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Pro Swing Trader Daily Brief
Sunday, November 1, 2026
Good morning. Bitcoin closed October at $77,424, down 7.3% on the month, and it's near $77,810 now. The 24 hours to Saturday's 8 p.m. close were quiet: a range of about $690, from $76,955 to $77,645.
The news was elsewhere. Binance started paying out again in the early hours of Sunday. And on Saturday the FBI confirmed North Korea's role in the theft. It's 7:15 a.m. ET, and US clocks went back an hour last night.
What changed since Saturday's edition
Withdrawals. I wrote that Binance's target was Sunday. It restarted in phases from 6:00 UTC (1:00 a.m. ET), bitcoin first (CoinDesk).
Attribution. I wrote that TRM Labs linked the hack to North Korea "with high confidence." The FBI has now confirmed TraderTraitor, a North Korean unit.
Frozen funds. I wrote about $3 billion, Binance's figure. CoinDesk's FBI report says more than $2.4 billion, and Chainalysis says about $2.8 billion. Treat it as $2.4 billion to $3 billion.
The total. I wrote $6.3 billion. TRM, Chainalysis and Decrypt say about $6.4 billion.
The stolen bitcoin. I wrote that it hadn't moved. That was true as of 2 a.m. ET Friday, and I couldn't find a newer status.
Binance: reopened, and who did it
Withdrawals reopened in phases. Phase one ran 6:00 to 9:00 UTC: bitcoin first, then ETH, USDT, USDC, BNB and XRP. More networks follow after "security and stability checks." I found no reported problems (CoinDesk, Nov 1).
Binance says it has replaced about 95% of the stolen crypto, up from 90% on Saturday. It says it, not its users, will absorb the loss, and it will restore its SAFU fund to about $1 billion (CoinDesk).
Proof of reserves. Binance posted a snapshot from midnight UTC on Oct 31 showing coverage of 100% or more for the named tokens. The full cryptographic proof is due Monday, or "by Nov. 3," depending on the report. It's not published yet.
The FBI. On Saturday it confirmed TraderTraitor, North Korea's state-backed unit, and asked DeFi, THORChain, RPC and instant-exchange operators to block the addresses it listed: more than 600 ETH addresses, just under 20 BTC addresses and one SOL address (CoinDesk).
Where the money goes. The FBI says the hackers are converting the stolen funds mainly into ether. Chainalysis says they used JustLend receipt tokens on Tron to avoid freezes, then bridged off Tron and swapped to ETH. Its CEO says the trail covers "thousands of addresses," possibly tens of thousands (The Block).
What was taken, per TRM: 18,270 BTC (about $1.47 billion), 200,630 ETH, 1.875 billion USDT, 823 million USDC, 233.46 million XRP and 970,500 SOL.
What we don't know: where the 18,270 BTC is now, how much has been recovered beyond the frozen funds, and when the later phases of the restart finish. Binance hasn't named the attacker itself. President Trump said "we don't know" if North Korea was behind it.
Separately, Chainalysis said its own systems were breached and that "non-sensitive" customer data, names and emails, was accessed. It says that's not related to the Binance theft (The Block).
October in numbers
Bitcoin: opened at $83,556 and closed at $77,424, down 7.3%. The high was $87,249 on Oct 2 and the low was $76,141 on Oct 30 (Coinbase).
Ether: opened at $2,684 and closed at $2,253, down 16.1%. The low was $2,170 on Oct 29.
ETFs: US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $515.0 million in October, with 13 up days and 9 down days. Friday's −$643.3M was the biggest day (TFTC).
Stocks: the Nasdaq fell 5.30%, its worst month since March 2025. The S&P 500 fell 0.93% and the Dow rose 1.70% (investingLive).
Fear & Greed: 34 this morning (fear), up from 30 on Friday and Saturday.
Where Bitcoin stands
October's close (Saturday 8 p.m. ET): $77,424, up 0.32% on the day.
The 24 hours to Saturday 8 p.m.: $76,955 (overnight, midnight hour) to $77,645.
Since the close: a low of $77,370 and a high of $78,126 (4 a.m. ET hour). It's near $77,810.
The new week opens at 7 p.m. ET tonight (Monday 00:00 UTC). Last week's open was $80,053, so Bitcoin is about 3% under it.
Ether closed October at $2,253, up 0.52% on Saturday, and is near $2,265. BNB is near $713 (CoinDesk). There's no ETF data on weekends: Friday's outflow is still the latest number.
