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Pro Swing Trader Daily Brief
Monday, November 2, 2026
Good morning. Bitcoin finished the weekend at $78,231, up 1.4% from Friday's close, and it's near $77,730 now, about 0.6% under the new week's open of $78,232.
Binance reopened withdrawals on Sunday, and customers took out billions within hours. The price shrugged it off. This week has the October jobs report on Friday, the midterm elections on Tuesday, and Apple and Palantir tonight.
I'm writing at about 7 a.m. ET, and prices are as of 6:50. There's no corrections section this morning. Three consensus numbers in Sunday's calendar have been updated below, because the sources disagree on them.
Binance: the first day after the reopening
Withdrawals. The phased restart began Sunday at 1 a.m. ET. All 15 first-phase networks were live by 7:36 a.m. Zcash, TON and Sui reopened later, and fiat withdrawals in USD, AED, VND, PHP and IDR came back Monday (Decrypt). At 11:22 a.m. Sunday the status page still showed withdrawals suspended on 531 of 552 listed coins, with Cardano, Chainlink, Hyperliquid, Litecoin and NEAR pending. I couldn't find a later reading (The Block).
The outflow. From 1 to 10:30 a.m. Sunday, Binance processed $4.65 billion of withdrawals against $1.01 billion of deposits, a net outflow of about $3.64 billion (The Block). CoinDesk's live blog cites more than $6 billion of outflows over 24 hours from DefiLlama, a figure that can include internal transfers.
Proof of reserves. Not published yet. The Block says the update, a zero-knowledge report on an Oct 31 snapshot, is due today. CoinDesk says "by Nov. 3."
Frozen funds. Elliptic says it has verified $2.85 billion of the stolen funds as frozen or seized, about 44%, and 94% of that is stablecoins. Nothing has been frozen on bitcoin, XRP Ledger, Solana or NEAR (The Block). Binance says about $3 billion is "immobilized," and nothing has been recovered.
Replaced. Binance says it has replaced about 95% of the stolen crypto and that it, not its users, will absorb the loss.
The FBI list. The alert names 608 ETH addresses, 19 BTC addresses and one SOL address, and no Tron addresses. Elliptic counts the haul at $6.43 billion (The Block).
Where the coins are. The 19 wallets holding 18,270 BTC "haven't moved since Thursday" (CoinDesk, 12:18 a.m. ET). On Sunday the attackers began converting 970,522 SOL into BTC through the Relay bridge. On Tron, about $242 million was laundered in two days through Relay, THORChain, Chainflip and Symbiosis, according to the on-chain analyst SomaXBT, and Chainalysis counts more than $500 million moved through more than 1,000 Tron addresses (The Block, Decrypt).
What we don't know: whether the proof of reserves lands on time, when the remaining coins reopen for withdrawal, and whether the 18,270 BTC will move. I found no arrests or sanctions yet.
One related item: Next Technology Holding, a Nasdaq-listed company with a market cap of about $7.8 million, said its board authorized the sale or pledge of about 5,833 BTC, roughly $449 million. It says none of that is held on Binance, and I found no sale (CoinDesk).
Markets this morning
Stock futures are higher. S&P 500 futures are up about 0.3% and Nasdaq futures up about 0.7% as tech bounces from Friday (investingLive, 3:26 a.m. ET). Trading Economics has them near +0.4%. In Europe the DAX is down 0.2% and the FTSE 0.3%.
Oil fell hard. Brent is near $108.4, down 4.4%, and WTI is near $99.4, down 4.6%, on hopes of a US–Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (investingLive, Trading Economics).
Gold is up 0.7% at $3,904, a bounce after Friday's 3.6% drop. The dollar index is 101.66, down 0.2%, and the 10-year yield is about 4.92%.
Australia's central bank decides tonight (Tuesday in Sydney). Traders price about 87% odds of a quarter-point hike to 4.85% (investingLive).
Friday's closes were the S&P 500 at 7,580 (−1.82%), the Nasdaq at 25,437 (−2.86%) and the Dow at 51,775 (−1.09%). October was the Nasdaq's worst month since March 2025.
