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Pro Swing Trader Daily Brief
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Good morning. Tuesday's inflation report came in hotter than anyone wanted, and the crypto market read it the way it reads most things lately: as a reason to sell. Bitcoin dropped under $73,000 for the first time since August, closed the day down about 2%, and has spent the night doing very little.
Ether fell harder. The ETFs added more outflows. The stock market, meanwhile, is set to open higher.
And the bond market is closed today, so there's less to react to and fewer people to react to it.
I'm writing at about 6:45 a.m. ET, with US stock futures pointing up.
Updates to Tuesday's edition
CPI. The consensus I gave was right (0.3% headline, 0.2% core), and so was the warning that the BLS would publish no year-on-year numbers. Both are covered below.
Waller. Tuesday I flagged his remarks as a paraphrase. CNBC's write-up of the speech confirms it: he said a half-point hike should be considered in December if core inflation came in at 0.3% or higher.
ETFs. Monday's flow is now in the per-fund table, with IBIT included, and it was an outflow. The Decrypt figure I held back on Tuesday was right.
Veterans Day. Confirmed: stocks are open, the bond market is closed.
Binance mining pool. I still can't confirm that the shutdown finished or that withdrawals reopened.
MSCI. My notes had a decision on digital-asset treasury companies landing around today. I found nothing yet.
The CPI surprise
Headline inflation rose 0.4% in October against the 0.3% economists expected, and core (which strips out food and energy) rose 0.3% against 0.2%. Gasoline rose 1.0% and food 0.5%. The BLS didn't publish year-on-year numbers, because last year's government shutdown left a hole in the October 2025 data.
Yields jumped on the news, with the 2-year moving more than the 10-year. The dollar rose.
The Fed speakers piled on. Waller said hiking only a quarter point could put the Fed's credibility at risk if inflation stays hot. Logan said she sees two more quarter-point hikes. Fed funds futures now put a quarter-point December hike at about 86% and a half-point at about 14% (CME FedWatch, quoted by CoinDesk). Swaps pricing has a second hike in January at about 50/50 (FXStreet).
Stocks sold off a bit: the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Nasdaq 0.7% and the Dow 0.3%. Tech was the weakest sector.
Nvidia is the market's problem child
Nvidia dropped more than 6% in the afternoon after a 4.3% fall on Monday, and the stock has now given back all of its 2026 gains (Decrypt). The board is investigating CEO Jensen Huang, a shareholder lawsuit has been filed, and House Foreign Affairs chair Brian Mast has asked Huang to answer by today or face a subpoena. Earnings are next Tuesday, Nov 17.
The mood flipped overnight. CoreWeave beat estimates and raised its outlook, and the AI-infrastructure names are rallying in premarket: CoreWeave is up about 15%. Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.9% and S&P futures 0.9%.
Asia followed. The Kospi gained 2.6%, with the Kosdaq up more than 5%, and the Nikkei rose 1.3%. Europe is up about 0.7%.
Where Bitcoin stands
Bitcoin broke below last week's open on CPI, bounced, and has been stuck in a narrow band since the Tuesday close. That's about 1.1% under the week's open. Ether is about 3.2% under its own.
The pattern of the last three days is telling: stocks rallied Monday and Bitcoin didn't follow, stocks slipped Tuesday and Bitcoin fell harder, and stocks are set to rally again today. Bitcoin isn't moving with the stock market in either direction. It's trading on its own flows.
Market dashboard
BTC | $73,698 (Tuesday 7 p.m. ET close) · −2.07% · about $73,950 at 6:30 a.m. ET |
BTC Tuesday range | low $72,643 (11 a.m. hour) · high $75,340 (in the first hour, Monday 7 p.m. ET) |
ETH | $2,051 (Tuesday close) · −3.83% · about $2,056 |
Funding rate (OKX, 8h) | BTC +0.0094% · ETH +0.0035% (longs still paying) |
Liquidations (24h, CoinGlass) | $716M (CoinGlass site ticker, 6:34 a.m. ET) · long/short split: sources conflict, left out |
Open interest | OKX BTC perps $2.66B (35,944 BTC) · about +1.8% since Tuesday 4:20 a.m. |
BTC ETF flow | Tuesday −$95.0M · Monday −$201.1M · this week −$296.1M (TFTC) |
ETH ETF flow | — (per-fund source not available this morning) |
Stablecoins (USDT + USDC) | $245.8B · 7-day −$3.25B |
Whale line | MARA sold 13,597 BTC at about $81,039 · no new Strategy purchase |
Fear & Greed (alternative.me) | 29 (fear) · Tuesday 32 |
DXY · US 10Y · Brent · Gold | about 102.5 · about 5.0% (Tuesday close; bond market closed today) · about $92.8 · about $4,050 (spot) |
Open interest is the total value of futures contracts still open. It rose while the price fell, so new positions were opened into the drop. The data doesn't say which side.
