Sponsored by

A CRM so smart, it updates itself.

HubSpot's CRM is so smart, it now updates itself. Calls get logged and summarized the moment they end. New leads get researched and a first outreach drafted, automatically. Deals move forward on their own, with next steps flagged before you have to ask. 

Even the one repetitive task you've been meaning to fix can now run itself, no code required. Customers using it are already seeing the difference. 

This isn't the CRM you have to work hard to figure out. It's the one already working before you log in.

Pro Swing Trader Daily Brief
Sunday, November 8, 2026

Good morning. There was no Friday or Saturday edition, so this one covers Thursday through Sunday. Bitcoin gave back all of Wednesday's rally on Thursday as US stocks had their worst day in over a year and a half, then spent the rest of the week in a narrow range near the bottom. A hot jobs report raised the odds of a Fed rate hike, and spot Bitcoin ETFs lost money on four of five days. The numbers are in the dashboard below.

I'm writing at about 8:15 a.m. ET.

Updates to Thursday's edition

  • The Bank of England. I wrote that a 7–2 vote was expected. The Bank hiked to 4.00% in a unanimous 9–0 vote.

  • ETFs. I asked whether a second day of inflows would follow Wednesday's. It didn't: Thursday and Friday were both big outflows, covered below. Ether ETF flows, which I couldn't find Thursday, are below too.

  • Claims. I gave the jobless-claims consensus as 196K. I couldn't find the actual number.

  • The Senate and the House. I still can't find final seat counts.

  • Trump Media. I found no follow-up on whether its 4,259 BTC transfer was a sale.

  • Thursday's plan is graded in Premium, below the paywall.

Thursday: the AI-stock crash

  • Stocks. The S&P 500 fell 4.35% to 7,354, its worst day since April 2025. The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52%, the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.36%, its worst since 2020, and the Dow fell 3.44%. The Russell 2000 fell 4.45%. Nvidia fell 9.26%, Tesla 10.77% and Cisco 7.62% (investingLive). The explanation across outlets is fear that the Democratic midterm sweep means tougher regulation of AI data-center building.

  • The Bank of England raised its rate to 4.00% in a 9–0 vote, as expected. Governor Bailey said the case for another quarter-point hike is there "if war doesn't end." On Friday, policymaker Pill said rates could stay on hold or even fall next year if growth stalls, which doesn't match Bailey's tone.

  • The Fed. Hammack (8:52 a.m. ET) said "gradual rate hikes are the best way to get inflation to target." Barkin (9:20 a.m. ET) said a gradual pace of hikes "makes sense." Bitcoin's drop started in the 9 a.m. hour. No source I read ties it to a single remark, so I won't either.

  • Liquidations. CoinGlass, via Decrypt, counted $1.05 billion over 24 hours, about 88% of it longs. CoinDesk's figure was higher, at more than $1.27 billion. I haven't reconciled the two.

Friday: a hot jobs report

  • Payrolls rose 165K in October against 65K expected. September was revised up to 60K from 29K. Unemployment fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month, against 0.3% expected, and 3.1% on the year (Trading Economics).

  • Sentiment. The University of Michigan's preliminary reading was 51.0 against 48.0 expected, and year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.3% from 4.7%.

  • Reaction. The dollar rose, and the two sources I read disagree on the direction of the 10-year yield. Daly said the report was "good news." I couldn't find CME FedWatch odds for December afterwards. Before the report, CoinDesk had them near 70%.

  • Friday's close. The S&P 500 rose 0.31%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.35% and the Dow fell 0.46%. For the week, the S&P 500 fell about 3.2%, the Nasdaq about 5.5% and the Dow about 1.7% (Trading Economics).

The weekend

  • Iran. Trump said Friday that "we are talking to Iran." Reports say Iran responded positively to a mediator's proposal and is reviewing proposals on its nuclear program. investingLive's WTI outlook refers to a 17.5% slide.

  • Markets. I found no weekend market news beyond that.

