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Pro Swing Trader Daily Brief
Thursday, October 29, 2026
Good morning. Yesterday I told you the Fed decision was priced in and the real question was December.
The Fed delivered, and Bitcoin rose roughly $900 in the two hours after 2:00 p.m. It touched $81,715 in the 4 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
Then, after the stock market closed, Alphabet reported. Within five hours Bitcoin was back under $80,000, and it touched $79,586.
So the Fed wasn't the story. The after-hours earnings were.
The Fed: a hold, with two votes for a hike
The Fed kept its rate at 3.75% to 4.00%, as expected. The vote was 10–2. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both voted for a quarter-point hike (CoinDesk, CNN).
The statement upgraded growth from "solid" to "strong" (investingLive).
Chair Warsh argued that stronger productivity could explain why strong growth isn't raising inflation, and that earlier hikes are starting to bite. He left the next move to the data.
December odds barely changed. A hike was about 88% priced before the meeting and about 82% to 85% after (investingLive, Bloomberg).
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.02% (CoinDesk, Motley Fool).
Warsh said less about December than the market feared, and Bitcoin rose for a few hours after it.
Then Alphabet
After the close, Alphabet shares fell about 10% in after-hours trading. Search revenue of $63.4B missed expectations, and free cash flow was negative $9.1B. Google Cloud revenue more than doubled, but investors focused on the spending (investingLive).
Microsoft went the other way: shares rose about 3.5%. Azure grew 48%, and the company said it expects $170B of capital spending in fiscal 2027 but will stay cash-flow positive.
By this morning, Nasdaq futures were down 1.4%, S&P 500 futures down 0.5%, and Dow futures up 0.4%. Samsung added to it: its shares fell more than 5% after its chip unit missed expectations, and Kospi fell more than 2% (CoinDesk).
Bitcoin's slide started in the 9 p.m. ET hour. About $356 million of crypto futures were liquidated over 24 hours, including $205M of longs. Bitcoin futures made up $94M of the total and Ether futures $72M (CoinDesk).
Alphabet isn't a crypto company. The link is the same one as always: crypto trades like a tech stock when tech sells off.
Where Bitcoin stands
Wednesday's close (8 p.m. ET): $81,249, up 0.56%.
The slide: the 8 p.m. ET hour closed at $81,000, the 9 p.m. hour at $79,905, and the 10 p.m. hour made the low of $79,586 (Coinbase).
This morning: about $79,990, just under this week's open of $80,053.
The week's range so far is $79,255 to $81,715. Monday's low of $79,255 is still the floor, and today's $79,586 didn't break it.
Ether closed Wednesday at $2,357, and it's near $2,315 this morning. XRP, Solana and Hyperliquid's token each fell 2% to 4% overnight (CoinDesk).
ETFs: a third inflow day
US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $137.3M on Wednesday, almost all of it into BlackRock's IBIT (Farside, SoSoValue). That's the third inflow day in a row: $110.3M, $176.0M and $137.3M make $423.6M.
October's total is now about +$111M. That's TFTC's figure through Tuesday, plus Farside's number for Wednesday. TFTC hadn't posted Wednesday when I checked.
Ether ETFs lost $21.4M.
Wall Street: green before the bell
S&P 500: +0.28% to 7,743.98.
Nasdaq Composite: +0.27% to 26,549.85.
Dow: +0.19% to 52,475.10.
It was a third winning day in a row for all three (CNBC). Oracle was the standout, up 10.7%. The gains came before Alphabet reported, so futures are giving some back this morning.
Gold is about $4,000 to $4,070. It whipsawed on the Fed decision and is fighting to hold $4,000 (investingLive).
Brent is about $114.6, down about 0.7%. Vice President Vance reached out to an Iranian security official, and Semafor reports the administration is in talks on a temporary peace deal. President Trump said the outcome is unclear (Trading Economics, investingLive). If talks fail, strikes could resume after the Nov 3 midterms.
Today's data: GDP and PCE
Both land at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the PCE print is the one the Fed watches most.
PCE inflation (September): expected +0.5% on the month and +3.6% on the year (from 3.4%). Core: +0.3% and +3.1% (investingLive).
Third-quarter GDP: estimated at 3.2% (CoinDesk's calendar), from 2.2%.
Jobless claims: estimated at 196,000.
A hot PCE reading would back up a December hike, which is already mostly priced in. The risk may be a soft one. If it comes in cooler, traders could question how comfortable they've gotten with another hike (investingLive).
Also on the radar
Coinbase reports after the close today. Wall Street is split on whether trading is rebounding, after Robinhood's crypto revenue fell 55% (CoinDesk). Strategy and Amazon report after the close too.
