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Wall Street was closed on Saturday night. The chip bets weren't
Pro Swing Trader Daily Brief
Sunday, October 18, 2026
Good morning.
Picture Saturday, 5:21 p.m. in New York. The stock market has been shut since Friday afternoon. Nobody is trading Nvidia, SanDisk or Micron on the exchange.
And yet, in the next ten minutes, about $52 million of bets on chip stocks got wiped out.
How? Crypto exchanges let you trade stock contracts around the clock. They're called perpetual futures. They track a share price, but they never close. So when the real market is asleep, the contract has nothing to anchor to, and a handful of big sell orders can push it around (CoinDesk).
Here's the part that matters to us. Over roughly the same 18 minutes, Bitcoin slid about $800, from $81,507 to $80,700. Ether fell about 2.6%, from $2,417 to $2,354 (Coinbase).
That's timing, not proof. I can't tell you one caused the other. But it's a good reminder that crypto never sleeps, and the weekend is when odd things happen.
By Sunday morning, Bitcoin was back near $82,000. Let's unpack it.
What actually happened to the chip bets
The sell-off started on Binance, where the first big SanDisk and Micron sell orders landed at 5:21 p.m. ET. Within a second, orders hit Hyperliquid, where a venue called Trade XYZ lists the stock contracts (Tread.fi's David Jeong, via CoinDesk).
The damage, per CoinGlass:
About $51.6 million was liquidated in total, and about $38 million of it was traders betting on higher prices.
SOXL, a fund that triples the daily moves of chip shares, took about $12.7 million of it.
SanDisk and SK Hynix contracts lost about $10.8 million each.
The backdrop: memory-chip shares already had a rough week on worries about new competition from Chinese chipmaker CXMT. And with US markets closed, Trade XYZ's rules let it set its own reference prices until real stock quotes return on Monday.
Which brings us to tomorrow.
Monday has a double anniversary
Tomorrow, October 19, is 39 years since Black Monday. In 1987, the S&P 500 fell more than 20% in one day (Yale Journal of Financial Crises).
Friday was the anniversary of the day before that crash, and the Nasdaq dropped more than 2%. You'll see the comparison all over your timeline.
I'm not treating a date as a forecast. But it tells you the mood. Wall Street opens Monday after a rough Friday, a weekend scare and $110 oil. Everyone will be watching the first hour.
Bitcoin held the line, again
Saturday's low was $80,700. Friday's low was $80,694. Those two numbers are six dollars apart.
Two tests, almost the same price, and buyers showed up both times. Saturday closed at $81,378, down just 0.15% (Coinbase).
For the week, Bitcoin is about 2% below Monday's open of $83,678. Tonight's weekly close is at 8 p.m. ET (Monday 00:00 UTC), and that's the number the weekly charts will print.
The ETF scoreboard, for the month
There are no ETF flows on weekends, so here's the bigger picture. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have taken out a net $617 million in October so far (TFTC):
Oct 1 and 2: inflows of about $293 million.
Week of Oct 5: −$681 million.
Week of Oct 12: −$229 million.
Two bad weeks in a row. A third would make it a trend worth naming.
Also on the radar
Richard Heart was arrested in Turkey. The Hex founder was detained on Wednesday, and Turkey's Justice Minister confirmed it Saturday. Police seized $7.15 million in cash and six cold wallets. Hex fell about 14% in 24 hours (The Block, CoinGecko).
Nine US companies are objecting to tokenized versions of their stock. CoreWeave, Broadcom and Verizon are among them. The venue is OKXICE, a joint project of OKX and the New York Stock Exchange's parent company. Tokenized stock is now a roughly $3.5 billion market, up from about $680 million in January (The Block).
No confirmed hack or exploit turned up in my search for Saturday and Sunday.
Market dashboard
BTC | $81,378 (Sat close) · −0.15% · about $81,960 at 8 a.m. ET Sunday |
ETH | $2,400 (Sat close) · −0.84% · about $2,416 at 8 a.m. ET Sunday |
Funding rate (OKX, 8h) | BTC +0.0026% · ETH +0.0085% (small, neutral) |
Liquidations (24h) | — total not found · $51.6M of chip-stock bets Saturday evening (CoinGlass via CoinDesk) |
Open interest | OKX BTC perps $2.49B (30,402 BTC) · −0.1% vs Saturday |
BTC ETF flow | No weekend flows · October so far −$617.2M (TFTC) |
ETH ETF flow | — |
Stablecoins (USDT + USDC) | $255.9B · 7-day −$1.2B |
Whale line | No new confirmed move |
Fear & Greed (alternative.me) | 53 (neutral) · Saturday 55 · Friday 63 |
DXY · US 10Y · Brent · Gold | Markets closed. Friday: about 102 · about 5.1% · $109.86 · about $4,166 |
Open interest is the total value of futures contracts still open. It barely moved, so traders aren't piling in or running out.
The week ahead, in plain English
There's no Fed meeting this week. The Fed is in its quiet period until after its October 27–28 meeting. So the market will take its cues from three places: oil, earnings and Bitcoin's own levels.
