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Pro Swing Trader Daily Brief
Saturday, October 24, 2026
Good morning. It's Saturday, so stocks are closed. The only big markets open right now are crypto and the news. That matters this weekend.
Here are the three things to know:
Oil settled at $116.72 on Friday, a six-month high, as traders priced in a possible US strike on Iran.
Bitcoin ETFs lost $636 million on Thursday and $138 million on Friday. That's $773 million in two days.
Bitcoin dipped to $80,401 on Friday evening, then steadied near $80,600 (Coinbase).
A correction first
Yesterday I wrote that Thursday's ETF outflow was $381 million. That was a preliminary number, and it was wrong. The final figure is $635.5 million (TFTC, Farside), the biggest one-day outflow since June 25.
That also changes two other lines. I said October was about +$80M. After Thursday it was −$174.5M, and after Friday's outflow it's about −$312M. And the week isn't +$697M. It's about +$305M through Friday.
Lesson learned: when the table isn't posted, I'll say "unknown" instead of printing a preliminary number.
Oil is the weekend story
Brent crude rose about 3% on Friday to $116.72, a six-month high and its third weekly gain in a row. US crude settled near $103.4 (investingLive, Crypto.com).
The reason is the Middle East. Reports talk of possible US strikes on Iran, some pointing to this weekend and others to after the Nov 3 midterms, and oil traders didn't want to be short before the weekend. Nothing was confirmed when I checked. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are part of the picture too (CNBC, investingLive).
The one thing crypto has that stocks don't is that it trades on Saturday and Sunday. If there's news, Bitcoin is one of the few places that can react to it before Monday.
Strong data, hot prices, higher yields
Friday's US data was good, which is how it turned into a problem for rate hopes.
S&P Global flash PMIs: composite 57.6, manufacturing 56.0 (a 53-month high), services 57.9. Selling prices rose at the fastest pace since August 2022.
University of Michigan sentiment: 48.0, better than the 46.3 first reading. One-year inflation expectations were 4.7% (CoinDesk).
A strong economy plus rising prices keeps the Fed in hiking mode. The 10-year Treasury yield bounced back to about 5.00% on Friday (investingLive). CME FedWatch gave the Fed about a 93% chance of holding at the Oct 27–28 meeting. A hike by December looks more likely than not.
Wall Street ended the week lower
S&P 500: −0.52% on Friday to 7,623.68, and −0.5% for the week.
Nasdaq Composite: −0.21% to 25,955, and −0.7% for the week.
Dow: −1.2% on Friday, but up 0.4% for the week. Only 6 of its 30 stocks rose.
The winners were cybersecurity stocks. CrowdStrike gained 8.3% and Palo Alto Networks 7.2% (investingLive). Chip and AI stocks were the week's losers, and Meta lost 9.4% on the week. Next week brings Alphabet and Microsoft (Wednesday after the close) and Amazon (Thursday).
Gold fell below $4,000 for the first time since July (CoinDesk). It's down about 3.5% on the week, moving with Bitcoin again, not against it.
Bitcoin: a quiet day, then a late dip
Until 5 p.m. ET Bitcoin stayed mostly in a tight band, between about $81,100 and $82,000. At 6 p.m. it began to slide, and in the 7 p.m. hour it touched $80,401 (Coinbase). That's lower than last week's lows.
It bounced to about $80,900 and was near $80,650 at 2 a.m. ET Saturday. Friday's daily close (8 p.m. ET) was $81,078, down 0.28%.
I can't point to one cause for the evening slide. Oil was at a six-month high and ETFs had sold the day before, and both were in the background.
The week in one line: Bitcoin opened at $82,007, hit $84,856 on Wednesday, and is near $80,600 now. A $4,455 range for a net move of about −1.7%.
One more number from Glassnode, via CoinDesk: the average cost basis of the spot ETFs is $82,313. BTC is now under it.
