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Pro Swing Trader Daily Brief
Saturday, October 31, 2026
Good morning. Friday's edition went out late, at about 3:15 p.m. ET, so this one fills in what it couldn't: Friday's close, Friday's ETF number and where the Binance hack stands. It also corrects a number I got wrong.
Bitcoin tested $76,141 on Friday and held. It closed the day at $77,180 and is near $77,450 this morning. Under the surface, US spot ETFs took out $643.3 million on Friday, October's biggest daily outflow.
Corrections to Friday's edition
Core PCE. I wrote that core PCE rose 0.5% on the month against 0.3% expected. That was wrong, and it came from a single wire headline. Core PCE rose 0.3% on the month, as expected, and 3.1% on the year, up from 3.0%. The headline rate was +0.5% on the month and 3.6% on the year (CNBC, Trading Economics). Thursday's inflation data wasn't hot.
Employment Cost Index. I couldn't find the consensus. It was +0.8%, and the result was +0.8%, so it was in line (Trading Economics).
October's ETF flow. Friday's edition said +$128.3M. That was right through Thursday. Friday's outflow turned it into −$515.0M (TFTC).
Intel. I wrote "as much as 29%." It closed down 28.6% (Trading Economics).
The hack's size. I wrote "about $6.3 billion," which is CoinDesk's figure. The Block says "more than $6 billion," and Chainalysis put it near $5.9 billion at the time of the theft.
ETFs: October flipped
US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.3M on Friday: IBIT −$233.7M, Fidelity's FBTC −$201.0M and Ark's ARKB −$129.5M (TFTC). It's the biggest outflow of the month, just over the −$635.5M of Oct 22.
The week: about −$202.6M. Monday to Thursday were +$110.3M, +$176.0M, +$137.3M and +$17.1M, then Friday erased it all.
October: −$515.0M across 22 trading days, with 13 inflow days and 9 outflow days.
That's one tracker. TFTC says it checked for revisions at 6 a.m. ET today, and I couldn't find a second source this morning. I'll flag it if Farside differs.
Binance: a suspect, and where the coins are
The hack was Thursday, and the facts are still moving. What's firm now:
Who. TRM Labs linked it "with high confidence" to TraderTraitor, a North Korean state-sponsored unit (CoinDesk). Chainalysis, Elliptic and TRM all tie it to North Korean groups, though Elliptic says one overlap with last month's Bitget hack is small and doesn't prove the same attackers (The Block). The FBI blamed TraderTraitor for the $1.5B Bybit theft. Binance hasn't named the attacker, and I found no government attribution yet.
The bitcoin. 18,270 BTC, about $1.4 billion, left a Binance hot wallet around 4:20 p.m. ET Thursday. It moved through 11 transactions to one new address, then split across 19. Seventeen hold exactly 1,000 BTC. None had been spent as of 2 a.m. ET Friday (CoinDesk). That's more than Tesla's 11,509 BTC.
The rest. The attacker turned $325 million of stablecoins into $285 million of ETH in about 20 minutes. Elliptic says $59.9 million of USDT went into Aave as collateral for a 19,762 ETH loan that was close to liquidation (The Block).
Frozen. About $3 billion of the roughly $6.3 billion, mostly through Tether and Circle freezing USDT and USDC. Native bitcoin and ether have no issuer to freeze them, and CoinDesk notes a freeze "does not automatically return" funds to victims.
Binance. It says it set aside $6.34 billion to cover all losses. Withdrawals are still suspended and deposits are open. The target is "by Sunday," and an updated proof-of-reserves is due Monday, Nov 2 (CoinDesk).
Washington. President Trump said the administration is "looking into" the hack. CFTC Chair Michael Selig called them "unregulated offshore exchanges," and Sen. Lummis urged Congress to act (The Block). I found no enforcement action.
Wall Street: the Nasdaq's worst month since March 2025
Friday's closes, from investingLive's end-of-day figures:
S&P 500: 7,580.07, down 1.82%.