Crypto, Binance and policy

  • Binance. CFO Kaiser Ng is leaving, replaced by Justin Yek, and the co-CEO says the change was planned six months ago (The Block, Saturday). Some European users were told to move their crypto out because accounts close by year-end (CoinDesk). Binance says it will reopen withdrawals for HYPE, INJ, APT, PLASMA, NEAR and LTC "by the end of next week." I found no result for its full proof of reserves.

  • The thief. Elliptic says about $124 million of stolen tokens was swapped to BTC, $2.85 billion is frozen and about $3.11 billion is still in attack-linked addresses. It says a "negligible amount" has been cashed out (The Block, Friday). I haven't confirmed the 18,270 BTC figure I quoted earlier, because the sources I read this week give dollar values.

  • MEXC. The US Treasury moved to cut off MEXC Global over about $16 billion in alleged flows linked to Iran, North Korea and Russia (The Block).

  • Other security. Gnosis Pay exposed customer data and says funds are unaffected. An ex-FBI agent pleaded guilty to stealing $2.47 million in crypto.

  • Policy. The Treasury walked back its crypto "travel rule" proposal, and the administration moved closer to allowing crypto in 401(k) plans. CoinDesk says the Democratic sweep could be "the final nail" for the CLARITY Act. Nasdaq approved a staked INJ ETF listing.

ETFs: the worst week since June

US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost money on Thursday and Friday after Wednesday's inflow. On Thursday IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC both sold. On Friday IBIT alone lost most of the day's money while FBTC took some in. The week's total, the daily numbers and the fund-by-fund split are in the dashboard and in Premium. TFTC says the data was last checked at 5:00 a.m. ET today. IBIT is included and each day's funds sum to the total. The Block says it's the worst week since June and that Bitcoin ETFs are now down for 2026.

Ether ETFs lost money too, for a sixth straight negative week, according to The Block's SoSoValue data.

Where Bitcoin stands

Bitcoin fell about 6% on Thursday, touched its lowest since Aug 21 on Friday (Decrypt) and has traded in a narrow band since. It's about 3% under this week's open and 2% under November's open. Ether is down more: about 9% from Wednesday's high.

Market dashboard

BTC

$75,754 (Saturday 7 p.m. ET close) · −0.07% · about $75,840 at 7:50 a.m. ET

BTC this week

high $81,131 (Wednesday, 10 a.m. hour) · low $74,722 (Friday, 10 a.m. hour)

ETH

$2,237 (Saturday close) · +0.05% · about $2,236 at 7:50 a.m. ET

Funding rate (OKX, 8h)

BTC +0.0034% · ETH +0.0052%

Open interest

OKX BTC perps $2.63B (34,590 BTC)

BTC ETF flow

Friday −$411.9M · Thursday −$430.2M · Mon–Fri −$1.28B (TFTC)

Ether ETF flow

Mon–Fri −$365.3M (The Block, SoSoValue)

Stablecoins (USDT + USDC)

$247.4B · 7-day −$4.0B

Whale line

Elliptic: $3.11B still in attack-linked addresses, $124M swapped to BTC

Fear & Greed (alternative.me)

28 (fear) · Saturday 25 (extreme fear)

US 10Y · WTI · Gold (Friday)

about 4.87% · about $90.5 · about $4,070

Open interest is the total value of futures contracts still open. It's about 3% higher than Thursday morning even though the price fell about 5%, so traders added positions on the way down. The data doesn't say which side.

Fear & Greed rose from extreme fear to fear overnight.

Today and the week ahead (ET)

  • Today: no major data. The weekly close is 7 p.m. tonight (Monday 00:00 UTC).

  • Monday: Fed speakers Bowman (8:40 a.m.), Goolsbee (10:00) and Barkin (12:15), and a 3-year Treasury auction at 1:00 p.m. Strategy's filing usually lands Monday.

  • Tuesday: October CPI at 8:30 a.m. (Trading Economics' calendar, and I couldn't verify the consensus), Logan, a 10-year auction, and CoreWeave earnings.