The ETF scoreboard, final
Day | BTC ETF flow |
|---|---|
Monday | +$526.6M |
Tuesday | +$23.2M |
Wednesday | +$528.4M |
Thursday | −$635.5M |
Friday | −$137.9M (Farside, TFTC not posted yet) |
CoinDesk quoted Farside's note that, after the 22 prior days with outflows above $300M, BTC was on average lower 7, 30 and 90 days later. That's history, not a forecast.
Ether ETFs lost $110.6M on Thursday (The Block), and about $225M from Monday to Thursday (Crypto.com). I don't have Friday's Ether number yet.
On-chain: wallets tied to BlackRock's spot ETFs sent 3,215 BTC (about $262M) to Coinbase Prime on Friday (Yahoo Finance, citing on-chain records). The source of the wallet labels isn't named, and moved doesn't mean sold. The article reads it as settling Thursday's IBIT redemptions, which were $254.1M. That's its interpretation, not a confirmed fact.
Altcoins: a short bounce
On Friday morning, DeFi tokens bounced after leading Thursday's drop: Uniswap +3.5% and Ethena +2% (CoinDesk). PEPE jumped 13% with no clear catalyst, and Polkadot and Cosmos gained more than 5%. The CoinDesk 80 index added about 0.7%.
The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season index read 58 out of 100, up from 54 on Monday. It's a reading, not an altseason call.
By Saturday morning the bounce had faded. Ether was near $2,375 after touching $2,349 on Friday evening. The ETH/BTC ratio is about 0.0294, basically unchanged (Coinbase).
Also on the radar
A denied hack. India's largest exchange denied it was hacked after blockchain sleuths flagged about $16 million in suspicious outflows. That's an allegation, not a confirmed breach (CoinDesk).
Bitcoin Core changes its security rules. The project is revising how it discloses bugs, because AI tools make bugs much easier to find (CoinDesk).
Franklin Templeton added $150 million in fund shares to XRP Ledger, all held in a single wallet (CoinDesk).
Market dashboard
BTC | $81,078 (Friday 8 p.m. ET close) · −0.28% · about $80,650 at 2 a.m. ET Saturday |
ETH | $2,384 (Friday close) · −0.06% · about $2,375 at 2 a.m. ET Saturday |
Funding rate (OKX, 8h) | BTC +0.0100% · ETH +0.0019% (small, positive) |
Liquidations (24h) | — (no clean Friday figure; Thursday was $441M, longs $397M) |
Open interest | OKX BTC perps $2.46B (30,544 BTC) · −2.6% vs Friday 2 a.m. ET |
BTC ETF flow | Friday −$137.9M (Farside) · Thursday −$635.5M · week about +$305M |
ETH ETF flow | Thursday −$110.6M · Friday — |
Stablecoins (USDT + USDC) | $254.3B · 7-day −$1.9B |
Whale line | BlackRock-linked wallets sent 3,215 BTC to Coinbase Prime (moved, not confirmed sold) |
Fear & Greed (alternative.me) | 51 (neutral) · Friday 50 |
DXY · US 10Y · Brent · Gold | — · about 5.00% · $116.72 · under $4,000 |
Open interest is the total value of futures contracts still open. It fell a little overnight, which fits traders closing positions after Friday's dip.
The week ahead (ET)
Sunday, 8 p.m.: the weekly close for Bitcoin. This week's open was $82,007.
Tuesday and Wednesday: the Fed meets (Oct 27–28). The decision is Wednesday at 2:00 p.m., then Chair Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. The rate is 3.75% to 4.00% after September's hike.
Wednesday after the close: Alphabet and Microsoft earnings.
Thursday: the ECB decision, and Amazon after the close.
Friday, Oct 30: the Bank of Japan decision, and the Deribit options expiry at 4 a.m. ET. Estimates put it at $11.7B to $12.2B notional.
Saturday, Oct 31, 8 p.m.: October's close. The month opened at $83,556.
Sunday, Nov 1: US clocks go back one hour.
I haven't confirmed the dates of next week's US growth and inflation releases, so I'm leaving them out instead of guessing.