Nasdaq Composite: 25,437.00, down 2.86%.
Dow: 51,775.17, down 1.09%.
For October, the Nasdaq fell 5.30%, its worst month since March 2025. The Nasdaq 100 fell 6.65%, the S&P 500 0.93%, and the Dow rose 1.70% (investingLive).
Intel closed down 28.6% after weak guidance. It beat on earnings per share ($0.52 against $0.41 expected) and just missed on revenue ($16.50B against $16.60B). It's down 45.2% for October.
Nvidia fell 4.22% and AMD 11% on AI-spending worries (Trading Economics).
Amazon closed down 1.4% at $240.35 and Alphabet 1.35%.
Coinbase fell 10.83% to $143.21 and Strategy fell 7.86% to $130.49 (CoinDesk).
On rates, four Fed officials spoke. St. Louis Fed's Musalem said rates "would need to rise again soon." Dallas Fed's Logan called for at least two more quarter-point hikes, then a pause. Richmond Fed's Barkin favored a gradual approach (investingLive). The 10-year yield ended at 4.93% and the 2-year at 4.59%.
Gold fell 3.64% to $3,874. Brent rose 2.4% to about $113.4 (Trading Economics). The dollar index was 101.88.
Where Bitcoin stands
Friday's close (8 p.m. ET): $77,180, down 0.77%.
Friday's range: $76,141 (2 p.m. ET hour) to $78,635 (2 a.m. hour).
Overnight: $76,955 to $77,538 (Coinbase). Bitcoin is near $77,450 now.
October: the month opened at $83,556, so Bitcoin is about 7.3% under it. October closes tonight at 8 p.m. ET.
Ether closed Friday at $2,241, down 0.32%, and is near $2,244. Its Thursday-night low of $2,170 held.
Strategy and Coinbase
Strategy posted a record Q3 net income of $19.53 billion, mostly a $20.91 billion bitcoin gain. It holds 848,517 BTC as of Oct 25, and I found no purchase. CFO Andrew Kang is resigning for personal reasons, effective Nov 5, and Reza Virasteh becomes CFO on Jan 1 (CoinDesk, The Block).
Coinbase reported net income of $719 million, including a $715 million crypto gain. Revenue was $1.22 billion, down 35% from a year ago. Spot volume was $135 billion, down 8% on the quarter (The Block).
Market dashboard
BTC | $77,180 (Friday 8 p.m. ET close) · −0.77% · about $77,450 at 8:15 a.m. ET Saturday |
ETH | $2,241 (Friday close) · −0.32% · about $2,244 at 8:15 a.m. ET |
Funding rate (OKX, 8h) | BTC +0.0100% · ETH −0.0086% |
Open interest | OKX BTC perps $2.66B (34,313 BTC) |
BTC ETF flow | Friday −$643.3M (TFTC) · October −$515.0M |
Stablecoins (USDT + USDC) | $251.6B · 7-day −$2.7B |
Whale line | 18,270 stolen BTC, unspent in 19 wallets (CoinDesk, Friday 2 a.m. ET) |
Fear & Greed (alternative.me) | 30 (fear) · Friday 30 |
S&P 500 · Nasdaq (Friday) | 7,580 (−1.82%) · 25,437 (−2.86%) |
DXY · US 10Y · Brent · Gold | 101.88 · 4.93% · about $113.4 · $3,874 (−3.64%) |
Open interest is the total value of futures contracts still open. It's near Friday afternoon's level after the $1.57 billion liquidation, so the leverage that was wiped out has largely come back. The data doesn't say whether it's long or short.
Ether's funding rate is negative this morning. It means traders holding short ether bets are paying the longs.
The weekend and the week ahead (ET)
Saturday, 8 p.m.: October's close. The month opened at $83,556.