All times are Eastern. The calendar below comes from the usual weekly calendars (eoption and StockTitan), and the data releases don't have consensus numbers yet.
Monday: builder confidence (NAHB) at 10:00 a.m. And Black Monday's anniversary.
Tuesday: housing starts at 8:30 a.m., pending home sales at 10:00. GE Aerospace reports before the open, Netflix after the close.
Wednesday: a 20-year Treasury auction at 1:00 p.m. Texas Instruments, IBM, Meta and Tesla all report after the close.
Thursday: jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. Procter & Gamble reports before the open.
Friday: flash PMIs at 9:45 a.m., University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations at 10:00.
And two things I'm keeping an eye on all week: Brent crude near $110, up more than 5% last week, and Strait of Hormuz flows, which were about 11.6 million barrels a day against a normal 17.2 million (Trading Economics).
Today's takeaway
Bitcoin spent the weekend doing something boring: staying inside a box. But the box has two floors, and they're six dollars apart.
Tonight's weekly close and Monday's Wall Street open are the next tests. If the $80.7K area holds a third time, the story stays "choppy". If it breaks, it's a different week.
Yesterday's result: our "chop" scenario was the one that played out. BTC stayed inside $80,694 to $82,831, but only just, and Ether briefly broke its range. We also missed a driver, and I'll show you which.
Today in Premium:
The week-start plan. What happens if $80,694 breaks, and what happens if $82,831 finally goes?
22 BTC key levels, each with its source, including Saturday's new low.
ETH after it touched $2,354: which cited levels sit above and below.
Options and funding check: what Deribit's volatility index and funding are saying.
🔒 Scenario C: BTC hourly close below $8█,███ and the Nasdaq down again on Monday → next zone $7█,███–$8█,███
Premium readers get all of this below 👇
Saturday's plan had three branches. A was "relief" (Brent under $110 and an hourly BTC close above $82,831). B was "chop" (BTC inside Friday's $80,694 to $82,831 box). C was "stress" (an hourly close under $80,694).
B was the live branch so far. The weekly close tonight decides the final score.
B · BTC $80,694 to $82,831: right, barely. Saturday's range was $80,700 to $81,655. The $80,700 low came at 5:39 p.m. ET, $6 above the floor.
B · ETH $2,390 to $2,492: mostly right. ETH's low was $2,354.38, below the range, though its lowest hourly close was $2,377.93 and it finished Saturday at $2,400.
A · relief: not triggered. The highest hourly close since Saturday was $82,036, short of $82,831.
C · stress: not triggered. The lowest hourly close was $81,041. The $80,700 low was a wick, not a close under $80,694.
C · ETH's first level, $2,355: touched. ETH hit $2,354.38 at 5:39 p.m. ET and bounced. The next levels ($2,313 and $2,204) weren't reached.
Pre-Monday break, both directions: not triggered so far. No hourly close above $82,831 and none under $80,694.
Brent and the Nasdaq: not scorable. Markets were closed.
What we got wrong: the plan listed Brent, Monday's Nasdaq and the Sunday close as drivers, but not weekend stock-contract flows. BTC dropped $800 at 5:21 p.m. ET while chip contracts were being liquidated. I can't prove one drove the other, but I should have listed it as a possible driver.
What we learned: weekend plans now include "stock contracts trading while Wall Street is shut" as a driver to watch. And I'll score wicks and closes separately, because ETH's $2,390 floor looked broken by a wick but held on closes.
22 BTC levels, each with its source.
BTC, above:
$86,996: the Oct 5 high (Coinbase daily candle).
$85,000: a horizontal barrier in FXStreet's technical note (AI-assisted, Oct 16). 21Shares' Matt Mena named it too (The Block, Oct 14).
$84,062–$84,262: last week's highs. Wednesday $84,062, Tuesday $84,070, Monday $84,262 (Coinbase).
$83,678: last week's open (Monday 00:00 UTC, Coinbase).
$83,556: October's open (Coinbase).
$82,831: Friday's high (Coinbase).
$82,184: Sunday's high so far (Coinbase, 8 a.m. ET).
BTC, the middle:
$82,000–$83,000: support that broke on Wednesday (Bitcoin.com, Oct 14).
$81,500: the cost basis of the spot ETFs, as cited by analysts via FXStreet (Oct 15).
$81,000–$81,250: the largest visible block of Binance spot bids (Glassnode, Oct 7).
BTC, below:
$80,700: Saturday's low, hit at 5:39 p.m. ET (Coinbase).
$80,694: Friday's low (Coinbase).
$80,443: the 50-day EMA (FXStreet technical note, Oct 16, AI-assisted).
$80,315: the Oct 8 low (Coinbase).
$80,000: the psychological level buyers have defended (CoinDesk). Wincent's Paul Howard said a break could open $75,000 (The Block, Oct 14).
$79,664–$79,676: the SuperTrend level (FXStreet, Oct 14) and Thursday's low (Coinbase).
$78,661: the 61.8% retracement of the move from the August 2024 low to the October 2025 high (FXStreet, AI-assisted, Oct 16).