Today's takeaway
This weekend isn't about charts. It's about whether the oil headlines turn into action, and whether ETF selling continues on Monday.
Bitcoin is under its weekly open ($82,007) and under the ETF cost basis ($82,313). The nearby floor is $80,401, Friday's low. Above it, the first lines are $81,081 and $82,007.
Yesterday's result: the "stress" branch was the one that played out. Our trigger fired, three of our zones were reached, and the next one ($80,000) wasn't. But the ETF number I gave you was wrong, and the scorecard says so.
Today in Premium:
The plan to Wednesday's Fed decision. What happens if Iran headlines hit, and what happens if they don't?
27 BTC key levels, each with its source, including Friday's new low.
ETH under $2,349: which cited levels sit above and below.
Options and funding check: the October 30 expiry (about $12B), and what the skew says.
🔒 Scenario C: BTC hourly close below $8█,███ with oil still climbing → next zone $8█,███–$7█,███
Premium readers get all of this below 👇
Friday's plan had three branches. A was "relief" (an hourly close above $82,500). B was "range" (BTC between $80,790 and $82,500, wrong on a daily close under $80,694 or above $83,076). C was "stress" (Nasdaq down or Brent up, plus an hourly close under $80,790).
A · relief: not triggered. The best hourly close was $81,891, in the 9 a.m. ET hour. It never got near $82,500.
B · range: broke on the way down. The daily close of $81,078 sat inside the range and the "wrong if" didn't fire. But the low was $80,401, $389 under the bottom edge.
C · stress: it was the live branch. Brent rose to $116.72, a six-month high, which met the macro condition (the Nasdaq barely moved, down 0.2%). The price trigger fired too: the 6 p.m. ET hourly close was $80,719, under $80,790.
C · zones: three of four. BTC reached $80,694, $80,625 and $80,565 (the low was $80,401). It didn't reach $80,000.
C · "wrong if" (daily close back above $81,500): not triggered. The daily close was $81,078.
ETH: first zones reached. The plan's C zones were $2,357 and $2,354. ETH touched $2,349, but not $2,325 (Coinbase).
Gold: right. C said gold was "more likely to stay under pressure," and it fell below $4,000 for the first time since July.
The drivers: the manufacturing PMI and the Michigan survey beat expectations, which wasn't in either scenario's wording. I'd treated "good data" as neutral. It pushed yields back to about 5.00%.
What we got wrong: I printed a preliminary ETF number ($381M) that was 40% too small, and built the October total and the "week" on it. The plan also didn't say what strong data does to yields.
What we learned: no preliminary flow numbers. If the table isn't posted, the line says "unknown". And the plan needs a line for "good data, higher yields".
27 BTC levels, each with its source.
BTC, above:
$86,996: the Oct 5 high (Coinbase daily candle).
$85,000: a horizontal barrier in FXStreet's technical note (AI-assisted, Oct 16), a ceiling in Crypto.com's weekly recap, and the focus of October 30 call trading (CoinDesk).
$84,856: Wednesday's high (Coinbase).
$84,062–$84,262: the Oct 12–14 highs (Coinbase).
$83,678: the Oct 12 open (Coinbase).
$83,556: October's open (Coinbase).
$83,076: the Oct 19 high (Coinbase).
$82,500: support flagged by CoinDesk, lost on Thursday and now a ceiling.
$82,313: the average cost basis of the spot ETFs (Glassnode, via CoinDesk, Oct 23).
$82,007: this week's open (Coinbase).
$81,962: Friday's high (Coinbase).
BTC, the middle:
$81,081: Tuesday's low (Oct 20, Coinbase), the first line above price.
$81,000–$81,250: the largest visible block of Binance spot bids (Glassnode, Oct 7, so seventeen days old and tested on Friday).
$80,790: Thursday's low (Coinbase).
$80,694: the Oct 16 low (Coinbase).
$80,625: the 50-day EMA (FXStreet, Oct 19, AI-assisted).
$80,565: the Oct 18 low (Coinbase).