Sunday, Nov 1: US clocks go back one hour at 2 a.m. Binance's target for restarting withdrawals is Sunday. The new week's open (Monday 00:00 UTC) is at 7 p.m. ET.
Monday, Nov 2: Binance's updated proof-of-reserves is due. The first STRC payment under Strategy's new daily-accrual plan is due. Monday's edition has the full week-ahead calendar.
Tuesday, Nov 3: US midterm elections.
Thursday, Nov 5: Strategy's CFO steps down.
Dec 8–9: the next FOMC meeting.
Today's takeaway
Price held the line that mattered. The ETF money didn't hold: $643 million left on a day Bitcoin closed down less than 1%, and October has flipped from green to red.
Above, the first line is $77,699, Thursday's 7 p.m. low, which Bitcoin missed by $161 overnight. Below, $76,141 is Friday's low, with the 200-day average just above it near $76,400. Tonight's October close is the next marker.
Yesterday's result: the "bounce" case triggered at the 7 p.m. hour and stopped $161 short of its first zone. The "break" case never triggered. My own scorecard also contained the PCE error above, and I fixed it.
Today in Premium:
Friday's plan, graded, written at 3:15 p.m. ET with the close still ahead.
27 BTC key levels, each with its source, including last night's range.
ETH under its on-chain cost basis, and which cited levels sit above and below.
A weekend plan: tonight's October close, the Sunday restart and Monday's proof-of-reserves.
Options and funding check: ether funding turning negative, implied volatility off its high, and the stolen coins as a whale watch.
🔒 Scenario C: BTC hourly close below $7█,███ → next zones $7█,███ and $7█,███
Premium readers get all of this below 👇
Friday's plan was written at 3:15 p.m. ET with Bitcoin near $76,430. A was "bounce" (an hourly close above $77,128). B was "chop" ($76,141 to $77,128, wrong on a daily close under $75,545 or above $78,177). C was "break" (an hourly close under $76,141).
A · bounce: triggered, then stalled. The 7 p.m. ET hour closed at $77,180 and the 8 p.m. hour at $77,390, both above $77,128. The first zone was $77,699. The high since was $77,538, $161 short. A's "wrong if" line (an hourly close back under $76,141) didn't fire. The lowest hourly close since was $76,538.
B · chop: mixed. Bitcoin stayed inside the range for about four hours after 3:15 p.m., then moved above it. B's own "wrong if" test is the Saturday 8 p.m. daily close, so it's still open.
C · break: not triggered. The lowest hourly close was $76,538, and the lowest low was $76,164 in the 3 p.m. hour, inside the $76,065 to $76,217 yellow-light band for lows. A close would have been the trigger, so it's a pass.
ETH: the A zones $2,259 and $2,311 weren't reached. The high since 3:15 p.m. was $2,249 and the low $2,218. The break zones weren't touched.
What we got wrong: the scorecard I wrote for Thursday's plan said core PCE was hotter than expected (+0.5% against +0.3%). It wasn't: core PCE was +0.3%, in line, so the "hot PCE" condition in Thursday's break case wasn't met at all. That strengthens the point that the hack caused the break, but it was my error, and I took the number from a single headline instead of a second source.
What we learned: a number that changes a conclusion needs two sources before it goes in the scorecard. I'm adding that to the checklist.
27 BTC levels, each with its source.
BTC, above:
$86,996: the Oct 5 high (Coinbase daily candle).
$85,000: a horizontal barrier in FXStreet's technical note (AI-assisted, Oct 16).
$84,856: the Oct 21 high (Coinbase).
$83,556: October's open (Coinbase).
$82,313: the average cost basis of the spot ETFs (Glassnode, via CoinDesk, Oct 23).
$82,007: the Oct 19 weekly open (Coinbase).
$81,890: Thursday's high, noon ET hour (Coinbase).
$81,715: Wednesday's high (Coinbase).
$80,694: the Oct 16 low (Coinbase).
$80,053: this week's open (Coinbase).