Where Bitcoin stands
The weekend: Friday's 8 p.m. ET close was $77,180, and Sunday's 7 p.m. close was $78,231, up 1.4%.
The new week: it opened at $78,232. The high so far is $78,762 (10 p.m. hour) and the low is $77,671 (6 a.m. hour).
Now: about $77,730. November's open was $77,424.
Ether closed Sunday at $2,272, up 0.87%, and opened the week at $2,272. It's near $2,282 after a high of $2,315 overnight. BNB is near $713 (CoinDesk).
ETFs: Friday is still the latest number
US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.3M on Friday, October's biggest outflow. October's total is −$515.0M (TFTC). Spot Ether ETFs lost $155.9M on Friday (The Block, one source).
There are no flows on weekends. Monday's number isn't out until this evening, so I'm calling that part open.
Market dashboard
BTC | $78,231 (Sunday 7 p.m. ET close) · +1.04% · about $77,730 at 6:50 a.m. ET Monday |
ETH | $2,272 (Sunday close) · +0.87% · about $2,282 at 6:50 a.m. ET |
Funding rate (OKX, 8h) | BTC +0.0086% · ETH +0.0049% |
Open interest | OKX BTC perps $2.59B (33,357 BTC) |
BTC ETF flow | Friday −$643.3M (latest) · October −$515.0M · Monday open |
ETH ETF flow | Friday −$155.9M (The Block) |
Stablecoins (USDT + USDC) | $250.6B · 7-day −$3.3B |
Whale line | 18,270 stolen BTC, 19 wallets unmoved since Thursday (CoinDesk) |
Fear & Greed (alternative.me) | 37 (fear) · Sunday 34 |
DXY · US 10Y · Brent · Gold | 101.66 · 4.92% · about $108.4 · $3,904 |
Open interest is the total value of futures contracts still open. It fell 4% from Sunday while the price barely changed, so some positions closed. The data doesn't say which side. For scale, liquidations peaked at $1.57 billion in the 24 hours after the hack (CoinDesk).
Stablecoin supply has fallen $3.3 billion in a week. It's a slow leak.
The week ahead (ET)
Consensus numbers come from investingLive, FXStreet, CoinDesk and Trading Economics. Where they disagree, I give the range.
Monday, Nov 2 - 10:00 a.m.: ISM manufacturing for October, prior 54.5, expected about 54.6 (sources range from 54.5 to 54.7). - 11:15 a.m.: Fed's Goolsbee speaks. 3:00 p.m.: Treasury financing estimates. - After the close: Apple (EPS about $2.01, revenue about $113B to $114B), Palantir (EPS about $0.37, revenue about $2B) and Roku. - Tonight: the RBA decision. Binance's proof of reserves is also due today.
Tuesday, Nov 3 - US midterm elections. The House is 220–215 Republican and the Senate 53–47 Republican. FXStreet writes that Democrats are expected to take the House, that the Senate is a close call, and that a split Congress is the most market-friendly result. I found no poll-close times. - 10:00 a.m.: JOLTS job openings, prior 7.08M, expected 7.11M to 7.13M. - Earnings: Shopify before the open. AMD, Super Micro, Arista and Block after the close.
Wednesday, Nov 4 - 8:15 a.m.: ADP, prior 90K, expected 65K. 8:30 a.m.: the trade balance (expected about −$108B) and the Treasury refunding announcement. 10:00 a.m.: ISM services, prior 54.9, expected 54.8 to 54.9. - Earnings: Uber, Riot, Circle and Hut 8 before the open. Qualcomm and Arm after the close.
Thursday, Nov 5 - 7:00 a.m.: the Bank of England, expected to hike to 4.00% (FXStreet says it's fully priced). - 8:30 a.m.: jobless claims, prior 194K, expected 195K to 197K, and preliminary productivity (expected 2.5%, one source). Fed's Hammack at 8:50 and Barkin at 9:10. - Earnings: Core Scientific before the open. Cloudflare and Airbnb after the close. Strategy's CFO steps down.