BTC, below:
$80,401: Friday's low, the 7 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$80,000: the psychological level, and the largest protective put cluster ahead of the October 30 expiry (Crypto.com).
$79,664–$79,676: the SuperTrend level (FXStreet, Oct 19) and the Oct 15 low (Coinbase).
$79,000: October 30 options max pain on Deribit (CryptoTicker, Oct 17). Other sources put it between $76,000 and $78,000, so treat it as a rough map.
$78,661: the 61.8% retracement of the move from the August 2024 low to the October 2025 high (FXStreet, AI-assisted, Oct 16).
$78,000: a large bitcoin put spread flagged by Derive targets it (CoinDesk, Oct 16). The "True Market Mean" is also near $78,000 (analysts cited by FXStreet).
$77,128: the 100-day EMA (FXStreet, Oct 19).
$76,584: the 50-week average (FXStreet, Oct 16).
$75,968: the 200-day EMA (FXStreet, Oct 19).
$75,000: a liquidation cluster flagged by Glassnode (Oct 7).
ETH:
$2,781 and $2,636: the next hurdles above (FXStreet, Oct 16, AI-assisted).
$2,600: FXStreet's upside target (Oct 19).
$2,548 and $2,538: a horizontal barrier and the 20-day EMA (FXStreet, Oct 16).
$2,524: Wednesday's high (Coinbase).
$2,484: the 50-day EMA (FXStreet, Oct 19).
$2,446: Tuesday's close and Thursday's high (Coinbase).
$2,408: this week's open (Coinbase).
$2,370: Tuesday's low (Coinbase).
$2,360 and $2,357: the 100-day EMA (FXStreet, Oct 19) and Thursday's low (Coinbase).
$2,354 and $2,349: the Oct 17 low and Friday's low (Coinbase).
$2,325: the Oct 18 low (Coinbase).
$2,313 and $2,311: the Oct 14 low (Coinbase) and the 200-day EMA (FXStreet, Oct 19).
$2,204, $1,971 and $1,827: deeper supports if $2,311 breaks (FXStreet, Oct 15).
These are conditional scenarios, not predictions or buy/sell calls. A "break" needs an hourly close, not a wick. Ranges here are sized to this week's daily ranges of about $1,500 to $3,500. Weekends have thin trading, so moves can run further on less volume, and any weekend news hits Bitcoin first because stocks are closed.
Where BTC starts: near $80,600, under this week's open of $82,007 and under the ETF cost basis of $82,313. ETH starts near $2,375.
The drivers:
Iran headlines this weekend. Reports of a possible US strike put oil at $116.72. None were confirmed when I checked.
Brent crude and US yields. Brent at a six-month high, the 10-year at about 5.00%.
ETF flows on Monday. Two days of selling totalled $773M.
BTC against $81,081 above and $80,401 below, plus Sunday's 8 p.m. weekly close.
The Fed on Wednesday, 2:00 p.m., and big-tech earnings after the close.
A · Relief: Iran headlines fade, Brent eases, and BTC makes an hourly close above $81,081.
BTC: $81,081 → $81,962 → $82,007 → $82,313 → $82,500 → $83,076.
ETH: $2,408 → $2,446 → $2,484.
Gold: more likely to stabilize near $4,000.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC clears $81,081 but falls back under $80,694 on an hourly close within a day.
B · Range: mixed headlines, BTC between $80,401 and $81,962.
BTC: $80,401 to $81,962, with $80,790 and $81,081 inside.
ETH: $2,349 to $2,408.
Gold: choppy around $4,000.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC has a daily close (8 p.m. ET) under $80,000 or above $82,500.
C · Break lower: Iran headlines escalate or Brent keeps climbing, and BTC makes an hourly close under $80,401.
BTC: $80,000 → $79,664–$79,676 → $79,000 → $78,661 → $78,000 → $77,128.
ETH: $2,325 → $2,311–$2,313 → $2,204.
Gold: it fell with BTC this week and could again, though it usually rises on war news. I wouldn't assume which wins.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC slips under $80,401 but the daily close is back above $81,081.