$79,586: Wednesday's low, 10 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$79,255: Monday's low (Coinbase).
$79,107: the Oct 24 low (Coinbase).
BTC, the middle:
$78,634: Friday's high, 2 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$78,177: the low of Thursday's 4 p.m. hour, when the hack began (Coinbase).
$78,000: the max pain price for the Oct 30 options expiry (CryptoTicker, Oct 29), and a put spread target Derive flagged (CoinDesk, Oct 16).
$77,699: Thursday's 7 p.m. hour low (Coinbase).
$77,538: this morning's high so far, 7 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$77,128: the 100-day average (FXStreet, Oct 19; it has moved since).
BTC, below:
$76,955: last night's low, midnight ET hour (Coinbase).
$76,634: the lowest hourly close of Thursday night (Coinbase).
$76,400: the 200-day average (FXStreet, Oct 30).
$76,141: Friday's low, 2 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$75,545: a horizontal support. FXStreet says a daily close under it opens $70,000 (FXStreet, Oct 30).
$75,000: a liquidation cluster flagged by Glassnode (Oct 7).
$74,000: the 23.6% retracement FXStreet named as the next stop if the 200-day average broke (FXStreet, Oct 26).
$70,000: FXStreet's path if $75,545 breaks on a daily close (FXStreet, Oct 30).
ETH:
$2,390 and $2,377: Wednesday's high and Thursday's high (Coinbase).
$2,327: this week's open (Coinbase).
$2,311: ETH's realized price, the on-chain cost basis. ETH is below it (FXStreet, Oct 24).
$2,290: Wednesday's low (Coinbase).
$2,259: Friday's high, 11 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$2,218: the low since Friday 3 p.m. (Coinbase).
$2,205: a support from FXStreet (Oct 24). Friday's low, $2,204, touched it (Coinbase).
$2,191 and $2,170: the lowest hourly close and the low, both Thursday's 9 p.m. hour (Coinbase).
$1,972 and $1,828: deeper supports (FXStreet, Oct 24).
These are conditional scenarios, not predictions or buy/sell calls. A "break" needs an hourly close, not a wick. A close within about 0.1% of a trigger is a yellow light: check the next hour. I'm writing this at about 8:15 a.m. ET Saturday. A weekend close without ETF data carries little weight.
Where BTC starts: about $77,450, between $77,128 and $77,699. ETH starts near $2,244.
The drivers, in order of when they land:
Today: thin weekend liquidity, and any Binance or hacker news. A move out of the 19 wallets holding the stolen bitcoin would be news.
Saturday, 8 p.m.: October's close. The month opened at $83,556.
Sunday: Binance's target for restarting withdrawals, the 2 a.m. clock change, and the new week's open at 7 p.m. ET.
Monday: proof-of-reserves from Binance, the ETF flow after Friday's $643 million exit, and the US open (Nasdaq after its worst month since March 2025).
Tuesday: the midterm elections.
A · Push higher: BTC makes an hourly close above $77,699.
BTC: $78,177 → $78,634 → $79,107.
ETH: $2,259 → $2,311 → $2,327.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC falls back under $76,955 on an hourly close within a day.
B · Range: BTC stays between $76,955 and $77,699.
BTC: $76,955 to $77,699, with $77,128 inside.
ETH: $2,218 to $2,259.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC has a daily close (Saturday 8 p.m. ET) under $76,141 or above $78,177.
C · Break: BTC makes an hourly close under $76,141.
BTC: $75,545 → $75,000 → $74,000. A daily close under $75,545 opens $70,000, per FXStreet.
ETH: $2,170 → $1,972.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC slips under $76,141 but the daily close is back above $77,128.
If it's a near-miss. For C, an hourly close between $76,065 and $76,217 is a yellow light, not a break. For A, $77,622 to $77,777 is the yellow band. Check the next hour either way.