Market dashboard
BTC | $77,424 (Saturday 8 p.m. ET, October close) · +0.32% · about $77,810 at 7:15 a.m. ET Sunday |
ETH | $2,253 (October close) · +0.52% · about $2,265 at 7:15 a.m. ET |
Funding rate (OKX, 8h) | BTC +0.0068% · ETH about 0.0000% |
Open interest | OKX BTC perps $2.71B (34,752 BTC) |
BTC ETF flow | Friday −$643.3M (latest, TFTC) · October −$515.0M |
Stablecoins (USDT + USDC) | $251.5B · 7-day −$2.8B |
Whale line | 18,270 stolen BTC, current location unconfirmed (see above) |
Fear & Greed (alternative.me) | 34 (fear) · Saturday 30 |
DXY · US 10Y · Gold | — · 4.93% (Friday) · $3,874 (Friday) |
Open interest is the total value of futures contracts still open. It's 1.3% higher than Saturday morning with the price flat to slightly up. The data doesn't say whether the new positions are long or short. For scale, liquidations peaked at $1.57 billion in the 24 hours after the hack (CoinDesk).
Ether's funding rate has gone from negative on Saturday to about zero, so the shorts who were paying are no longer paying much.
The week ahead (ET)
Monday's edition has the full calendar. The key events, with consensus from Trading Economics and investingLive:
Sunday, 7 p.m.: the new week's open.
Monday: ISM manufacturing at 10:00 a.m. (expected 54.7, prior 54.5). Fed's Goolsbee speaks at 11:15 a.m. Apple and Palantir report after the close.
Tuesday, Nov 3: the midterm elections. AMD and Super Micro report after the close. JOLTS job openings are due at 10:00 a.m. (expected about 7.1M).
Wednesday: ADP at 8:15 a.m. (expected +65K), ISM services at 10:00 a.m. and the Treasury refunding announcement at 8:30 a.m.
Thursday: the Bank of England decides, and jobless claims are due (expected 197K).
Friday, Nov 6, 8:30 a.m.: the October jobs report. Expected payrolls are about +63K to +65K, unemployment 4.2%, hourly earnings +0.3%.
investingLive's week-ahead preview says House control is a 220–215 Republican majority now. FXStreet writes that Democrats are expected to take the House, that the Senate is a close call, and that a split Congress is the most market-friendly result. I haven't found a crypto-specific midterm call.
Today's takeaway
Bitcoin spent the weekend inside a $700 range, and the Binance news didn't move it. The line to watch above is $78,177, which Sunday's high missed by $51. Below, the first support is $76,955, the overnight low, then the 200-day average near $76,400.
Tonight's new-week open and Monday's ISM at 10 a.m. are the next events. Binance's full proof of reserves lands around Monday or Tuesday.
Yesterday's result: the "higher" case triggered and fell $51 short of its first zone. The "range" case was right at the Saturday close. The "break" case never triggered.
Today in Premium:
Saturday's plan, graded.
26 BTC key levels, each with its source, including this weekend's range and October's close.
ETH after a −16% month, with its on-chain cost basis and the cited levels around it.
A plan for tonight's week open and Monday, with the ISM data, Apple and Palantir, and the Binance proof of reserves.
Options and funding check: implied volatility back under 40, funding cooling, and the stolen coins as a whale watch.
🔒 Scenario C: BTC hourly close below $7█,███ → next zones $7█,███ and $7█,███
Premium readers get all of this below 👇
Saturday's plan was written at about 8:15 a.m. ET with Bitcoin near $77,450. A was "higher" (an hourly close above $77,699). B was "range" ($76,955 to $77,699, wrong on a daily close under $76,141 or above $78,177). C was "break" (an hourly close under $76,141).
A · higher: triggered, then stalled. The hourly closes after 11 p.m. ET were $77,648, $77,664 and $77,765, all inside the yellow band ($77,622 to $77,777). The next hour, ending about 2 a.m., closed at $77,859, above it. That's a confirmed trigger. The first zone was $78,177 and the high since is $78,126, $51 short. A's "wrong if" line (a close back under $76,955) didn't fire.
B · range: right. Bitcoin stayed inside $76,955 to $77,699 for about 18 hours after the plan, until the 2 a.m. ET hour. The daily close of $77,424 was inside the "wrong if" limits ($76,141 to $78,177), so it wasn't wrong.