If it's a near-miss. A close between $80,300 and $80,500 is a yellow light, not a break. Check the next hour before treating $80,000 as live. That's the lesson from Thursday's $13 miss.
Combinations: quiet weekend plus a calm Monday Asian open is A or B. Iran headlines plus Brent above $117 and more ETF outflows is C, and C could move fast on a weekend. Strong data keeps yields near 5.00%, which is a headwind even in A. ETFs have been sellers for two days, so don't count on them to catch a fall.
Before the Fed decision on Wednesday, in both directions:
If BTC closes an hour above $82,500 before Wednesday, then a hold and steady oil mean $83,076 and then $83,556 to $83,678. A hawkish tone from Chair Warsh would make $82,500 a ceiling again.
If BTC closes an hour under $80,000 before Wednesday, then the next zones are $79,664 to $79,676 and the $79,000 max pain. A bounce would need to reclaim $80,625 first.
DVOL is about 37.5 on Deribit early Saturday, near Friday's 37.4 close. That's low for a week with a $4,455 range. CoinDesk says the one-week 25-delta skew (how much more puts cost than calls) fell to about 4% from a mid-month peak near 14%. Ether is different: its one-week put skew is near 13%, so ETH puts are still pricey.
The most-traded options. In BTC, five of the top six contracts were calls, led by the Nov 27 $98,000 call (CoinDesk, Friday). The one put was a $76,000 contract expiring Oct 30. The data doesn't say who was buying or selling.
Funding (OKX, 8h): BTC +0.0100%, ETH +0.0019%. BTC's is higher than Thursday's +0.0067%. Longs are paying a bit more to hold on a falling price. That's a small crowding signal, and it's worth watching. CoinDesk's Friday note had liquidations falling about two-thirds from Thursday's levels.
Open interest: OKX BTC perp open interest is 30,544 BTC ($2.46B), down from 31,375 BTC on Friday at 2 a.m. ET.
Next big expiry: Friday, October 30, 4 a.m. ET. Estimates range from about $11.7B (Crypto.com, including about $4.5B in calls between $90,000 and $100,000) to $12.2B (CryptoTicker, Oct 17, which also had a put/call ratio of 0.52 and max pain at $79,000). The biggest put cluster sits at $80,000. Max pain is a positioning measure, not a forecast.
Whales: the BlackRock-linked move of 3,215 BTC to Coinbase Prime is the one confirmed item, with the caveat that the wallet labels aren't sourced.
What I'm watching
Sunday's 8 p.m. weekly close against $82,007, and whether $80,401 holds.
Any Iran headline over the weekend, and the Monday Asian open.
Monday's ETF number: more selling, or a pause?
Brent against $117, and the 10-year yield against 5.00%.
The Fed on Wednesday, and Alphabet and Microsoft after the close.
The next scorecard is Monday's edition.
— Pro Swing Trader
This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.
Sources: Coinbase Exchange candles – prices, opens, highs and lows · CoinDesk – Live updates: Bitcoin holds above $81,000 as oil prices hit six-month high · CoinDesk – Bitcoin steadies near $81,700 as altcoins rebound · The Block – Bitcoin ETFs swing back to net outflows · TFTC – BTC ETF flows, October 2026 · Farside – BTC ETF flows · Crypto.com – Fed meeting weekender · investingLive – Americas market wrap · investingLive – Dow leads stocks lower · investingLive – weekend Iran escalation · Yahoo Finance – BlackRock moved bitcoin to Coinbase · CoinDesk – Franklin Templeton on XRP Ledger · CoinDesk – India exchange denies hack · CoinDesk – Bitcoin Core security rules · FXStreet – US PMI preview and FedWatch · OKX – funding and open interest · DefiLlama – stablecoins · Deribit – DVOL · alternative.me – Fear & Greed · CryptoTicker – October 30 options expiry · FXStreet – technical levels (Oct 15 to 19) · CoinDesk – bitcoin put spread and options (Oct 16)