Friday, Nov 6 - 8:30 a.m.: the October jobs report. Payrolls prior +29K, expected +63K to +65K. Unemployment 4.2%. Average hourly earnings expected +0.3% on the month (prior 0.1%). - 10:00 a.m.: University of Michigan sentiment, prior 48.0. Fed's Musalem at 9:10 and Bowman at 12:15.
Crypto this week: Binance's proof of reserves (today). FinCEN's comment deadline on the A7 Network proposal (Nov 4). Zcash's NU7 upgrade is expected Nov 5. Token unlocks include ENA on Nov 5 (about $17.9M) and HYPE on Nov 6 (about $16.8M). KITE has a large first cliff this week, about $75M or 27% of its circulating supply, and I couldn't confirm the date (CoinDesk, Tokenomist). The next FOMC is Dec 8–9.
Today's takeaway
Bitcoin finished the weekend higher despite a $3.6 billion exchange outflow. The new week's open at $78,232 is the line to watch above, then Sunday night's high of $78,762. Below, it's October's close at $77,424.
Today's driver is ISM at 10 a.m., then Apple and Palantir after the close. The proof of reserves from Binance could land any time.
The weekend scorecard: the "higher" case triggered Sunday night and reached its first zone, and the break case never came close.
Today in Premium:
The weekend, graded. Sunday's plan against the 7 p.m. ET close.
26 BTC key levels, each with its source, including the new weekly open and last night's high.
ETH's overnight run to $2,315 and the cited levels around it.
A plan for today and the week: ISM, Apple and Palantir, the Binance proof of reserves and Friday's jobs report.
Options and funding check: implied volatility under 39, funding back up, and open interest falling.
🔒 Scenario C: BTC hourly close below $7█,███ → next zones $7█,███ and $7█,███
Premium readers get all of this below 👇
Sunday's plan was written at about 7:30 a.m. ET Sunday with Bitcoin near $77,810. A was "higher" (an hourly close above $78,177). B was "range" ($77,424 to $78,177, wrong on a daily close under $76,955 or above $78,634). C was "break" (an hourly close under $76,955). The daily close was at 7 p.m. ET, Monday 00:00 UTC.
A · higher: triggered, and reached its first zone. The hour ending at 7 p.m. closed at $78,231, inside the yellow band ($78,099 to $78,255). The hour ending at 8 p.m. closed at $78,022, under the band. The hour ending at 9 p.m. closed at $78,289, above it, which confirmed the trigger. The first zone was $78,634, and the high was $78,762 in the 10 p.m. hour. The second zone, $79,107, was $345 short. A's "wrong if" line (a close back under $77,424) didn't fire. The lowest completed close since was $77,858.
B · range: right at the close, wrong in the middle. The daily close of $78,231 was inside B's "wrong if" limits ($76,955 to $78,634), so the scenario wasn't invalidated. But Bitcoin had left the $77,424 to $78,177 range by the close and spent Sunday night above it.
C · break: not triggered. The lowest hourly close after the plan was $77,685, and the low was $77,500.
ETH: the A zones $2,290 and $2,311 were reached, with a high of $2,315. The third, $2,327, was $12 short. The break zones weren't touched, and the low since Sunday morning is $2,245.
The weekend as a whole: Friday's close was $77,180 and Sunday's was $78,231, up 1.4%. The range was $76,955 to $78,762. Saturday's plan called a thin weekend, and Sunday's called a push higher. Both zones were missed by small amounts in the first case and reached in the second.
What we got right: the call for a range-bound weekend, and the 0.1% yellow-band rule. The 7 p.m. close sat inside the band, and the next two hours settled it.
What we got wrong: nothing material in the levels. The one number I'd tighten is B's upper edge, which I set at $78,177 right under the $78,177 trigger for A, so the two overlapped.
What we learned: A and B shouldn't share a boundary. From now on B's range stops at the bottom of A's yellow band.
26 BTC levels, each with its source.
BTC, above:
$87,249: the Oct 2 high (Coinbase daily candle).
$83,556: October's open (Coinbase).
$82,313: the average cost basis of the spot ETFs (Glassnode, via CoinDesk, Oct 23).