Bitcoin-backed mortgages are coming to Canada. The lender, APX, says property and crypto collateral will be handled separately, but borrowers could face forced sales if Bitcoin falls (CoinDesk).
A history note. Bitcoin has averaged gains of more than 50% in the 12 months after US midterms, and the S&P 500 about 15%. Bitcoin's pattern may mostly reflect its four-year halving cycle (CoinDesk). It's history, not a forecast.
Market dashboard
BTC | $81,249 (Wednesday 8 p.m. ET close) · +0.56% · about $79,990 at 5:30 a.m. ET Thursday |
ETH | $2,357 (Wednesday close) · +0.42% · about $2,315 at 5:30 a.m. ET Thursday |
Funding rate (OKX, 8h) | BTC +0.0034% · ETH +0.0060% (small, positive; BTC's is down from +0.0100%) |
Liquidations (24h) | $356M (CoinDesk) · longs $205M · BTC $94M, ETH $72M |
Open interest | OKX BTC perps $2.60B (32,491 BTC) · +4.8% vs Wednesday morning |
BTC ETF flow | Wednesday +$137.3M (Farside) · October about +$111M |
ETH ETF flow | Wednesday −$21.4M |
Stablecoins (USDT + USDC) | $252.1B · 7-day −$3.1B |
Whale line | No new confirmed wallet move |
Fear & Greed (alternative.me) | 51 (neutral) · Wednesday 51 |
DXY · US 10Y · Brent · Gold | — · about 5.02% · about $114.6 · about $4,000 to $4,070 |
Open interest is the total value of futures contracts still open. It rose almost 5% while the price fell, and funding dropped. That mix usually means more traders opened short bets than long ones, though the data doesn't say that directly.
Stablecoin supply has now fallen about $3.1B in a week. That's a slow leak, and it's worth watching.
Today and this week (ET)
8:30 a.m.: GDP, PCE inflation and jobless claims.
9:15 a.m.: the ECB decision, with Lagarde's press conference at 9:45.
After the close: Coinbase, Strategy and Amazon report.
Friday, 8:30 a.m.: the employment cost index. The Deribit options expiry is at 4 a.m. ET, and the Bank of Japan also decides this week.
Saturday, Oct 31, 8 p.m.: October's close. The month opened at $83,556.
Sunday, Nov 1: US clocks go back one hour. Tuesday, Nov 3: US midterm elections.
Today's takeaway
Yesterday's range was $80,053 to $81,694, and Bitcoin held it until the after-hours earnings. This morning it's at the bottom edge, with the weekly open right above it.
The line to watch above is $80,053, and then $80,694. Below, it's $79,586, then Monday's low of $79,255. Data at 8:30, then tech earnings at 4 p.m. and after.
Yesterday's result: the "range" branch held through the day, and the "break lower" branch triggered after the close. The first zone was reached on a wick, and by a close it missed by $61.
Today in Premium:
The plan for 8:30 a.m. and the tech earnings after the close. What a hot PCE does, and what a soft one does.
27 BTC key levels, each with its source, including last night's low.
ETH after $2,290: which cited levels sit above and below.
Options and funding check: funding that fell by two-thirds, open interest that rose, and the $12B Friday expiry sitting on the price.
🔒 Scenario C: BTC hourly close below $7█,███ with a hot PCE → next zone $7█,███–$7█,███
Premium readers get all of this below 👇
Wednesday's plan had three branches, written before the Fed decision. A was "relief" (a relaxed Fed and good tech results, plus an hourly close above $81,694). B was "range" (between $80,053 and $81,694, wrong on a daily close under $79,255 or above $82,007). C was "break lower" (a hawkish December hint, weak tech results or a Brent spike, plus an hourly close under $80,053).
B · range: right on the day. The 8 p.m. ET daily close of $81,249 was inside the range, and neither "wrong if" fired. The high of $81,715 was only $21 over the top edge, and no hourly close was above $81,694. The best close was $81,502.
A · relief: not triggered. The pre-Fed line ("an hourly close above $81,694 before 2:00 p.m.") didn't fire either.
C · break lower: it triggered after the close. The 9 p.m. ET hour closed at $79,905, under $80,053. The condition was the tech one: Alphabet fell about 10% after hours, with Samsung adding to it. The Fed was not the driver. Bitcoin rose after the decision.
C · zones: one of two, and by a wick. The first zone was $79,664 to $79,676. The low of $79,586 went through it, but the hourly closes stayed above: the lowest was $79,737, only $61 above the top of the zone. By the near-miss rule that was a yellow light. The second zone, $79,366, wasn't reached.
C · "wrong if" (daily close back above $80,694): still open. The next daily close is tonight at 8 p.m. ET.