  • Wednesday is Veterans Day. I couldn't verify market hours. Thursday: jobless claims, Hammack and Daly. Friday: October PPI.

  • Crypto: Binance's withdrawal reopenings, and the CFTC positioning report, which is delayed to Nov 16 for Veterans Day.

  • Dec 8–9: the next FOMC meeting.

Today's takeaway

Bitcoin broke on the stock crash, not on crypto news, and it hasn't recovered because the reasons are still there: a Fed that is talking about hikes, a stock market that is repricing AI, and ETF holders who keep selling. The market has been quiet since Friday morning, and a quiet stretch after a sharp drop doesn't tell you the move is over.

The line above is Friday's high, then the 200-day average. Below, it's Saturday's low, then the low of the week. Monday brings three Fed speakers, and Tuesday brings CPI.

Inside Premium today

Yesterday's result: the "break" case from Thursday's plan triggered at 8 a.m. and reached all four of its zones. The "range" case was wrong, and the "higher" case never triggered.

Today in Premium:

  • Thursday's plan, graded. The best call of the week, and what it still got wrong.

  • 28 BTC key levels, each with its source, now centered on the new range.

  • Order book walls: Coinbase and Kraken, with the bids that sit just above the lows.

  • Liquidation clusters: a thin map after Thursday's $1 billion flush.

  • A plan for the weekly close and Monday's Fed speakers.

  • Whales & institutions: ETF flows by fund, CME positioning and what Glassnode says about holders.

  • Options and funding check.

🔒 Scenario C: BTC hourly close below $7█,███ → next zones $7█,███ and $7█,███

Premium readers get all of this below 👇

Premium: Scorecard (Thursday's plan, Nov 5)

Thursday's plan was written at about 6:15 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $80,243. A was "higher" (an hourly close above $80,844). B was "range" ($80,053 to $80,694). C was "break" (an hourly close under $80,053). The daily close was at 7 p.m. ET, Friday 00:00 UTC. There was no Friday or Saturday plan, so nothing else is scored.

C · break: triggered, and reached all four zones. The 7 a.m. hour, which held the Bank of England decision, closed at $79,587, well below the yellow band ($79,973 to $80,133), so the trigger was clean. The 9 a.m. hour, which held Hammack and Barkin, reached $79,107 and $78,762 and closed at $78,207, under the third zone, $78,232. The 10 a.m. hour reached $77,424 with a low of $75,431. The low of the day was $75,035 in the 6 p.m. hour. C's "wrong if" line (a daily close back above $80,844) never fired.

B · range: wrong. The daily close of $75,653 was under B's own limit ($78,622).

A · higher: not triggered. No hourly close got above $80,844.

ETH: all four C zones ($2,377, $2,327, $2,311 and $2,290) were reached, and the low was $2,202.

What we got right: the pre-Bank-of-England line. I wrote that a close under the weekly open before 8:30 would take BTC to the Oct 24 low and the Sunday-night high. The 7 a.m. close was under it, and both zones were hit within two hours. I also ranked C above A because the December hike odds were high and two hawkish Fed speakers were on the calendar, and both spoke hawkishly.

What we got wrong: the plan stopped at $77,424 and Bitcoin went about 3% further. Four zones were not enough on a day this big. I also wrote that the biggest long cluster just under the trigger meant a dip into it was "not yet a break." The price went straight through that cluster, and about $1 billion of positions were liquidated on the way down.

What we learned: a liquidation cluster is fuel, not a floor. When the plan's first zone is under 1% away and the data calendar is heavy, I'll add a "break extends" line with the next two cited levels. And a close 0.5% under the trigger is a real break, not a yellow light.

Premium: Key levels (cited)

28 BTC levels, each with its source.

BTC, above:

  • $87,249: the Oct 2 high (Coinbase daily candle).

  • $83,556: October's open (Coinbase).

  • $82,007: the Oct 19 weekly open (Coinbase).

  • $81.5K: the average cost basis of the US spot ETFs (Glassnode, The Week On-chain, Oct 28).