$78,000: a large bitcoin put spread flagged by Derive targets it (CoinDesk, Oct 16). The "True Market Mean" is also near $78,000 (analysts cited by FXStreet).
$78K–$79K: October 30 options max pain (Crypto Briefing, Oct 8 data, so about ten days old).
$76,584: the 50-week average (FXStreet, Oct 16).
$75,751–$76,824: the 200-day and 100-day EMAs (FXStreet, Oct 16).
$75,000: a liquidation cluster flagged by Glassnode (Oct 7).
ETH:
$2,781 and $2,636: the next hurdles above (FXStreet, Oct 16, AI-assisted).
$2,548 and $2,538: a horizontal barrier and the 20-day EMA (FXStreet, Oct 16).
$2,534.47: last week's open (Coinbase).
$2,492: the 50-day EMA, and Friday's high of $2,491.64 (FXStreet, Coinbase).
$2,438: Saturday's high (Coinbase).
$2,414 and $2,411: supports in FXStreet's Friday note. Sunday morning's price is about $2,416 (Coinbase).
$2,390: Friday's low (Coinbase).
$2,354.38: Saturday's low, 5:39 p.m. ET (Coinbase).
$2,355–$2,356: a horizontal floor and the 100-day EMA (FXStreet, Oct 15 and 16).
$2,313.07: last week's low, hit Wednesday night (Coinbase).
$2,204, $1,971 and $1,827: deeper supports if $2,355 breaks (FXStreet, Oct 15).
These are conditional scenarios, not predictions or buy/sell calls.
Where BTC starts: near $81,960, mid-range. ETH starts near $2,416.
The drivers:
Brent crude when oil futures reopen Sunday evening. It last settled at $109.86. A jump is a risk-off signal, a drop is relief.
Monday's Nasdaq open, after Friday's 2%+ fall and the weekend chip-contract scare. Real stock prices reconnect with the contracts at the open.
Bitcoin's Sunday 8 p.m. ET close against $80,694 and $82,831.
A · Relief: Brent steadies and BTC makes an hourly close above $82,831.
BTC: $83,000 → $83,556–$83,678 (the opens) → $84,062–$84,262 → $85,000.
ETH: $2,492 → $2,534 → $2,548.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC clears $82,831 but can't hold above $82,000 at a daily close.
B · Chop: Brent flat, stocks stabilise, BTC stays in its box.
BTC: $80,694 to $82,831.
ETH: $2,354 to $2,492.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC closes a day under $80,694 or above $83,000.
C · Stress: Brent keeps climbing or the Nasdaq falls again, and BTC makes an hourly close under $80,694.
BTC: $80,443 → $80,000 → $79,664–$79,676 → $78,661 → $78,000 → $76,584–$76,824 → $75,000.
ETH: $2,355 → $2,313 → $2,204.
This scenario is wrong if: BTC slips under $80,694 but the daily close is back above $81,000.
Combinations: a steady oil open plus a calm Nasdaq is the cleanest case for B. A Brent jump plus a weak Wall Street open is C, and it could move quickly because the $80.7K area has now been tested twice. A firm Nasdaq with falling oil is the best case for A.
Before the Monday open, in both directions:
If BTC closes an hour above $82,831 before Monday's open, then a calm Asian session means a run at $83,556 to $84,262. A bad one means sell-the-news risk at the same zone, like Wednesday's spike that faded at $84,000.
If BTC breaks under $80,694 before Monday's open, then a weaker Asia means a fast move to $80,000 and $79,664. A steady Asia means a bounce, but BTC would need to reclaim $81,000 first.
DVOL is 38.61 on Deribit (Sunday morning), up from 37.93 at Saturday's close. That's still calm, and the options market isn't pricing a crash.
Funding (OKX, 8h): BTC +0.0026%, down from +0.0058% at the previous reading. ETH +0.0085%, up from +0.0021%. ETH is the one to watch. Its longs are paying more even though the price has slipped, which is a small sign of leaning long into weakness. It's not a crowded trade yet.
Open interest: OKX BTC perp open interest is 30,402 BTC ($2.49B), basically flat on Saturday.
Next big expiry: Friday, October 30, 4 a.m. ET. Crypto Briefing's Oct 8 data had about $11B notional with max pain at $78,000 to $79,000. It's ten days old and I haven't refreshed it, so treat it as a rough map. Max pain is a positioning measure, not a forecast.
New options flow: I found no fresh large trades since Friday's bitcoin put spread aimed at $78,000 (CoinDesk, Oct 16).
Whales: no new confirmed move today. The latest I have is the wallet that held through the March 2020 crash and moved about $378M of BTC on Monday, October 12 (CoinDesk, Oct 13). Where it went and why isn't confirmed. Moved isn't sold.
What I'm watching
Sunday's 8 p.m. ET weekly close against $80,694 and $82,831.
Brent when oil futures reopen Sunday evening.
Monday's Nasdaq open, and whether the stock-contract venues snap back to real prices.
ETH holding $2,354, Saturday's low.
Monday's ETF flows. The next scorecard is Monday's edition, with the weekend close as the first item.
— Pro Swing Trader
This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a buy/sell signal.