What the dashboard says. Funding is still positive after a 2% drop, which means longs are still paying to hold. That's not what a washed-out market looks like. Fear & Greed went back to fear, and the ETFs are still the main seller.
ETFs: the quiet sellers
Both days are in now, and both were outflows. BlackRock's IBIT was the main seller on both (TFTC's per-fund table, last checked at 5:00 a.m. ET). Fidelity's FBTC joined in on Tuesday, while the MSBT fund took in money both days.
That's IBIT's eighth straight day of outflows (Cointelegraph, citing Farside), and November's total is now about $1.6B in six outflow days out of seven.
One flow day isn't a trend, but eight in a row from the biggest fund is a pattern. It's the clearest demand signal in the market right now, and it points the wrong way.
I couldn't find Ether ETF flows for Monday or Tuesday.
Altcoins and the whole market
The crypto market is worth about $2.46T, down about 0.7% on the day, and Bitcoin's share of it is 60.5% (CoinMarketCap, undated snapshot at 6:30 a.m. ET). The ETH/BTC ratio is about 0.0278, down from 0.0283 on Monday.
Ether is the weak spot. It broke under Sunday's and Monday's lows, and analysts are pointing at $2,000 as the support to watch (21Shares via The Block). The treasury companies aren't helping: Bitmine reported a $6.3B net loss for its fiscal year on the 44% fall in ether, and still holds about 6.07M ETH (The Block, Cointelegraph).
The rest of the big coins are down with it: SOL near $84, XRP near $1.05, HYPE near $72.5 and BNB near $682 (CoinDesk, Decrypt tickers, undated). Forward Industries still added to its SOL treasury Tuesday, to 8.7M SOL, as the token touched a nearly three-month low.
Crypto newsstand
MARA's letter. The miner sold 40% of what it held at the end of September, and used $750M of the proceeds to repay bitcoin-backed loans. It also authorized up to $500M of buybacks. Lookonchain counts 14 public companies that have sold 108,247 BTC this year (CoinDesk).
Hacks. Initia confirmed its second exploit in three weeks, with $3.27M taken using compromised cloud credentials (Cointelegraph). Across Protocol restored its site after a domain hijack (The Block).
Banks and stablecoins. Goldman Sachs, Citi and other banks committed about $270M to a joint stablecoin venture (Decrypt, CoinDesk).
Regulation. Coinbase, Kalshi and Kraken's parent are backing the CFTC in its fight over stock perpetual futures. A New York judge denied prediction-market firm Novig's injunction bid (The Block, CoinDesk).
Oil and gold
Oil rebounded from Monday's drop. Qatar said diplomacy with Iran needs "at least two weeks" and that significant differences remain, so hopes of an imminent deal faded (investingLive). WTI is back near $86.6.
Gold dipped after CPI and Waller's remarks (investingLive) and is holding near $4,050 (FXStreet). Like Bitcoin, it fell on the higher-yield news.
Today and the rest of the week (ET)
Today: nothing on the US data calendar and no Fed speakers I could find. The bond market is closed (SIFMA), so Treasury trading will be thin. Stocks are open. Mast's deadline for Huang is today.
Thursday: jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. (consensus not found), Hammack (9:00), Barr (10:00), Goolsbee (11:30), Daly (1:10 p.m.), a 30-year auction at 1:00 p.m. and Williams at 6:30 p.m.
Friday: October PPI at 8:30 a.m. (consensus not found), Bowman (10:50) and Daly (noon).