  • $81,131: this week's high, Wednesday's 10 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).

  • $80,428: Wednesday's close, 7 p.m. ET (Coinbase).

  • $80,053: the Oct 26 weekly open (Coinbase).

  • $79,107: the Oct 24 low (Coinbase).

  • $78,762: the Sunday-night high of Nov 1 (Coinbase).

BTC, the middle:

  • $78,232: this week's open (Coinbase).

  • $78,000: a put spread target Derive flagged (CoinDesk, Oct 16), and a round number.

  • $77.7K: the True Market Mean, an on-chain average-cost line (Glassnode, Nov 4).

  • $77,424: October's close and November's open (Coinbase).

  • $77,337: Tuesday's close, 7 p.m. ET (Coinbase).

  • $76,553: Monday's low, 2 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).

  • $76,497: the 200-day average (Decrypt, Nov 6).

BTC, below:

  • $76,256: Friday's high, 7 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).

  • $76,141: October's low, Oct 30 (Coinbase).

  • $75.7K: the short-term-holder cost basis, the average cost of coins bought in the last 155 days (Glassnode, Nov 4).

  • $75,545: a horizontal support. FXStreet says a daily close under it opens $70,000 (FXStreet, Oct 30).

  • $75,453: Saturday's low, 4 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).

  • $75,451: Strategy's average purchase price for its 849,327 BTC (Strategy filing of Nov 2, via The Block; its next filing may change it).

  • $75,035: Thursday's low, 6 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).

  • $74,722: this week's low, Friday's 10 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).

  • $74,000: the 23.6% retracement FXStreet named as a stop if the 200-day average broke (FXStreet, Oct 26).

  • $73,000: a downside target Wintermute named (Decrypt, Nov 6).

  • $70,000: FXStreet's path if $75,545 breaks on a daily close (FXStreet, Oct 30).

  • $68,000: Wintermute's second downside target (Decrypt, Nov 6).

The order book walls and liquidation clusters have their own blocks below.

ETH:

  • $2,777: the October high (Coinbase).

  • $2,448: this week's high, Wednesday's 10 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).

  • $2,377: the Oct 29 high (Coinbase).

  • $2,327: the Oct 26 weekly open (Coinbase).

  • $2,311: ETH's realized price, the on-chain cost basis (FXStreet, Oct 24).

  • $2,290: the Oct 28 low (Coinbase).

  • $2,272: this week's open (Coinbase).

  • $2,252: November's open (Coinbase).

  • $2,250: Friday's high, 5 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).

  • $2,223: Tuesday night's low (Coinbase).

  • $2,205: this week's low area, Friday 10 a.m. ET hour, and a support from FXStreet (Coinbase, FXStreet Oct 24).

  • $2,202: Thursday's low, 6 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).

  • $2,170: October's low (Coinbase).

  • $1,972 and $1,828: deeper supports (FXStreet, Oct 24).

Premium: Order book walls (snapshot 7:52 a.m. ET)

These are standing buy and sell orders on Coinbase (BTC-USD) and Kraken (BTC/USD), taken at about 7:52 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $75,840. They are not trades, and they can be pulled in a blink. Thursday's sell walls were all above a price that is now far below, so there is nothing to compare.

Balance within 1% of the price. Coinbase has 175.4 BTC of bids and 198.8 BTC of asks. Kraken has 240.0 BTC of bids and 264.1 BTC of asks. Both venues show about 10% to 13% more sell orders than buy orders. That is nearly balanced.

Walls below (bids):

  • Coinbase 75,486.14: 44.6 BTC ($3.37M), the biggest bid on Coinbase's book. It sits just above Saturday's low and Strategy's average cost. The odd price suggests an algorithm or a large account (inference).

  • Kraken 75,667.60: 26.4 BTC ($2.00M). Kraken also has 13.3 BTC at 75,520.00, a round-number bid ($1.01M) near the same area.

  • The smaller bids stack between 75,577 and 75,719 on Coinbase, at 12 to 16 BTC each.