ETH: range right, then break. The plan's B range was $2,327 to $2,384, and ETH traded $2,319 to $2,390 on Wednesday (Coinbase). Overnight it touched $2,290, which reached both of the plan's C zones ($2,327 and $2,294).
What we got wrong: I wrote that the Fed was the whole day. The big move came from the after-hours earnings, which hit between the 8 p.m. daily close and midnight. I'd listed Alphabet and Microsoft as drivers, but not as the likely main event.
What we learned: earnings after the close can break a level before anyone updates a plan. From now on, the plan names the after-hours event and the Asian open as separate risks, and states which hour they land in.
27 BTC levels, each with its source.
BTC, above:
$86,996: the Oct 5 high (Coinbase daily candle).
$85,000: a horizontal barrier in FXStreet's technical note (AI-assisted, Oct 16), and the focus of October 30 call trading (CoinDesk).
$84,856: the Oct 21 high (Coinbase).
$83,556: October's open (Coinbase).
$82,500: the level CoinDesk says Bitcoin must reclaim (CoinDesk, Oct 28).
$82,313: the average cost basis of the spot ETFs (Glassnode, via CoinDesk, Oct 23).
$82,007: the Oct 19 weekly open (Coinbase).
$81,715: Wednesday's high, 4 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$81,182: Tuesday's high (Coinbase).
$81,081: the Oct 20 low (Coinbase).
$80,859: the Oct 25 high (Coinbase).
$80,790: the Oct 22 low (Coinbase).
$80,694: the Oct 16 low (Coinbase).
BTC, the middle:
$80,271: Wednesday's low, 9 a.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$80,053: this week's open (Coinbase).
$80,000: the psychological level, and the largest put cluster for the October 30 expiry (Crypto.com).
BTC, below:
$79,664–$79,676: the SuperTrend level (FXStreet, Oct 19) and the Oct 15 low (Coinbase).
$79,586: Thursday's low so far, 10 p.m. ET hour (Coinbase).
$79,366: Tuesday's low (Coinbase).
$79,255: Monday's low (Coinbase).
$79,107: the Oct 24 low, the weekend's floor (Coinbase).
$79,000: October 30 options max pain on Deribit (CryptoTicker, Oct 17, so twelve days old). Other sources put it between $76,000 and $78,000, so treat it as a rough map.
$78,661: the 61.8% retracement of the move from the August 2024 low to the October 2025 high (FXStreet, AI-assisted, Oct 16).
$78,000: a large bitcoin put spread flagged by Derive targets it (CoinDesk, Oct 16).
$77,128: the 100-day EMA (FXStreet, Oct 19).
$75,968: the 200-day EMA (FXStreet, Oct 19).
$75,000: a liquidation cluster flagged by Glassnode (Oct 7).
ETH:
$2,781 and $2,636: the next hurdles above (FXStreet, Oct 24).
$2,600: FXStreet's upside target (Oct 19).
$2,548 and $2,538: a horizontal barrier and the 20-day EMA (FXStreet, Oct 16–24).
$2,470: the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, per FXStreet's Oct 24 note.
$2,408: the Oct 19 weekly open (Coinbase).
$2,390: Wednesday's high (Coinbase).
$2,361: Tuesday's high (Coinbase).
$2,327 and $2,325: this week's open and the Oct 18 low (Coinbase).
$2,313 and $2,311: the Oct 14 low (Coinbase) and ETH's realized price, the on-chain cost basis (FXStreet, Oct 24).
$2,294 and $2,290: Tuesday's low and Thursday's low so far, which is also Monday's low (Coinbase).
$2,276: the Oct 24 low (Coinbase).
$2,205, $1,972 and $1,828: deeper supports if $2,311 breaks (FXStreet, Oct 24).
These are conditional scenarios, not predictions or buy/sell calls. A "break" needs an hourly close, not a wick. A close within about 0.1% of a trigger is a yellow light: check the next hour. I'm writing this at 5:35 a.m. ET, before the 8:30 data and four hours before any US stock opens.
Where BTC starts: near $79,990, just under this week's open of $80,053. ETH starts near $2,315.
The drivers, in order of when they land:
8:30 a.m.: PCE (expected +0.5% on the month, core +0.3%), GDP (estimate about 3.2%) and jobless claims (196,000).
9:30 a.m.: the US open, with Nasdaq futures down about 1.4% after Alphabet.
Midday: Iran headlines. Brent near $114.6, with talks reported.
After 4 p.m.: Coinbase, Strategy and Amazon. The Amazon result lands between the 8 p.m. daily close and midnight, the same window that moved things last night.
Friday 4 a.m.: the options expiry, with max pain near $79,000 and the $80,000 put cluster.
A · Relief: soft PCE or a tech bounce, and BTC makes an hourly close above $80,053.