Next week: CFTC positioning and the Q3 13F deadline on Monday Nov 16, retail sales and Nvidia's earnings on Tuesday Nov 17, FOMC minutes on Wednesday Nov 18 at 2:00 p.m. The next CPI is Dec 10, and the Fed meets Dec 8–9.
Today's takeaway
Bitcoin and the stock market aren't moving together right now. When stocks rise, the ETFs still sell, and when stocks fall, Bitcoin falls further.
Today the calendar is empty and a big market is on holiday, so I'm watching whether the price can stay above the line it lost on CPI.
Yesterday's result: the "break" case from Tuesday's plan triggered in the CPI hour and reached all four of its BTC zones.
Today in Premium:
Tuesday's plan, graded. The break, the first hour that failed, and why the range case was too loose.
30 BTC key levels, each with its source, redrawn after the drop.
Order book walls: the biggest bid, a 71 BTC round ask, and what happened to yesterday's walls.
Liquidation clusters: the shorts above are now the bigger pool nearby.
A plan for a quiet, bond-less Wednesday, in both directions, with a line for after the 7 p.m. close.
Whales & institutions: ETF flows by fund, MARA's letter, and who is underwater.
Options and funding check.
🔒 Scenario C: BTC hourly close below $7█,███ → next zones $7█,███ and $7█,███
Premium readers get all of this below 👇
Tuesday's plan was written at about 4:35 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $74,290. A was "higher" (an hourly close above $74,756). B was "range" ($74,066 to $74,756). C was "break" (an hourly close under $74,066). The daily close was at 7 p.m. ET, Wednesday 00:00 UTC. The ETF half of the weekend scorecard is now closed: Monday's flow was an outflow, with IBIT included, which fits the weakness.
C · break: triggered in the CPI hour, reached four of four zones. The 5 a.m. hour closed at $74,131, inside the yellow band ($73,992 to $74,140), so it didn't count. The 8 a.m. hour, which held the CPI release, closed at $73,647, clear of the band. That was the trigger. The 9 a.m. hour then closed back above the line at $74,314, so the break needed a second hour. The 10 a.m. hour closed at $73,131 and the move ran. Zones: $74,000, $73,636 and $73,477 were all reached, and $73,000 was too, with a low of $72,643 in the 11 a.m. hour. The extension, $72,500, was missed by $143. C's "wrong if" line (a daily close back above $74,756) did not fire: the close was $73,698. Neither of the pre-CPI lines fired either: no hour closed beyond either level before 8:30, so the break came in the CPI hour itself.
A · higher: not triggered. The highest hourly close was $74,740, in the 2 a.m. hour, inside the yellow band ($74,681 to $74,831), so it never counted. The 10 a.m. hour spiked to $74,753, $3 short of the trigger, and closed $1,620 below that high.
B · range: not wrong by its own test, but it didn't survive the morning. The daily close ($73,698) stayed above B's limit ($73,636) by $62. But price left the band at 8 a.m., and the range hadn't held for any practical purpose. The "wrong if" line was written as a daily close, which is the wrong clock on a data day.
ETH: C's first two zones ($2,089 and $2,080) were reached (the low was $2,003). The third, $1,972, was missed by $31, and the fourth wasn't reached. ETH fell 3.8% on the day against Bitcoin's 2.1%.
Order book and clusters. The 52.1 BTC bid at 73,934 and the 50.8 BTC ask at 74,539 were both traded through. The long clusters at $73,968 and $73,800, the nearest and the biggest, were cleared by the drop. The triple of 20 BTC asks near $76,280 is no longer on the book.
What we got right: the ranking of C above A, the yellow-band rule (it held off a false trigger at 5 a.m., and it kept the 2 a.m. close from counting as a rally), and the line to skip the first 15 minutes after 8:30 and the 9:30 open. The 10 a.m. hour swung about $2,000 from top to bottom.
What we got wrong: B. I ranked it first alongside C, and its exit line was a daily close, which arrived 11 hours after the move.
What we learned: on a data day, a range case needs an hourly-close exit, not only a daily one. I'll add one to every range case from now on.
30 BTC levels, each with its source.
BTC, above:
$82,007: the Oct 19 weekly open (Coinbase).