Walls above (asks):

  • Coinbase 76,194.65: 51.6 BTC ($3.93M), the biggest ask on Coinbase's book. It sits between October's low and Friday's high, with 17.4 BTC more at 76,148.77 just under it.

  • Kraken 76,019.40: 26.3 BTC ($2.00M), and 15.0 BTC at 75,919.50.

  • Kraken 77,447.10: 20.0 BTC ($1.55M), next to November's open. Coinbase has 14.8 BTC at the round 78,000.00 ($1.15M).

Whale or market maker? The first five levels on each side are nearly empty on both venues, so I see no market-maker ladder. The big orders look deliberate, but I can't see who placed them.

Walls to watch (not predictions): the 44.6 BTC bid above Saturday's low, and the 51.6 BTC ask above October's low.

Caveats: walls can be spoofed, icebergs hide size, ETF and over-the-counter buying never shows in the book, and two venues are a small slice of the market. These walls are worth $1M to $4M each. Friday's ETF outflow was more than a hundred times that.

Premium: Liquidation clusters (CoinGlass, about 8:05 a.m. ET)

This is CoinGlass's liquidation map for Binance BTC/USDT (Model 1, 24-hour window), read at about 8:05 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $75,840. The bars are CoinGlass's model estimates of where leveraged positions would be force-closed. They are not actual positions. Clusters that the price has already traded through disappear from the map.

The map is thin. Thursday's flush cleared about $1 billion, and the whole map today holds about $90M of shorts above and about $90M of longs below, each over about 4% of price.

Shorts above (forced buys):

  • The nearest cluster is $76,363 ($6.2M). The biggest is $76,573 ($12.9M). Next come $76,521 ($6.7M), $76,625 ($5.4M) and $76,730 ($4.6M), then a run of $3M to $5M clusters between $77,149 and $77,411.

  • Added up from the price: about $29M of shorts by $76,573, about $51M by $77,149, and about $89M up to $79,036.

Longs below (forced sells):

  • The nearest cluster is $75,211 ($4.6M). The biggest is $75,053 ($12.0M). Then come $75,106 ($6.3M), $75,001 ($6.7M) and $74,896 ($5.1M).

  • Added up from the price: about $41M of longs by $75,001, about $52M by $74,844, about $78M by $74,110, and about $90M down to $72,591.

Which side is the bigger pool? About even. Within about 1.5% of the price, each side holds about $51M. A pool this small is not much fuel on its own.

How it lines up with the other blocks:

  • The biggest long cluster ($75,053) sits right on Thursday's low, and under the 44.6 BTC Coinbase bid.

  • The biggest short cluster ($76,573) sits just above Monday's low and the 200-day average, and above the 51.6 BTC Coinbase ask.

  • The long clusters below $75,000 are thin, so a break of Thursday's low would have little liquidation fuel until the $74,000 area.

Caveats: Binance BTC/USDT only, one model, a 24-hour window, a single snapshot. After a flush this size, the map mostly shows positions opened since.

Premium: Scenario plan (weekly close and Monday's Fed speakers)

These are conditional scenarios, not predictions or buy/sell calls. A "break" needs an hourly close, not a wick. A close within about 0.1% of a trigger is a yellow light: check the next hour. I'm writing this at about 8:30 a.m. ET Sunday. Weekend trading is thin, so I weigh it less. The daily close is tonight at 7 p.m. ET, Monday 00:00 UTC, which is also the weekly close.

Where BTC starts: about $75,840, in the middle of the weekend's band. ETH starts near $2,236.

The drivers, in order of when they land:

  1. Today: nothing scheduled. Thin weekend liquidity is the main risk in both directions.

  2. Monday 8:40, 10:00 and 12:15: Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin.

  3. Monday: Strategy's filing, and a 3-year auction at 1:00 p.m.

  4. Tuesday: CPI at 8:30 a.m.

  5. Binance: withdrawal reopenings "by the end of next week."

A · Higher: BTC makes an hourly close above $76,256.