$82,007: the Oct 19 weekly open (Coinbase).
$80,694: the Oct 16 low (Coinbase).
$80,053: the Oct 26 weekly open (Coinbase).
$79,255: the Oct 26 low (Coinbase).
$79,107: the Oct 24 low (Coinbase).
BTC, the middle:
$78,762: the high since the new week opened, 10 p.m. ET hour Sunday (Coinbase).
$78,634: Friday's high (Coinbase).
$78,232: this week's open (Coinbase).
$78,177: the low of Thursday's 4 p.m. ET hour, when the hack began (Coinbase).
$78,000: a put spread target Derive flagged (CoinDesk, Oct 16), and a round number.
$77,699: Thursday's 7 p.m. hour low (Coinbase).
$77,671: the low so far this morning, 6 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$77,424: October's close and November's open (Coinbase).
$77,370: Sunday's low (Coinbase).
$77,128: the 100-day average (FXStreet, Oct 19; it has moved since).
BTC, below:
$76,955: the overnight low of Friday night (Coinbase).
$76,634: the lowest hourly close of Thursday night (Coinbase).
$76,400: the 200-day average (FXStreet, Oct 30).
$76,141: October's low, Oct 30 (Coinbase).
$75,545: a horizontal support. FXStreet says a daily close under it opens $70,000 (FXStreet, Oct 30).
$75,000: a liquidation cluster flagged by Glassnode (Oct 7).
$74,000: the 23.6% retracement FXStreet named as the next stop if the 200-day average broke (FXStreet, Oct 26).
$70,000: FXStreet's path if $75,545 breaks on a daily close (FXStreet, Oct 30).
ETH:
$2,777: the October high (Coinbase).
$2,390 and $2,377: Wednesday's high and Thursday's high (Coinbase).
$2,327: the Oct 26 weekly open (Coinbase).
$2,315: the high since the new week opened, overnight (Coinbase).
$2,311: ETH's realized price, the on-chain cost basis (FXStreet, Oct 24).
$2,290: Wednesday's low (Coinbase).
$2,272: this week's open (Coinbase).
$2,245: Sunday's low (Coinbase).
$2,233: the low of the 24 hours to Saturday 8 p.m. (Coinbase).
$2,218: the low of Friday afternoon (Coinbase).
$2,205: a support from FXStreet (Oct 24).
$2,170: October's low (Coinbase).
$1,972 and $1,828: deeper supports (FXStreet, Oct 24).
These are conditional scenarios, not predictions or buy/sell calls. A "break" needs an hourly close, not a wick. A close within about 0.1% of a trigger is a yellow light: check the next hour. I'm writing this at about 7 a.m. ET Monday, before ISM and with the ETF number still open.
Where BTC starts: about $77,730, between the October close and this week's open. ETH starts near $2,282.
The drivers, in order of when they land:
Now: Binance's proof of reserves, which can land at any hour, and the stolen coins.
10:00 a.m.: ISM manufacturing (about 54.6 expected). 11:15 a.m.: Fed's Goolsbee.
After 4 p.m.: Apple and Palantir. Tonight: the RBA.
This evening: Monday's ETF flow, after Friday's $643 million exit.
Tuesday: the midterms. Wednesday: ADP, refunding and ISM services. Friday: the jobs report.
A · Higher: BTC makes an hourly close above $78,232.
BTC: $78,634 → $78,762 → $79,107.
ETH: $2,311 → $2,327 → $2,377.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC falls back under $77,424 on an hourly close within a day.
B · Range: BTC stays between $77,424 and $78,154.
BTC: $77,424 to $78,154, with $77,699 and $78,000 inside. A's yellow band starts at the top edge, so the two don't overlap.
ETH: $2,265 to $2,311.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC has a daily close (tonight 7 p.m. ET, Tuesday 00:00 UTC) under $76,955 or above $78,762.
C · Break: BTC makes an hourly close under $77,424.
BTC: $77,128 → $76,955 → $76,634.
ETH: $2,245 → $2,233 → $2,218.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC slips under $77,424 but the daily close is back above $78,232.