C · break: not triggered. The lowest low after the plan was $77,222 and the lowest hourly close was $77,275. Nothing went near $76,141.
ETH: the first A zone, $2,259, was reached, with a high of $2,275. $2,311 and $2,327 weren't. The break zones weren't touched, and the low since Saturday morning is $2,233.
What we got right: the plan called a thin weekend as "the most likely" outcome, and it was.
What we got wrong: nothing material in the levels. Two facts I printed on Saturday moved: the frozen total and the hack's size. They're listed at the top of this edition.
What we learned: a close inside a yellow band is a pending trigger, and the next hour decides it. That rule worked here.
26 BTC levels, each with its source.
BTC, above:
$87,249: the Oct 2 high (Coinbase daily candle).
$85,000: a horizontal barrier in FXStreet's technical note (AI-assisted, Oct 16).
$83,556: October's open (Coinbase).
$82,313: the average cost basis of the spot ETFs (Glassnode, via CoinDesk, Oct 23).
$82,007: the Oct 19 weekly open (Coinbase).
$81,890: Thursday's high (Coinbase).
$80,694: the Oct 16 low (Coinbase).
$80,053: last week's open (Coinbase).
$79,255: Monday's low, Oct 26 (Coinbase).
BTC, the middle:
$78,634: Friday's high (Coinbase).
$78,177: the low of Thursday's 4 p.m. ET hour, when the hack began (Coinbase).
$78,126: Sunday's high so far, 4 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$78,000: a put spread target Derive flagged (CoinDesk, Oct 16), and the max pain price of the Oct 30 expiry (CryptoTicker, Oct 29).
$77,699: Thursday's 7 p.m. hour low (Coinbase).
$77,645: the high of the 24 hours to Saturday 8 p.m. (Coinbase).
$77,424: October's close and November's open (Coinbase).
$77,370: the low since the October close (Coinbase).
$77,128: the 100-day average (FXStreet, Oct 19; it has moved since).
BTC, below:
$76,955: the overnight low, midnight ET Saturday (Coinbase).
$76,634: the lowest hourly close of Thursday night (Coinbase).
$76,400: the 200-day average (FXStreet, Oct 30).
$76,141: October's low, Oct 30 (Coinbase).
$75,545: a horizontal support. FXStreet says a daily close under it opens $70,000 (FXStreet, Oct 30).
$75,000: a liquidation cluster flagged by Glassnode (Oct 7).
$74,000: the 23.6% retracement FXStreet named as the next stop if the 200-day average broke (FXStreet, Oct 26).
$70,000: FXStreet's path if $75,545 breaks on a daily close (FXStreet, Oct 30).
ETH:
$2,777: the October high (Coinbase).
$2,390 and $2,377: Wednesday's high and Thursday's high (Coinbase).
$2,327: last week's open (Coinbase).
$2,311: ETH's realized price, the on-chain cost basis. ETH is below it (FXStreet, Oct 24).
$2,290: Wednesday's low (Coinbase).
$2,275: the high since Saturday morning (Coinbase).
$2,233: the low of the 24 hours to Saturday 8 p.m. (Coinbase).
$2,218: the low of Friday afternoon (Coinbase).
$2,205: a support from FXStreet (Oct 24).
$2,170: October's low, Thursday's 9 p.m. hour (Coinbase).
$1,972 and $1,828: deeper supports (FXStreet, Oct 24).
These are conditional scenarios, not predictions or buy/sell calls. A "break" needs an hourly close, not a wick. A close within about 0.1% of a trigger is a yellow light: check the next hour. I'm writing this at about 7:30 a.m. ET Sunday. A weekend close without ETF data carries little weight.
Where BTC starts: about $77,810. ETH starts near $2,265.
The drivers, in order of when they land:
Today: thin liquidity, Binance's later restart phases, and any move in the stolen coins. The FBI's address list means freezes can land at any hour.
7 p.m. tonight: the new week's open. Last week's was $80,053.
Monday, 10:00 a.m.: ISM manufacturing (54.7 expected). Goolsbee speaks at 11:15 a.m.
Monday after the close: Apple and Palantir.
Monday to Tuesday: Binance's full proof of reserves.
Tuesday: the midterm elections.
A · Higher: BTC makes an hourly close above $78,177.
BTC: $78,634 → $79,107 → $79,255.
ETH: $2,290 → $2,311 → $2,327.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC falls back under $77,424 on an hourly close within a day.