$81.5K: the average cost basis of the US spot ETFs (Glassnode, The Week On-chain, Oct 28).
$80,053: the Oct 26 weekly open (Coinbase).
$79,107: the Oct 24 low (Coinbase).
$78,232: the Nov 2 weekly open (Coinbase).
$78,000: a retest level 21Shares named (The Block, Nov 10).
$77.7K: the True Market Mean, an on-chain average-cost line (Glassnode, Nov 4).
$77,424: October's close and November's open (Coinbase).
$76,553: the Nov 2 low (Coinbase).
BTC, the middle:
$76,497: the 200-day average (Decrypt, Nov 6). Bitget's Lewis Huang put a 200-day average near $73,200 on Tuesday (The Block), so the two sources disagree.
$76,256: Friday's high (Coinbase).
$76,141: October's low, Oct 30 (Coinbase).
$75.7K: the short-term-holder cost basis, the average cost of coins bought in the last 155 days (Glassnode, Nov 4).
$75,545: a horizontal support. FXStreet says a daily close under it opens $70,000 (FXStreet, Oct 30).
$75,477: Monday's high (Coinbase).
$75,456: Strategy's average purchase price for its 850,364 BTC (Strategy 8-K of Nov 9, via Decrypt).
$75,340: Tuesday's high, set in the first hour (Coinbase).
$75,035: Thursday Nov 5's low (Coinbase).
BTC, below:
$74,756: this week's open, Monday 00:00 UTC (Coinbase).
$74,722: the Nov 6 low (Coinbase).
$74,000: the 23.6% retracement FXStreet named (FXStreet, Oct 26), and Wednesday's high so far is about $74,087 (Coinbase).
$73,636: Monday's low (Coinbase).
$73,477: Sunday's low (Coinbase).
$73,200: a 200-day average, per Bitget (The Block, Nov 10).
$73,000: the level 21Shares calls key and BRN says a daily close under could send price toward $70,000 (The Block; CoinDesk, Nov 9).
$72,643: Tuesday's low, 11 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$72,500: the bottom of the $73K to $72.5K support Decrypt flagged (Decrypt, Nov 6).
$70,000: FXStreet's path if $75,545 breaks on a daily close (FXStreet, Oct 30).
$69,000: 21Shares' downside level if $73,000 breaks (The Block, Nov 10).
$68,000: Wintermute's second downside target (Decrypt, Nov 6).
The order book walls and liquidation clusters have their own blocks below.
ETH:
$2,777: the October high (Coinbase).
$2,448: the Nov 4 high (Coinbase).
$2,377: the Oct 29 high (Coinbase).
$2,327: the Oct 26 weekly open (Coinbase).
$2,311: ETH's realized price, the on-chain cost basis (FXStreet, Oct 24).
$2,272: the Nov 2 weekly open (Coinbase).
$2,252: November's open (Coinbase).
$2,243: Sunday's high (Coinbase).
$2,170: October's low (Coinbase).
$2,149: Monday's high (Coinbase).
$2,125: this week's open (Coinbase).
$2,089: Sunday's low (Coinbase).
$2,080: Monday's low (Coinbase).
$2,003: Tuesday's low, 10 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$2,000: the support 21Shares and The Block name (The Block, Nov 10).
$1,972, $1,828 and $1,800: deeper supports (FXStreet, Oct 24; 21Shares, Nov 10).
These are standing buy and sell orders on Coinbase (BTC-USD) and Kraken (BTC/USD), taken at about 6:30 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $73,956. They are not trades, and they can be pulled in a blink.
Balance within 1% of the price. Coinbase has 156.2 BTC of bids and 202.0 BTC of asks, about 29% more sell orders. Kraken has 155.0 BTC of bids and 161.8 BTC of asks, about 4% more sell orders. Both lean slightly to the sell side, and Coinbase leans more.
Walls below (bids):
Coinbase 73,655.17: 50.4 BTC ($3.71M), the biggest bid on Coinbase's book. It sits $19 above Monday's low.
Coinbase 72,500.00: 17.0 BTC ($1.23M), a round number, and 13.8 BTC at 72,400.00. Both are close to the biggest long cluster in the map below.