If it's a near-miss. For C, an hourly close between $77,347 and $77,501 is a yellow light, not a break. For A, $78,154 to $78,310 is the yellow band. Check the next hour either way.
What could drive each one. A: a soft ISM, strong Apple and Palantir results, a clean proof of reserves. C: a hot ISM that revives December hike talk, a weak open for tech, or the 18,270 BTC moving. B is the default before a data-heavy week.
Before the 10:00 a.m. ISM, in both directions:
If BTC closes an hour above $78,232 before 10:00, then the next zones are $78,634 and $78,762. A hot ISM would turn $78,232 back into a ceiling.
If BTC closes an hour under $77,424 before 10:00, then the next zones are $77,128 and $76,955. A soft ISM would need to reclaim $77,699 first.
What I'd skip: the first 15 minutes after 10:00 a.m., and the hour after any Binance announcement. The 4 p.m. close and Apple's report matter more.
DVOL is about 38.6 on Deribit, down from 40.3 on Sunday's close and 42.0 at the Thursday peak. It's the lowest since the hack began, and implied volatility has come most of the way back to the 36.1 of last Thursday morning.
Funding (OKX, 8h): BTC +0.0086%, up from +0.0068% on Sunday. ETH +0.0049%, back to positive from about zero. Longs are paying a little more again.
Open interest: OKX BTC perp open interest is 33,357 BTC ($2.59B), down 4.0% from Sunday's 34,752 BTC. Some of the leverage that rebuilt last week has gone.
Options: I found no big expiry this week. The next monthly is Nov 27.
Whales: the 19 wallets holding 18,270 BTC hadn't moved as of 12:18 a.m. ET. The attackers are converting other assets: 970,522 SOL into BTC through Relay, and about $242 million on Tron through bridges and swaps (CoinDesk, The Block). That means more bitcoin could end up in their wallets rather than being sold, but nothing is confirmed. Elliptic notes there are no freezes on native bitcoin.
Stablecoins: supply is $250.6B, down $3.3B in a week.
What I'm watching
ISM at 10:00 a.m., then Apple and Palantir after the close.
This week's open at $78,232, and whether October's close at $77,424 holds.
Binance's proof of reserves, the remaining coins on the status page, and the 18,270 BTC.
Monday's ETF flow tonight: a rebound, or a second outflow?
ETH, if it holds above $2,272.
Tuesday's midterms, and Friday's jobs report against +63K to +65K.
The next scorecard is Tuesday's edition.
— Pro Swing Trader
This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.
Sources: Coinbase Exchange candles – prices, opens, highs and lows · The Block – Binance sees $3.64 billion in net outflows after reopening withdrawals · The Block – North Korean hackers launder $242 million of Binance loot via Tron · The Block – Spot bitcoin ETFs after the Binance hack · Decrypt – FBI blames North Korea for $6B Binance hack as exchange reopens withdrawals · CoinDesk – Binance opens crypto withdrawals in phases (Nov 1) · CoinDesk – Live updates: Binance records $6 billion outflows (Nov 2) · CoinDesk – Bitcoin eases to $77,900 as Binance customers pull $3.6 billion · CoinDesk – Strangers are begging the Binance hacker for bitcoin · CoinDesk – Crypto Week Ahead (Nov 2) · CoinDesk – Next Technology Holding may sell $450 million bitcoin · investingLive – Week ahead: elections, rate decisions and jobs · investingLive – Earnings next week · investingLive – RBA market playbook · investingLive – European stock market open · FXStreet – Week ahead: nonfarm payrolls and US midterm elections · Trading Economics – Brent crude · Trading Economics – US stock market · Trading Economics – US calendar · Tokenomist – weekly unlock digest, Nov 2–8 · TFTC – BTC ETF flows, October 2026 · FXStreet – Top 3 price predictions (Oct 30) · FXStreet – Bitcoin tests $80K support (Oct 26) · FXStreet – technical levels (Oct 16 to 24) · OKX – funding and open interest · DefiLlama – stablecoins · Deribit – DVOL · alternative.me – Fear & Greed · CoinDesk – bitcoin put spread and options (Oct 16)