BTC: $80,694 → $81,081 → $81,715 → $82,007.
ETH: $2,327 → $2,390 → $2,408.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC clears $80,053 but falls back under $79,664 on an hourly close within a day.
B · Range: in-line data, BTC between $79,586 and $80,694.
BTC: $79,586 to $80,694, with $79,664 and $80,053 inside.
ETH: $2,290 to $2,327.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC has a daily close (8 p.m. ET) under $79,255 or above $81,081.
C · Break lower: hot PCE, a tech selloff at the open or a Brent spike, and BTC makes an hourly close under $79,586.
BTC: $79,366 → $79,255 → $79,107 → $79,000 → $78,661.
ETH: $2,276 → $2,205.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC slips under $79,586 but the daily close is back above $80,053.
If it's a near-miss. An hourly close between $79,506 and $79,666 is a yellow light, not a break. Check the next hour before treating $79,366 as live.
What the data could do. A hot PCE backs a December hike that is already about 84% priced, so the first reaction could be small. The bigger risk is a cooler number, which could make traders rethink the hike and move yields lower (investingLive). I wouldn't trade the first 15 minutes after 8:30. The US open and 4 p.m. close matter more.
Combinations: hot PCE plus a weak Nasdaq open is the cleanest C. Soft PCE plus a tech bounce is A. In-line data and a quiet open is B. Amazon after the close can undo any of them, so I wouldn't treat this afternoon as the end of it. The expiry adds a pull toward $79,000 to $80,000 into Friday morning.
Before the 8:30 data, in both directions:
If BTC closes an hour above $80,694 before 8:30, then the next zones are $81,081 and $81,715. A hot PCE would turn $80,694 back into a ceiling.
If BTC closes an hour under $79,586 before 8:30, then the next zones are $79,366 and $79,255. A bounce would need to reclaim $80,053 first.
DVOL is about 36.1 on Deribit this morning, down from 37.3 on Wednesday's close. That's the lowest in the two weeks I've been charting. Implied volatility fell as the price fell, which says options traders aren't paying up for protection.
Funding (OKX, 8h): BTC +0.0034%, ETH +0.0060%. BTC's is down from +0.0100% yesterday, so longs are paying a third as much to hold. That, with the liquidations, says some longs left.
Open interest: OKX BTC perp open interest is 32,491 BTC ($2.60B), up 4.8% from 30,998 on Wednesday morning, while the price fell. More positions opened on the way down. With funding lower, they're more likely new shorts than new longs, but the data doesn't say.
Liquidations: $356M in 24 hours, with $205M in longs and about $151M in shorts. (CoinDesk).
Next big expiry: Friday, October 30, 4 a.m. ET. Estimates run from about $11.7B (Crypto.com) to $12.2B (CryptoTicker, Oct 17, with max pain at $79,000). Bitcoin is trading about $1,000 above that max pain, and right on the $80,000 put cluster. Max pain is a positioning measure, not a forecast.
Whales: no confirmed wallet move. The company events to watch are Strategy's results after the close, which will show whether it resumed buying after last week's pause, and Coinbase's.
What I'm watching
8:30 a.m.: PCE, GDP and jobless claims, and the 10-year yield against 5.02%.
Whether $80,053 is reclaimed, and whether $79,586 holds.
The US open: Nasdaq futures after Alphabet.
Coinbase, Strategy and Amazon after the close.
Iran headlines, and Brent against $115.
Tomorrow's ETF number: a fourth inflow day, or a pause?
The next scorecard is tomorrow's edition.
— Pro Swing Trader
This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.
Sources: Coinbase Exchange candles – prices, opens, highs and lows · CoinDesk – Bitcoin dips below $80,000 as Samsung-led tech jitters and a hawkish Fed weigh on crypto · CoinDesk – Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, as expected · CoinDesk – Coinbase earnings preview · CoinDesk – Bitcoin-backed mortgages in Canada · CoinDesk – Bitcoin and the S&P 500 after midterms · investingLive – Warsh and December hike bets · investingLive – PCE preview · investingLive – US futures and Alphabet earnings · investingLive – gold and the FOMC · CNN – Fed holds, two dissent · CNBC – stock market today, Oct 28 · Motley Fool – Stock Market Today, Oct 28 · KuCoin – Bitcoin spot ETFs, Oct 28 flows · TFTC – BTC ETF flows, October 2026 · Trading Economics – Brent · CoinDesk – Crypto Week Ahead · OKX – funding and open interest · DefiLlama – stablecoins · Deribit – DVOL · alternative.me – Fear & Greed · CryptoTicker – October 30 options expiry · FXStreet – technical levels (Oct 16 to 24) · CoinDesk – bitcoin put spread and options (Oct 16)