Kraken 73,787.00: 27.1 BTC ($2.00M), with 15.2 BTC at 73,800.00 and 15.0 BTC at 73,895.70.
Walls above (asks):
Coinbase 75,000.00: 71.0 BTC ($5.33M), the biggest wall on either book, and a round number. One 71 BTC order at a round price looks like a single seller (inference).
Coinbase 74,246.22: 52.7 BTC ($3.91M), the nearest big ask, about 0.4% above the price. Smaller asks sit at 74,174.15 (16.1 BTC) and 74,132.17 (12.3 BTC).
Kraken 74,109.40: 27.0 BTC ($2.00M), then 25.9 BTC at 76,000.00 and 20.0 BTC at 75,499.90.
What happened to yesterday's walls. The 52.1 BTC bid at 73,934 and the 50.8 BTC ask at 74,539 were both traded through, so neither held. The triple of 20 BTC asks at 76,275 to 76,285 is gone from the top of the book without ever being reached. On Kraken, a 27 BTC bid and a 27 BTC ask have both moved down by about $300 since yesterday (from 74,079.40 and 74,415.00 to 73,787.00 and 74,109.40). The same pair of equal-sized orders, moving down together, looks like one market maker refreshing its quotes (inference).
Whale or market maker? The first five levels each side are almost empty on Coinbase, so I see no ladder there. The Kraken pair above is the only sign of a market maker. I can't see who placed the big orders.
Walls to watch (not predictions): the 50.4 BTC bid at 73,655, the 52.7 BTC ask at 74,246 and the 71 BTC ask at 75,000.
Caveats: walls can be spoofed, icebergs hide size, ETF and over-the-counter buying never shows in the book, and two venues are a small slice of the market. Most walls here are worth $1M to $5M.
This is CoinGlass's liquidation map for Binance BTC/USDT (Model 1, 24-hour window), read at about 6:35 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $73,950. The bars are CoinGlass's model estimates of where leveraged positions would be force-closed. They are not actual positions. Clusters that the price has already traded through disappear from the map.
The nearest longs are gone. Yesterday's closest long cluster ($73,968) and its biggest ($73,800) were cleared by the drop. Today's map has about $300M of longs within 2% below the price and about $340M of shorts within 2% above. Over a wider range the longs are bigger, about $553M against about $482M.
Shorts above (forced buys):
The nearest cluster is $74,214 ($15.2M), then $74,330 ($16.9M), $74,445 ($11.6M), $74,503 ($24.2M) and $74,561 ($26.9M). The biggest are $74,792 ($35.3M) and $74,907 ($35.0M), just above this week's open. Next come $75,254 ($13.3M), $75,369 ($18.9M), $75,427 ($15.6M) and $75,658 ($16.2M).
Added up from the price: about $15M of shorts by $74,214, about $89M by $74,503, about $203M by $74,792, about $248M by $74,907, about $341M by $75,427, about $413M by $76,350, and about $482M up to $77,621.
Longs below (forced sells):
The nearest cluster is $73,348 ($10.3M), then $73,175 ($21.9M), $73,118 ($23.9M), $73,002 ($16.2M), $72,887 ($24.6M) and $72,656 ($20.7M). The biggest is $72,540 ($45.7M). Then come $72,425 ($23.8M) and $72,252 ($18.9M).
Added up from the price: about $10M of longs by $73,348, about $86M by $73,118, about $157M by $72,887, about $282M by $72,540, about $346M by $72,309, about $450M by $71,617, and about $553M down to $70,058.
Which side is the bigger pool? Nearby, the shorts. Further out, the longs. A bigger pool can pull price toward it, but a cluster is fuel, not a floor.
How it lines up with the other blocks:
The biggest short clusters ($74,792 and $74,907) sit just above this week's open and Tuesday's 10 a.m. spike ($74,753, which stopped $3 short of the open). The 71 BTC ask at 75,000 stands right behind them.
The first long clusters ($73,348 and $73,175) sit just under the 50.4 BTC bid at 73,655 and Monday's low.
The biggest long cluster ($72,540) sits just under Tuesday's low ($72,643) and next to the 17 BTC bid at 72,500.