B · Range: BTC stays between $77,424 and $78,177.
BTC: $77,424 to $78,177, with $77,699 and $78,000 inside.
ETH: $2,233 to $2,290.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC has a daily close (tonight 7 p.m. ET, Monday 00:00 UTC) under $76,955 or above $78,634.
C · Break: BTC makes an hourly close under $76,955.
BTC: $76,634 → $76,400 → $76,141.
ETH: $2,218 → $2,205 → $2,170.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC slips under $76,955 but the daily close is back above $77,424.
If it's a near-miss. For C, an hourly close between $76,878 and $77,032 is a yellow light, not a break. For A, $78,099 to $78,255 is the yellow band, and Sunday morning's high sits inside it. Check the next hour either way.
What could drive each one. A: a quiet restart, a soft ISM and a steady Nasdaq at Monday's open. C: stolen coins moving to exchanges, a restart problem, or a hot ISM that revives the December hike talk. B is the default on a thin Sunday.
Before the 7 p.m. open, in both directions:
If BTC closes an hour above $78,177 before the open, then the next zones are $78,634 and $79,107. The new week would open about $1,900 under last week's open.
If BTC closes an hour under $76,955 before the open, then the next zones are $76,634 and $76,400. A bounce would need to reclaim $77,424 first.
What I'd skip: the minutes right after a Binance announcement, and the first hour after the 7 p.m. open.
DVOL is about 39.2 on Deribit, down from 40.0 on Saturday and 42.0 at the Thursday peak. It's still above the 36.1 of last Thursday morning, but implied volatility is coming back down.
Funding (OKX, 8h): BTC +0.0068%, down from +0.0100% on Saturday. ETH about 0.0000%, up from −0.0086%. Longs are paying less, and the ether shorts have stopped paying.
Open interest: OKX BTC perp open interest is 34,752 BTC ($2.71B), up 1.3% from Saturday morning's 34,313 BTC and 12.1% above Wednesday's 30,998. Leverage keeps rebuilding after the liquidation, and the data doesn't say which side.
Options: no big expiry this week that I could find. The next big one is the Nov 27 monthly.
Whales: the stolen coins are the whale watch. TRM lists 18,270 BTC, 200,630 ETH, 1.875 billion USDT, 823 million USDC, 233.46 million XRP and 970,500 SOL. The FBI says the hackers are converting mostly to ether, and Chainalysis says they bridged off Tron. Elliptic estimates about $3.3 billion is still under the attackers' control (Decrypt). A large ETH sale would be new supply, and a big move to an exchange would be a flag. I couldn't find the current location of the 19 BTC wallets.
Stablecoins: supply is $251.5B, down $2.8B in a week.
What I'm watching
Tonight's 7 p.m. week open against $80,053, and whether $78,177 is reclaimed.
Whether $76,955 holds.
Binance's later restart phases and the full proof of reserves.
Any movement of the stolen BTC, and the FBI's address blocks.
Monday's ETF flow, after Friday's $643 million exit.
ISM at 10 a.m. Monday, then Apple and Palantir after the close.
Monday's edition scores this weekend and has the full week-ahead calendar.
— Pro Swing Trader
This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.
Sources: Coinbase Exchange candles – prices, opens, highs and lows · CoinDesk – Binance opens crypto withdrawals in phases (Nov 1) · CoinDesk – FBI confirms North Korea's role in the Binance hack (Oct 31) · CoinDesk – Binance says it has replaced 90% of stolen crypto (Oct 31) · CoinDesk – Bitcoin stolen from Binance tops Tesla's holdings (Oct 31) · The Block – Chainalysis hacked, customer data accessed (Oct 31) · Decrypt – Binance hack: everything you need to know · TFTC – BTC ETF flows, October 2026 · investingLive – Nasdaq worst month since March 2025 · investingLive – Week ahead: elections, rate decisions and jobs · investingLive – Earnings next week · FXStreet – Week ahead: nonfarm payrolls and US midterm elections · Trading Economics – US calendar · FXStreet – Top 3 price predictions (Oct 30) · FXStreet – Bitcoin tests $80K support (Oct 26) · FXStreet – technical levels (Oct 16 to 24) · CryptoTicker – Oct 30 options expiry · OKX – funding and open interest · DefiLlama – stablecoins · Deribit – DVOL · alternative.me – Fear & Greed · CoinDesk – bitcoin put spread and options (Oct 16)