnight. The Asian open will react to them.
Wednesday: ADP, refunding and ISM services. Friday: the jobs report.
A · Higher: BTC makes an hourly close above $77,186.
BTC: $77,424 → $77,699 → $78,232.
ETH: $2,290 → $2,311 → $2,327.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC falls back under $76,553 on an hourly close within a day.
B · Range: BTC stays between $76,553 and $77,109.
BTC: $76,553 to $77,109, with $76,955 and $77,128 around the edges. The top edge is the bottom of A's yellow band.
ETH: $2,237 to $2,290.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC has a daily close (tonight 7 p.m. ET, Wednesday 00:00 UTC) under $76,141 or above $77,699.
C · Break: BTC makes an hourly close under $76,553.
BTC: $76,400 → $76,239 → $76,141.
ETH: $2,237 → $2,233 → $2,218.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC slips under $76,553 but the daily close is back above $77,186.
If it's a near-miss. For C, an hourly close between $76,477 and $76,630 is a yellow light, not a break. For A, $77,109 to $77,263 is the yellow band. Check the next hour either way.
What could drive each one. A: a soft JOLTS, a steady Nasdaq open and a calm Binance restart. C: another leg down in chips, a hot AMD reaction or an election surprise that moves yields. This week I'm ranking A and C above B, per Monday's lesson.
Before the 10:00 a.m. JOLTS, in both directions:
If BTC closes an hour above $77,186 before 10:00, then the next zones are $77,424 and $77,699. A hot JOLTS would turn $77,186 back into a ceiling.
If BTC closes an hour under $76,553 before 10:00, then the next zones are $76,400 and $76,239. A soft JOLTS would need to reclaim $76,955 first.
What I'd skip: the first 15 minutes after 10:00 a.m., and the hour after AMD's report. The results from tonight's elections will matter more on Wednesday than on Tuesday.
DVOL is about 39.8 on Deribit, up from 39.3 on Monday's close and 38.6 on Monday morning. Implied volatility is rising again as the price falls, but it's still under the Thursday peak of 42.0.
Funding (OKX, 8h): BTC +0.0100%, up from +0.0086% on Monday. ETH +0.0080%, up from +0.0049%. Longs are paying more while the price drops, so some traders are still leaning long.
Open interest: OKX BTC perp open interest is 34,120 BTC ($2.63B), up 2.3% from Monday morning's 33,357 BTC. Leverage is rising into the drop, and the data doesn't say which side. If it's longs, that's fuel for a flush.
Options: I found no big expiry this week. The next monthly is Nov 27.
Whales: Elliptic says about $3.24 billion is still in addresses linked to the Binance thief, mostly ETH plus the 18,270 BTC, which hasn't moved. It expects the ETH to turn into BTC in small batches and over-the-counter sales over months (Decrypt). Strategy's 811 BTC purchase shows it is still buying. It paid $80,846 on average for that batch and holds its full stack at $75,451.
Stablecoins: supply is $250.0B, down $3.1B in a week.
What I'm watching
JOLTS at 10:00 a.m., then AMD after the close.
Whether $76,553 and the 200-day area near $76,400 hold.
Whether Monday's ETF outflow is followed by a third day.
Binance restoring more withdrawals, and the full proof (due 40 to 50 hours after the snapshot).
Any move in the 18,270 BTC, and ETH-to-BTC swaps from the thief's wallets.
Tonight's polls and tomorrow's Asian open.
The next scorecard is Wednesday's edition.
— Pro Swing Trader
This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.
Sources: Coinbase Exchange candles – prices, opens, highs and lows · CoinDesk – Bitcoin drops below $77,000 as chip rout deepens ahead of the midterm vote · CoinDesk – Live news: Bitcoin faces fifth weekly loss (Nov 3) · CoinDesk – Binance has spent half its SAFU bitcoin · CoinDesk – Arbitrum's council moved $30 million of Binance hack funds · CoinDesk – The key races to watch for the 2026 election · CoinDesk – Crypto PACs made a big Republican push · The Block – Binance completes latest proof of reserves · The Block – Strategy 8-K, Nov 2 · The Block – Kim Jong Un's sister rejects FBI claims · Decrypt – North Korea laundering Binance hack loot, a new wallet every 25 seconds · investingLive – Dow rises as Nasdaq slides · investingLive – Apple and Palantir beat earnings, why did both stocks fall? · investingLive – RBA lifts cash rate to 4.85% · investingLive – US midterms: what traders need to know · investingLive – US-Iran deal still out of reach · Trading Economics – ISM manufacturing · Trading Economics – US stock market · Trading Economics – US calendar · TFTC – BTC ETF flows, November 2026 · TFTC – BTC ETF flows, October 2026 · FXStreet – Top 3 price predictions (Oct 30) · FXStreet – Bitcoin tests $80K support (Oct 26) · FXStreet – technical levels (Oct 16 to 24) · OKX – funding and open interest · DefiLlama – stablecoins · Deribit – DVOL · alternative.me – Fear & Greed · CoinDesk – bitcoin put spread and options (Oct 16)