Caveats: Binance BTC/USDT only, one model, a 24-hour window, a single snapshot. A move in either direction will change this map within minutes.
These are conditional scenarios, not predictions or buy/sell calls. A "break" needs an hourly close, not a wick. A close within about 0.1% of a trigger is a yellow light: check the next hour. I'm writing this at about 6:50 a.m. ET Wednesday. The daily close is tonight at 7 p.m. ET, Thursday 00:00 UTC.
Where BTC starts: about $73,950, between Monday's low and this week's open. ETH starts near $2,056.
The drivers, in order of when they land:
Now: Europe's open and US stock futures (strongly up).
9:30 a.m.: the US stock open. The bond market is closed, so rates won't guide it.
Today: Mast's deadline for Nvidia's CEO, and the MSCI treasury-company decision if it arrives.
After 7 p.m.: the plan below ends at the close. Thursday opens with jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., a 30-year auction at 1:00 p.m. and five Fed speakers. The Asian session comes before the next edition.
A · Higher: BTC makes an hourly close above $74,756.
BTC: $75,035 → $75,340 → $75,477 → $75.7K. ETH: $2,080 → $2,089 → $2,125 → $2,149.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC falls back under $73,636 on an hourly close within a day.
The yellow band is $74,681 to $74,831. The big short clusters and the 75,000 wall sit just above it, so a close there needs a second look.
B · Range: BTC stays between $73,636 and $74,756.
BTC: that band, about 1.5% wide, with the current price inside it. ETH: $2,003 to $2,125.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC makes a clean hourly close outside the band (outside the yellow zones). A daily close is only the final test.
C · Break: BTC makes an hourly close under $73,636.
BTC: $73,477 → $73,000 → $72,643 → $72,500. If the break extends: $70,000 and $69,000. ETH: $2,003 → $1,972 → $1,828 → $1,800.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC slips under $73,636 but the daily close is back above $74,756.
The yellow band is $73,562 to $73,710. The price is about 0.4% above it now. The first long cluster and the 50.4 BTC bid sit right there, so a close inside the band is only a yellow light.
What could drive each one. A: the stock rally carrying over, a short squeeze into the clusters near $74.8K, or an ETF flow that stops being an outflow. C: a ninth day of IBIT outflows, a bad Nvidia headline, or more Fed hike talk with the bond market shut. I'm ranking B first, then A, then C. Putting A above C follows Monday's lesson: when US stocks rally, rank the upside case higher.
Before the 9:30 open, in both directions:
If BTC closes an hour above this week's open before 9:30, then the next zones are Thursday's low and Tuesday's high. The stock rally would be showing up in crypto for the first time this week.
If BTC closes an hour under Monday's low before 9:30, then the next zones are Sunday's low and the round $73,000. It would mean a third day of Bitcoin ignoring a stock rally.
After 7 p.m.: the plan ends at the close. If a break happens late, the next two zones are the ones above for A or C, and I'll write a Thursday plan around claims and the Fed speakers.
What I'd skip: the first 15 minutes after the 9:30 open, and any move in the hour after a Fed speaker. Thin bond trading can exaggerate both.
Five items, each dated, plus what I couldn't find.
1. ETF flows by fund (TFTC, last checked 5:00 a.m. ET Wednesday). Monday Nov 9: −$201.1M, with IBIT −$213.2M, ARKB −$9.9M and MSBT +$22.1M. Tuesday Nov 10: −$95.0M, with IBIT −$78.2M, FBTC −$36.8M and MSBT +$20.0M. Friday Nov 6 was −$411.9M. That's three days in a row, and about $708M over the three. IBIT has now seen outflows eight days straight (Cointelegraph, citing Farside). The on-chain side of these flows is redemption plumbing, not BlackRock selling. I found no BlackRock or Coinbase Prime transfers.
2. How much the average ETF buyer is up or down. Glassnode's US spot ETF cost basis was $81.5K on Oct 28. At today's price that's about 9% under water, slightly worse than a day ago. The cost basis moves every day, so treat it as a snapshot.
3. Strategy. No new filing since the Nov 9 8-K: 850,364 BTC at an average of about $75,456, plus 1,036 BTC bought this week at about $79,012. At today's price its whole stack is about 2% under water, and this week's purchase about 6%.