  • BTC: $76,497 → $77,337 → $77.7K → $78,232. ETH: $2,250 → $2,272 → $2,290 → $2,311.

  • This scenario is wrong if: BTC falls back under $75,453 on an hourly close within a day.

  • The yellow band is $76,180 to $76,332. The 51.6 BTC sell wall and the first short clusters sit just above it, so a close there needs a second look.

B · Range: BTC stays between $75,453 and $76,256.

  • BTC: that band, about 1% wide, with the current price inside it. ETH: $2,218 to $2,250.

  • This scenario is wrong if: BTC has a daily close (tonight 7 p.m. ET, Monday 00:00 UTC) under $74,722 or above $77,337.

C · Break: BTC makes an hourly close under $75,453.

  • BTC: $75,035 → $74,722 → $74,000 → $73,000. If the break extends: $70,000. ETH: $2,205 → $2,202 → $2,170 → $1,972.

  • This scenario is wrong if: BTC slips under $75,453 but the daily close is back above $76,256.

  • The yellow band is $75,378 to $75,528. The 44.6 BTC bid and Strategy's average cost sit inside it, so a close inside the band is only a yellow light. Thursday showed that clusters don't stop a break, so I'm treating the clusters as fuel, not as a floor.

What could drive each one. A: a quiet Sunday, a short squeeze into the thin short clusters, or dovish Monday remarks. C: a weak Asian open Monday, more ETF selling, or hawkish Fed speakers. With thin weekend books and a hot labor market, I'm ranking C and B above A. A weekend close carries little weight without ETF data.

Before Monday's Fed speakers, in both directions:

  • If BTC closes an hour above Friday's high before 8:40, then the next zones are the 200-day average and Tuesday's close. A hawkish Bowman would turn the 200-day average back into a ceiling.

  • If BTC closes an hour under Saturday's low before 8:40, then the next zones are Thursday's low and the week's low. A dovish Bowman would need to reclaim Friday's high first.

What I'd skip: the first 15 minutes after each Fed speaker, and the Sunday 8 p.m. ET hour, when the weekly candle rolls and thin books move.

Premium: Whales & institutions

Five items, each dated, plus what I couldn't find.

1. ETF flows by fund (TFTC, checked 5:00 a.m. ET today; IBIT included, each day sums). Thursday Nov 5: −$430.2M: IBIT −$105.0M, FBTC −$199.9M, GBTC −$49.9M, EZBC −$32.9M, HODL −$23.6M, ARKB −$18.9M. Friday Nov 6: −$411.9M: IBIT −$403.0M, BITB −$20.5M, ARKB −$20.1M, GBTC −$11.1M, FBTC +$42.8M. Week (Mon–Fri): −$1.28B, with IBIT about −$1.2B and FBTC about +$93M. The Block says Bitcoin ETFs are now −$914.1M for 2026, with total assets of about $95.9B. Ether ETFs lost $365.3M on the week, their sixth straight negative week, and −$405.6M for the year. Solana ETFs lost $26.3M. The on-chain side is redemption plumbing, not BlackRock selling. I found no BlackRock or Coinbase Prime transfers.

2. How much the average ETF buyer is up or down. Glassnode's US spot ETF cost basis was $81.5K on Oct 28. At today's price that's about 7% under water, against about 1.5% on Thursday morning. The cost basis moves every day, so treat it as a snapshot.

3. CME positioning (CFTC, positions as of Tuesday Nov 3, released Fri Nov 6; OAK Research): leveraged funds cut both their longs (−773 contracts) and their shorts (−2,161). OAK doesn't print the net figure. My arithmetic puts it at a net short of about 2,590, down from 3,979, and OAK says net short is now 14.8% of open interest, against 19.1% a week earlier. Asset managers' net long fell to 2,403 from 2,754, a drop of 12.7%. Open interest fell by 3,264 contracts to 17,527. Falling hedge-fund shorts can mean basis trades are being closed, which is money leaving the ETFs, not a bullish bet. The next report is delayed to Monday Nov 16 (data as of Nov 10).