What could drive each one. A: a quiet Binance restart and a firm Sunday week open. C: stolen coins moving to exchanges, the restart slipping, or a second ETF outflow on Monday. B is what's left, and on a thin weekend it's the most likely.
Before the October close, in both directions:
If BTC closes an hour above $77,699 before 8 p.m., then the next zones are $78,177 and $78,634. October would close about 7% under its open.
If BTC closes an hour under $76,141 before 8 p.m., then the next zones are $75,545 and $75,000, and October would close about 9% down.
What I'd skip: the hour after any Binance announcement, and the first hour after the Sunday week open.
DVOL is about 40.5 on Deribit, down from 42.0 on Thursday's close and 40.6 on Friday's. It's still well above the 36.1 of Thursday morning. Implied volatility is easing, but options traders are still paying more than they were before the hack.
Funding (OKX, 8h): BTC +0.0100%, unchanged. ETH −0.0086%. Negative funding means short sellers are paying the longs, so ether shorts are crowded enough to pay for it.
Open interest: OKX BTC perp open interest is 34,313 BTC ($2.66B), down 1.5% from Friday afternoon's 34,841 BTC and 10.7% above Wednesday's 30,998. Leverage rebuilt after the liquidation, and the data doesn't say which side.
The expiry: Friday's Deribit expiry had about $10.86 billion of bitcoin options and $783 million of ether options set for 8:00 UTC (CoinDesk, Oct 29). I couldn't find the settlement report, so I don't know the settled price. Bitcoin traded near $78,000 at 4 a.m. ET, on the max pain price.
Whales: the stolen 18,270 BTC is the whale watch. It sat in 19 addresses, 17 with exactly 1,000 BTC each, and hadn't been spent as of 2 a.m. ET Friday (CoinDesk). TRM said the attackers staged transfers across nine other chains. A move to an exchange would be a potential seller. A move into a bridge or mixer is a different signal. Nothing else confirmed.
Stablecoins: supply is $251.6B, down $2.7B in a week, with Tether and Circle freezing coins.
What I'm watching
Tonight's October close against the $83,556 open.
Whether $76,141 holds, and whether $77,699 gets reclaimed.
Binance: the Sunday restart target, Monday's proof-of-reserves and the frozen funds.
Any movement in the 19 wallets holding the stolen bitcoin.
Monday's ETF flow, after a $643 million outflow.
Ether funding and whether the negative reading lasts.
Monday's edition has the full week-ahead calendar.
— Pro Swing Trader
This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.
Sources: Coinbase Exchange candles – prices, opens, highs and lows · TFTC – BTC ETF flows, October 2026 · CNBC – PCE inflation report, September 2026 · Trading Economics – Core PCE · Trading Economics – US stock market · Trading Economics – Employment Cost Index · CoinDesk – Bitcoin stolen from Binance tops Tesla's holdings (Oct 31) · CoinDesk – The $6.3 billion Binance hack paradox (Oct 31) · CoinDesk – Binance uncovers wider breach (Oct 30) · CoinDesk – Experts divided over Binance hack asset freezes (Oct 30) · CoinDesk – Strategy CFO resigns (Oct 30) · The Block – Binance hack, largest crypto hack, North Korea · The Block – Trump looking into Binance hack · The Block – Coinbase Q3 net income · The Block – Strategy Q3 · investingLive – Americas FX news wrap, Oct 30 · investingLive – Nasdaq worst month since March 2025 · investingLive – Morning Kickstart, Oct 30 · CoinDesk – Daybook, Oct 29 (options expiry) · CryptoTicker – Oct 30 options expiry · FXStreet – Top 3 price predictions (Oct 30) · FXStreet – Bitcoin tests $80K support (Oct 26) · FXStreet – technical levels (Oct 16 to 24) · OKX – funding and open interest · DefiLlama – stablecoins · Deribit – DVOL · alternative.me – Fear & Greed · CoinDesk – bitcoin put spread and options (Oct 16)