4. MARA's shareholder letter (CoinDesk, Nov 10). It sold 13,597 BTC at about $81,039, 40% of the 34,012 BTC it held at the end of September, and repaid $750M of bitcoin-backed loans. The share of its coins pledged or lent fell from 57% to under 5%. Q3 revenue fell 35% to $164M, and the board authorized up to $500M of buybacks. Lookonchain counts 14 public companies that sold 108,247 BTC (about $8.08B) this year, with MARA at 40,581 BTC (an average of $74,446) and Riot at 20,264 BTC ($73,231). That's miners and treasuries selling, not accumulating.
5. Ether treasuries. Bitmine reported a $6.3B net loss for its fiscal year on the 44% decline in ether, and holds about 6.07M ETH, 4.97% of supply (The Block; Cointelegraph, Nov 11). Forward Industries took its SOL treasury to 8.7M SOL.
Not found today: Arkham and Lookonchain whale transfers, Hyperliquid whales, CryptoQuant holdings, new Glassnode data, Metaplanet, Twenty One and Strive purchases, Ether ETF flows, Binance withdrawal and mining-pool status, and the MSCI decision. Q3 13F filings are due Monday Nov 16.
DVOL: Deribit's volatility index is back, at 39.2 on Wednesday, down from 39.5 on Tuesday and 41.0 on Sunday. Implied volatility fell while the price dropped, so options traders aren't paying up for protection. That's a calm reading after a 2% drop.
Funding (OKX, 8h): BTC +0.0094%, about flat on yesterday's +0.0100%, and ETH +0.0035%, down from +0.0041%. Both are still positive, so longs are still paying.
Open interest is about 1.8% higher than yesterday morning, so positions were added through the drop. FXStreet's headline today says leverage is building in derivatives markets.
Options: I found no options-flow reporting this week. The next monthly expiry is Nov 27. 21Shares' Matt Mena says a break under $73,000 could send Bitcoin toward $69,000 and a retest of $78,000 would be the upside case, and CoinDesk quotes BRN saying a daily UTC close under $73,000 could trigger momentum-driven selling toward $70,000.
What I'm watching
Whether $73,636 (Monday's low) holds on an hourly close, and whether this week's open is reclaimed.
The 50.4 BTC bid at 73,655, the 52.7 BTC ask at 74,246 and the 71 BTC ask at 75,000.
Whether IBIT's eight-day outflow streak ends.
The stock open at 9:30, Nvidia's headlines and Mast's deadline.
The MSCI decision, MARA's next sale and Binance's withdrawal status.
Thursday's claims and Fed speakers, then Friday's PPI.
The next scorecard is Thursday's edition.
— Pro Swing Trader
This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.
Sources: Coinbase Exchange candles – prices, opens, highs and lows · Coinbase order book · Kraken order book · CoinGlass – Liquidation Heatmap · BLS – October CPI · CNBC – CPI report, October 2026 · CNBC – Waller · CNBC – stock market today · FXStreet – Hot CPI cements December hike · investingLive – Veterans Day bond closure · investingLive – Waller and Ethereum · investingLive – crude oil rebounds · Decrypt – Nvidia and Huang subpoena threat · Decrypt – Bitcoin falls on hot inflation · CoinDesk – live news, CPI day · CoinDesk – CoreWeave and bitcoin · CoinDesk – MARA sold 13,597 BTC · Cointelegraph – Bitcoin near 11-week low · Cointelegraph – ETF outflows persist · The Block – Bitcoin slides below $74,000 · The Block – Bitmine net loss · The Block – Across domain hijack · Cointelegraph – Initia exploit · SIFMA – holiday schedule · TFTC – BTC ETF flows, November 2026 · Trading Economics – crude oil, Brent, DXY · CoinMarketCap – market cap and dominance · Glassnode – Week 44 · FXStreet – Top 3 price predictions (Oct 30) · FXStreet – Bitcoin tests $80K support (Oct 26) · Decrypt – Bitcoin hits 11-week low · OKX – funding and open interest · DefiLlama – stablecoins · alternative.me – Fear & Greed · Deribit – DVOL