4. Holders (Glassnode, The Week On-chain, Nov 4, data as of that morning). Short-term holders went from nearly all in profit in early October to about 38% in profit. The True Market Mean is $77.7K and the short-term-holder cost basis is $75.7K, both in the key levels. Glassnode flagged $73K to $76K as the band to watch and the biggest overhead liquidation cluster near $87K. This is four days old and has moved since.

5. The thief (Elliptic, via The Block, Nov 6). About $124 million of stolen tokens was swapped to BTC. About $2.85 billion is frozen, about $3.11 billion is still in attack-linked addresses, and a "negligible amount" has been cashed out. Elliptic expects more ETH-to-BTC conversion.

Not found today: any Strategy filing for Nov 2–8 (Strategy's site blocked my request; the Monday filing is the next check), other treasury companies' purchases, Trump Media's follow-up, CryptoQuant's whale holdings, Arkham and Lookonchain transfers, Hyperliquid whales, Q3 13F filings (due Monday Nov 16, positions as of Sept 30), and the MSCI decision on treasury companies.

Premium: Options and funding check

DVOL is about 40.4 on Deribit, up from 37.0 on Thursday morning and in line with Saturday's 40.2. Implied volatility rose with the crash and hasn't come down.

Funding (OKX, 8h): BTC +0.0034% and ETH +0.0052%, down from +0.0100% on Thursday. Longs are paying much less, so the crowd has thinned.

Open interest is higher than Thursday morning while the price is lower, so positions are being added on the way down. After a $1 billion liquidation it also means the map is rebuilding.

Options: I found no options-flow reporting this week. The next monthly expiry is Nov 27.

What I'm watching

  • The weekly close at 7 p.m. tonight, and the Asian open after it.

  • Whether the 44.6 BTC bid above Saturday's low holds on any dip.

  • Monday's Fed speakers and Strategy's filing, then Tuesday's CPI.

  • Whether ETFs sell again Monday.

  • Binance's withdrawal reopenings and any move in the thief's coins.

  • The final midterm counts, and any news on Trump Media's transfer.

  • The next scorecard is Monday's edition, with the weekend scorecard.

— Pro Swing Trader

This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.

Sources: Coinbase Exchange candles · Coinbase order book · Kraken order book · CoinGlass – Liquidation Heatmap · Decrypt – Bitcoin hits 11-week low as AI stocks sell off · CoinDesk – Bitcoin steadies near $76,000 after AI-led selloff · CoinDesk – Daybook: over $1 billion in bullish bets liquidated · The Block – Bitcoin ETFs flip negative for 2026 · The Block – Binance hackers swap stolen tokens · The Block – Binance CFO steps down · The Block – Treasury cuts off MEXC Global · The Block – Gnosis Pay data breach · The Block – Treasury walks back travel rule · The Block – crypto in 401(k) plans · CoinDesk – Binance users in Europe told to pull crypto · CoinDesk – Democratic sweep and the CLARITY Act · investingLive – Nasdaq 100 suffers worst day since 2020 · investingLive – Bank of England raises rate to 4.00% · investingLive – Fed's Hammack · investingLive – Fed's Barkin · investingLive – Americas market news wrap, payrolls beat · Trading Economics – non-farm payrolls · Trading Economics – consumer confidence · Trading Economics – US stock market · Trading Economics – US calendar · TFTC – BTC ETF flows, November 2026 · OAK Research – Bitcoin COT · Glassnode – The Week On-chain, Week 44 · Glassnode – The Week On-chain, Week 43 · SEC – Form 13F FAQ · FXStreet – Top 3 price predictions (Oct 30) · FXStreet – Bitcoin tests $80K support (Oct 26) · FXStreet – technical levels (Oct 16 to 24) · CoinDesk – bitcoin put spread and options (Oct 16) · OKX – funding and open interest · DefiLlama – stablecoins · Deribit – DVOL · alternative.me – Fear & Greed